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Frontier Centre for Public Policy

The PM as Leaf’s coach

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From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Lee Harding

The budget had a $7.5 billion surplus when the Trudeau Liberals were sworn into power on November 4, 2016 and they turned it into a $5.4 billion deficit by the end of March.

The meme where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau becomes the new coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who lost in the NHL playoffs to Boston May 4th, has far more depth than people realize.

Previous head coach Sheldon Keefe was fired, leaving a prime job open.

“With my unique coaching style, the cup will win itself,” was Trudeau’s quote in the meme, his fictional words matched by a fake picture of him in a Leafs jacket.

The woes of both Canada and the Maple Leafs involve leadership and economics.

In the Leafs’ case, the players salary cap is $83.5 million. Last year, the team paid four players $11 million each, leaving fiscal scraps for the other 16 players.

Prior to becoming prime minister, Trudeau was asked how committed he would be to a balanced budget.

“The commitment needs to be a commitment to grow the economy, and the budget will balance itself,” Trudeau said, on February 11, 2014, as he criticized the Harper government approach.

“They’re artificially fixing a target of a balanced budget in an election year,” Trudeau explained.

“And that’s irresponsible. What you need to do is create an economy that works for Canadians, works for middle class Canadians, allows young people to find a job, allows seniors to feel secure in their retirement.”

Trudeau pledged to run modest deficits and a return to balance in the final year of his majority term, which, ironically, was what he condemned Conservatives of doing in the interview. We are still waiting for that balanced budget, of course.

The budget had a $7.5 billion surplus when the Trudeau Liberals were sworn into power on November 4, 2016 and they turned it into a $5.4 billion deficit by the end of March.

Prior to taking power, Trudeau argued that historically low interest rates were a good reason to borrow and spend on nation-building infrastructure. If the debt-to-GDP ratio kept dropping, good enough.

That excuse of low interest rates is gone, yet the deficits remain. When this fiscal year ends next March, the federal debt will be double what it was when the Trudeau Liberals took power. Deep deficits and higher lending rates have made debt servicing costs nearly double in the past two years alone.

Among the 38 nations in the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, Canada’s growth in real GDP per capita was the fifth-weakest over 2019-22. Last November, Canada was named as one of only eight advanced countries where real incomes were lower than before the pandemic, as inflation outpaces growth.

Worse, the OECD projects Canada will be the worst performing economy among the 38 advanced economies over both 2020-30 and 2030-60.

Even before capital gains taxes were hiked in the recent budget, investors knew Canada wasn’t a good place to grow wealth. The country lost $225 billion in capital investment from 2016 through 2022.

Whether it’s a winning team or a winning economy, ignoring financial realities steals success.

Trudeau’s economic plan has relied on a burgeoning, high-paid public sector, almost limitless immigration, carbon taxes, and green spending. He has put all the money on the wrong players.

Canada was altogether different in 1967, the last time the Leafs won a cup. Since then, the first and second prime ministers Trudeau have eroded this country’s social and fiscal moorings, leaving us conflicted and financially burdened instead of celebrating our success.

So, when will Canada get a new coach?

Lee Harding is a Research Fellow for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

COVID-19

Will We Fall For The Same Old PCR Tricks Again?

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From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By John Carpay

As with the number of COVID-19 “cases,” the number of “Covid deaths” proclaimed by politicians, government health officials and government-funded media is also based on highly unreliable PCR testing, using an undisclosed number of cycles.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. How long will Canadians continue falling for the same media tricks that they fell for during the years of lockdowns and vaccine passports?

“Alberta’s COVID-19 death toll more than 4 times higher than flu over past year,” exclaimed the CBC on September 9. This was followed two days later by Global News exclaiming: “New Alberta COVID data highlights value of getting newly formulated vaccine once available: expert.”

These media stories claim there were 23,933 COVID-19 “cases” in the past year, with 6,070 people hospitalized “for COVID.” Media claim that 732 Albertans died of COVID-19 during the past year, compared to 177 from the flu. University of Calgary professor Craig Jenne describes this as “continual evidence that COVID-19 is not just another flu” and laments that viruses “continue to take lives at a really unacceptable rate.”

It’s the same narrative that we were fed in 2020 and the years that followed: creating and then maintaining unfounded fear of COVID-19. This unnecessarily high level of fear, in turn, generated support for the violations of our Charter freedoms of association, expression, religion, conscience, mobility, and peaceful assembly, and the right to choose freely what will or will not be injected into our bodies.

What is missing from these stories by government-funded media is significant and relevant.

Firstly, government-funded media make no mention of the number of cycles used in the PCR (polymerase chain reaction) testing that was used to generate these 23,933 so-called “cases” of COVID-19.

The percentage of people testing “positive” for COVID-19 by way of the PCR test depends on the number of times that a viral remnant in a person’s nose or throat is doubled (amplified). If a COVID-19 viral remnant is amplified 40 times, almost everyone will test positive for COVID-19. Conversely, if that very same viral remnant is amplified only 20 times, very few people will test positive for COVID-19. The PCR test does not and cannot determine whether someone is sick with COVID-19, or a spreader of COVID-19.

As explained by expert witness Dr. Joel Kettner in Gateway v. Manitoba:[1] “the outcome of a PCR test depends on Cycle thresholds (Ct), which is the number of cycles of amplification needed to strengthen a weak signal, so as to enable the identification of the amino acid sequence of the virus being tested for. The higher the Ct to obtain a positive signal, the lower the volume of genetic material in the sample.”[2]

In the same court case, expert witness Dr. Jay Bhattacharya explained that the unavoidable errors in PCR testing render the PCR test unfit for public health decision-making: “A reliance on a test that is run up to 40 cycles, (or any number of cycles higher than 30) — is certain to produce a very large proportion of false positive outcomes. Lockdowns that are imposed on the basis of ‘case’ counts derived from PCR tests will be only marginally related to the threat posed by the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”

Neither Alberta Health Services nor the media will inform the public about how many times a viral remnant was doubled to generate these 23,933 “cases” of COVID-19. A large but willfully undisclosed number of these COVID-19 “cases” pertain to people who are not sick with COVID-19 and not spreading COVID-19. This includes large numbers of people who have had COVID-19 and who have fully recovered, acquiring natural immunity along the way. Governments which claim to love science should freely and readily disclose this information to the public, as well as to each individual receiving her or his PCR test result. And yet, since 2020, Canada’s federal and provincial governments have kept this information a state secret, typically divulged only under duress in court, when governments get sued by Justice Centre lawyers who defend Charter freedoms.

In Gateway v. Manitoba, for example, government officials admitted under oath that at least 40% of their “Covid cases” were people who were not sick with COVID-19 and not spreading it. Governments and their health authorities can easily generate high numbers of “Covid cases” simply by running PCR tests at 40 (or more) cycles, and encouraging (or requiring) large numbers of people to take the PCR test.

As with the number of COVID-19 “cases,” the number of “Covid deaths” proclaimed by politicians, government health officials and government-funded media is also based on highly unreliable PCR testing, using an undisclosed number of cycles.

The second glaring omission from government-funded media reports is the relevant context. Over 33,000 Albertans die each year, which is what you might expect in a province of 4.8 million people. The leading causes of death in Canada are cancer, heart diseases, lung diseases and strokes. This fact did not change with the arrival of COVID-19 and lockdowns in 2020. If it’s true that 732 Albertans died of COVID-19 (and thanks to PCR testing we really don’t know) that would be just over 2% of deaths in Alberta, with 87% of these deaths among people 70 and over. Compare this 2% with the more than 10% of deaths in Alberta from “ill-defined and unknown” causes in 2021. Professor Craig Jenne states that viruses “continue to take lives at a really unacceptable rate.” The same could be said of cancer, heart diseases, lung diseases and strokes, not to mention suicides, alcoholism, obesity and car accidents.

The omission of relevant facts, combined with a blind and erroneous faith in the accuracy of PCR testing, is what government-funded media used in 2020 to spread unfounded fear. They are trying to do the same thing now. Will we fall for it again?

First published in the Western Standard here.

John Carpay, B.A., LL.B. is president of the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms.

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Alberta

Any Downturn in Alberta’s Economy Would Inevitably Drag Canada’s Down With It

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From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Troy Media

Is anyone paying attention?

Canada is heading straight for an economic iceberg, and the rest of the country doesn’t seem to grasp the gravity of the situation. Alberta – long the engine of Canada’s prosperity thanks to its oil and gas sector – is facing a serious decline because the Trudeau government is obsessed with its net-zero policies. And if Alberta falters, the ripple effects will drag down the entire nation. But are we too preoccupied with federal climate targets to recognize the risks staring us in the face?

The Trudeau government’s push for net-zero emissions by 2050 may look noble on paper, but the real-world cost could be catastrophic. The numbers don’t lie: according to a recent column by Troy Media contributor Lennie Kaplan, Alberta’s oil production could drop by a staggering 54 percent by 2050. That’s not just a provincial problem; it’s a national economic emergency waiting to happen.

Let’s cut through the jargon. Alberta makes up about 15 percent of Canada’s GDP. If Alberta’s economy shrinks by $32 billion – as projected – it would trigger a 1.2 percent drop in Canada’s GDP. For context, that’s a multi-billion-dollar hole in a country whose economy is, itself, already in severe decline.

Does Ottawa think a shrinking economy will put us in a stronger position to innovate and grow? Or are they content with turning Alberta into a sacrificial lamb on the altar of climate policy, ignoring the fact that this will make Canada less competitive on the world stage?

Then there’s the job market. Alberta’s energy sector employs thousands and indirectly supports tens of thousands more across Canada. By 2050, again according to Kaplan, Alberta could shed 198,000 jobs – five percent of its workforce. These aren’t just oil rig workers; they’re engineers, construction crews, transport workers, and more.

It gets worse. When Alberta’s economy shrinks, industries from coast to coast that depend on Alberta’s vitality will also take a hit. If even 10 to 15 percent of those job losses trickle across the country, we’re looking at another 20,000 to 30,000 Canadians joining the unemployment line. Yet, where is the urgency to address this looming crisis?

Alberta isn’t just a provincial powerhouse – it’s also a major contributor to federal revenues. Between 2025 and 2050, the province’s contributions could drop by $221 billion due to declining oil and gas revenues. That’s less money for healthcare, infrastructure, and social programs from coast to coast.

For a federal government that already struggles to balance its books, the loss of up to $40 billion in federal tax contributions from Alberta is a fiscal disaster in the making. Where do they expect to make up that shortfall? Higher taxes? Slashed services? Or maybe another round of federal borrowing to kick the can down the road?

Alberta’s oil and gas isn’t just a provincial asset – it’s a critical part of Canada’s trade balance. In 2022, energy exports made up 20 percent of Canada’s total exports. Cut that by more than half, and you’re gutting Canada’s international trade position.

A $70 to 80 billion hit to export revenue could balloon the country’s trade deficit, further devaluing the Canadian dollar and making imports more expensive. In short, this isn’t just bad news for Alberta – it’s an economic calamity that could send shockwaves through every corner of the country.

And let’s not forget the federal equalization program. Alberta has long been a “have” province, contributing far more than it gets back. But if Alberta’s economy falters, it could soon be knocking on Ottawa’s door for handouts.

Imagine the political firestorm if Alberta becomes a “have-not” province, competing for federal support with the very provinces that have relied on its success. The strain on equalization could pit regions against each other, creating a toxic political environment when unity is more crucial than ever.

Does Ottawa even care?

Alberta’s decline isn’t just Alberta’s problem. It’s a Canadian problem. The Trudeau government’s climate obsession needs to take this into account. We cannot afford to sacrifice Alberta’s economic engine without dragging the rest of the country down with it.

What’s the plan to balance climate goals with economic reality? So far, there’s been little more than vague promises and short-term thinking. If Ottawa doesn’t wake up to the real-world consequences of Alberta’s decline, we’re all in for a harsh economic reckoning.

It’s time for our leaders to prioritize pragmatic solutions over virtue signalling. Because if Alberta goes down, the rest of Canada won’t be far behind.

First published here.

Troy Media is an editorial content provider to media outlets and its own hosted community news outlets across Canada.

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