Alberta
The Full Montney: Massive Montney Play Ramping up With Canadian LNG Exports on the Horizon
Photo courtesy Tourmaline
From the Canadian Energy Centre
‘LNG is in greater demand than ever before and continues to drive economic growth and enhance energy security across the world’
The massive Montney natural gas play in Alberta and B.C. is growing in importance as world liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand surges and Canada nears completion of its first LNG export project.
The Montney – which rivals the Marcellus, the largest natural gas play in the U.S., for available resources – has seen more than $16 billion worth of ownership deals in the last two years, according to Evaluate Energy.
But the play is still in its early innings, say analysts with RBC Capital Markets.
That’s good news for LNG, where the world needs more supply over the long term.
“LNG is in greater demand than ever before and continues to drive economic growth and enhance energy security across the world,” said Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the International Energy Forum (IEF).
Based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the IEF represents energy ministers from 72 producing and consuming nations including Canada, the United States, China, India, Germany and the United Kingdom.
After reaching a record 390 million tonnes in 2022, world LNG demand is expected to grow by another 25 percent to 500 million tonnes annually in five years, according to a new IEF report.
While Canada currently ships a small amount of LNG overseas by shipping container, it has yet to export any large quantities by LNG ocean carriers. This will change with the completion of the $18 billion first phase of the LNG Canada project, expected by 2025.
The recently completed Coastal GasLink pipeline will carry natural gas from the Montney play to the terminal.
Coastal GasLink will result in a step change in how natural gas is produced, shipped and priced in western Canada, RBC said.
Its initial capacity of 2.1 billion cubic feet per day can be increased to 5 billion cubic feet per day with additional compression facilities along the route. And through the less-than-a-kilometer long Cedar Link connector, Coastal GasLink would feed the proposed Cedar LNG project, led by the Haisla Nation.
Montney gas will also supply the Woodfibre LNG project and is planned to feed the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project, led by the Nisga’a Nation.
The Montney now provides roughly half of Canada’s existing natural gas production, or about 10 billion cubic feet per day, RBC said.
Analysts predict that by 2030, roughly two thirds of all natural gas wells in western Canada will target the Montney play, producing about 18 billion cubic feet per day by the end of this decade.
Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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