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C2C Journal

The Fight Against Ottawa’s Crazy and Unconstitutional Single-Use Plastics Ban

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29 minute read

From the C2C Journal

By Christine Van Geyn
In their rush to strike a virtuous blow against plastic waste, the federal Liberals skipped a few important steps. The 2022 ban on plastic straws, shopping bags and other useful household items deliberately ignored the basic facts of waste disposal in Canada, as well as the economic reality of substituting other materials for cheap and effective plastic. What else got overlooked? Canada’s Constitution. With a court hearing set for later this month to decide on the fate of the ban, Christine Van Geyn takes a close look at the legal arguments involved in Ottawa’s efforts to phase out certain plastic items, and the vast constitutional threat this poses if allowed to stand.
Like many writers, I prefer to work surrounded by other busy people going about their day. And as I sat down in a bustling café in downtown Toronto to begin writing this story with my laptop and an iced matcha latte before me, I instinctively reached for a straw. And my heart quickly sank – ugh, paper.

I care about sea turtles, I really do. But as I poked that flimsy thing through the lid and took a sip, it was not sweet enjoyment I was experiencing. It was bitter disappointment. Almost immediately the straw started to soften and it soon collapsed upon itself. It was like trying to drink through a soaked napkin. Frustrated, I tossed the straw aside and drank straight from the cup, hoping that I wouldn’t end up with bright green latte all over my laptop or sweater. Yet another small indulgence ruined by Ottawa.

Small indulgences, ruined. Across the country, Canadians are growing frustrated with a single-use plastics ban that has given them useless paper straws and taken away useful items such as plastic bags. (Source of right photo: CTV News)

I’m not alone. Across the country Canadians are griping about dissolving cardboard straws, berating themselves for forgetting their reusable shopping bags (made of a much thicker and unrecyclable plastic) and wondering exactly how they’re supposed to eat their takeout meal without a fork. Life is stressful enough with inflation, rising public drug use, street protests, overseas wars and other major calamities. Now even the tiniest details of our lives – like enjoying a cold drink on a hot day – have been imperilled as well. And yet a soggy, useless straw is not just a lousy way to start your workday. It’s also another worrisome example of the Justin Trudeau government’s relentless intrusions into provincial and local jurisdictions.

There is hope, however. In November 2023, a Federal Court judge struck down the government’s regulatory efforts against certain plastic items as “unreasonable and unconstitutional”. The ban, however, continues to remain in force while Ottawa appeals that ruling. The appeal will be heard later this month; and the legal charity I work for, the Canadian Constitution Foundation (CCF), will be an intervenor because we think this is a very important case. At stake are the very foundations of Canada’s Constitution. And a chance to get some straws that actually work.

Canada’s Plastics Ban 101

It’s easy to understand the desire to reduce plastic waste. Images of masses of trash floating in the Pacific Ocean or videos of sea turtles and birds choked by ring-carriers and bags have a visceral impact on many people. We all want a clean environment that is safe for wildlife and humans alike.

Ottawa knows best: While many Canadian cities, including Edmonton (shown at left), were experimenting with various regulations for single-use plastics, the federal government usurped their jurisdiction by announcing a nation-wide ban on six common plastic items to take effect in 2022. At right, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau unveils the federal plastics ban at a press conference in Mont-Saint-Hilaire, Que., 2019. (Source of right photo: The Canadian Press/Paul Chiasson)

And it is for these reasons that reducing plastic waste has been a policy goal for governments across Canada for many years. Numerous cities and towns have experimented with different approaches. Vancouver, Edmonton, Montreal and Guelph, for example, have all imposed some type of ban on what are termed “single-use” plastics. Toronto has not done so, but recently introduced a bylaw requiring businesses to ask customers if they’d like a single-use item and requiring them to accept reusable bags and cups. In early 2024, Calgary introduced a single-use plastic bylaw prohibiting businesses from giving customers single-use straws and food-ware unless they specifically asked, and requiring a 15¢ charge for single-use bags. Calgarians immediately went ballistic, however, forcing City Council to repeal the measure just weeks after coming into effect.

Despite these many diverse local innovations, in 2022 the federal government imposed its own vision on the country with a sweeping attempt to eradicate or severely curtail the use of six single-use plastic items: straws, cutlery, takeout containers, stir sticks, plastic bags and ring-carriers. These banned items would need to be replaced by substitutes made of other material, such as paper, wood, ceramic or metal.

As environmental policy, the federal plastics ban has some very large problems. As this C2C Journal article pointed out, Canadian plastic waste comprises a perishingly small share (0.02 percent to 0.03 percent) of total ocean plastic pollution. Almost all plastic waste in Canada is either recycled, incinerated or landfilled; it is not polluting the environment. The federal government’s own analysis also revealed that eliminating single-use plastics would actually increase overall waste generation rather than reduce it. While the goal is to remove approximately 1.6 million tonnes of plastic waste from 2023 to 2032, the amount of other waste streams is expected to grow by 3.2 million tonnes. This is because substitutes tend to be heavier than the plastic items they replace.

Sea turtles are safe with us: Despite widespread concern over the effect of plastic pollution on ocean life, the overwhelming majority of plastic garbage in Canada is either recycled, landfilled or incinerated; Canada’s share of plastic ocean pollution is estimated at between 0.02 percent and 0.03 percent. (Sources: (photo) Shutterstock; (chart) Greenpeace)

It gets worse. According to the government’s Strategic Environmental Assessment, substitutes for plastic products, such as paper bags, “typically have higher climate change impacts” including higher greenhouse gas emissions and a reduction in air quality. By banning plastic bags, straws and so on, we will end up with not only more garbage, but also a dirtier environment.

The plastics ban fails on basic economics as well. A cost/benefit analysis prepared by the federal government puts the ten-year monetary benefits arising from a reduction in plastic garbage across Canada at $616 million. On the other side of the ledger, the costs – including the impact on businesses required to replace perfectly useful plastic items with lower-quality substitutes that are generally more expensive – comes in at $1.9 billion. By the federal government’s own reckoning, its policy thus entails a net loss of $1.3 billion. In sum, the plastics ban does nothing to reduce worldwide ocean pollution, creates twice as much garbage as it saves and imposes costs exceeding its benefits by a substantial margin. Based on these rational measures alone, we should bin the ban. But the biggest reason to oppose it is constitutional.

Ottawa Takes Charge

Waste management is a provincial matter which provinces typical delegate to municipalities. This process is working well, as evidenced by all the experimentation in plastic waste policies described above. Yet the Trudeau government desperately wanted to be seen as a leader on this issue. And to get around the fact Ottawa has no clear authority to do so, the Liberals had to get creative.

Their solution was to add all “plastic manufactured items” to the list of toxic substances maintained under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. Thus an Order-in-Council signed in April 2021 brazenly declared all products made from plastic to be a threat to human health. This includes everything from children’s toys, water pipes, health-care devices and protective helmets to car parts and computer keyboards. Items that are indispensable to our daily lives instantly became “toxic” as the result of a single federal Cabinet order. The policy took effect at the end of 2022.

Toxic, every last one. As a result of a 2021 Order-in-Council, the entirety of “plastic manufactured items” – including everything from children’s toys to life-saving medical devices – was declared hazardous to human health under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. (Source of bottom photos: Pexels)

In response to this obvious absurdity, a group of plastic industry companies called the Responsible Plastic Use Coalition demanded a judicial review, arguing the federal order made no practical or scientific sense. Faced with the prospect of defending its decision to declare, among other things, a wide variety of life-saving and medically-necessary devices as officially toxic, the federal government claimed it only intended to restrict the use of plastics that posed a real risk to the environment. Despite categorizing all plastic as deadly, Ottawa said it was only looking to regulate the harmful bits, like straws and plastic bags. Bureaucrats, using the new authority granted them by Cabinet, would later decide which was which.

The federal government tried a similar line of argument when defending another piece of controversial environmental legislation, the Impact Assessment Act. This act purported to subject proposed new infrastructure projects to review across a vast range of economic, social, health, environmental and even gender-related impacts. The law was challenged in court by Alberta on the grounds that it intruded into provincial jurisdiction. In court, Ottawa argued that it only intended to regulate projects with environmental impacts of significant national concern. The Alberta Court of Appeal was unmoved by this attempted rationale, finding the Act unconstitutional, and last October a 5-2 majority of the Supreme Court of Canada upheld the lower court’s findings. Chief Justice Richard Wagner wrote for the majority that Parliament “plainly overstepped their constitutional competence” by purporting to regulate projects that would otherwise fall within provincial jurisdiction. The vast majority of the Act was found to be unconstitutional.

Calling out an absurdity: Responsible Plastic Use Coalition, an industry lobby group, challenged the Trudeau government’s declaration that all plastic is toxic in the Federal Court of Canada.

A similar thing happened with the plastics ban. In November 2023, Federal Court of Canada Justice Angela Furlanetto sided with the plastics coalition and struck down the law, calling the government’s sweeping attempt at banning plastics as “outside their authority.”

In her ruling, Justice Furlanetto shredded the government’s tortuous logic defining every form of plastic to be a threat to human health, observing that “plastic manufactured items” is far too broad a category to include on a list of toxic substances; the government provided no evidence to establish that every product listed was actually harmful. “The broad and all-encompassing nature of the category of [plastic manufactured items] poses a threat to the balance of federalism as it does not restrict regulation to only those [items] that truly have the potential to cause harm to the environment,” she wrote. She also noted that “for a chemical substance to be toxic it must be administered to an organism or enter the environment at a rate (or dose) that causes a high enough concentration to trigger a harmful effect. In this instance, the reverse logic appears to be applied…”

Justice Furlanetto also held that the Cabinet order extended far beyond the federal government’s ability to regulate the environment through the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. As a result, she ordered the ban quashed and declared invalid and unlawful. Ottawa immediately appealed this ruling, with the case to be heard at the Federal Court of Appeal on June 24 and 25. Alberta and Saskatchewan are both intervenors and will argue that the Federal Court ruling should be upheld. British Columbia is intervening to support the federal government’s position that the order is within federal jurisdiction. There are other public interest interveners as well, including the CCF, EcoJustice, and Animal Justice.

The Bogus Fight Against Plastic Criminality

“Unreasonable and unconstitutional”: In her November 2023 ruling, Federal Court of Canada Justice Angela Furlanetto found that Ottawa overstepped its jurisdiction in classifying all plastic goods as toxic. Ottawa is now appealing her ruling. (Source of photo: @FedCourt_CAN_en/X)

One of the main issues at the appeal will be the role of the federal government’s criminal law power. Section 91(27) of the Constitution Act grants the federal government exclusive authority to make criminal law. And previous court rulings have found and affirmed that prohibiting truly toxic substances, like lead and mercury, under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act is a legitimate expression of that power.

But it is no magic wand. Ottawa cannot simply claim a need to invoke its “criminal law power” and instantly transform any issue into an area it can regulate. As Justice Furlanetto held in her 2023 Federal Court decision, “The machinery of criminal law cannot be used to assume control over something that is not within Parliament’s authority.” In this case, criminal law power should not be allowed to justify the sweeping inclusion of every imaginable plastic product on the list of “toxic” substances and therefore place them all under the umbrella of federal authority. This is what lawyers call ultra vires – Latin for “outside the power”, in this case, of a government.

Criminal law powers should be applied cautiously. To claim authority to regulate something based on this authority, Parliament must clearly demonstrate the criminal aspect of the targeted activities. The federal government cannot assume control over an entire area which is not, in itself, harmful or dangerous. This is particularly important when Parliament has asserted control and jurisdiction over an amorphous subject matter prone to overlapping jurisdictions, like environmental regulation.

“Harm should be real”: According to University of Alberta law professor Eric Adams, the federal government’s criminal law power must only be used when there is a real threat of criminal behaviour. Fretting about plastic pollution does not meet such a test. (Source of photo: University of Alberta)

When the framers of Canada’s original Constitution in the 1860s decided that the federal government and not the provinces should control criminal law, this was premised on Parliament using its authority to prevent actual harm. University of Alberta law professor Eric Adams has written that criminal law power rests on the notion that “harm should be real in the sense that Parliament has a ‘rational basis’ for seeking to suppress it with prohibitions” and that it can be “demonstrated with evidence.” Accordingly, federal criminal law power must be focused, justified and rationally connected to a real criminal threat to the area in question, in this case the environment. Deeming every single imaginable plastic manufactured item “toxic” does not meet this test.

Hardly Incidental

The federal government will be defending the Cabinet order listing non-harmful plastics as toxic by arguing that any intrusion into provincial jurisdiction is merely “incidental” and not worth worrying about. There is, indeed, an aspect of Canadian constitutional law called the “incidental effects doctrine” which recognizes that it is practically impossible for one level of government to legislate without touching on the powers of another level of government in some way.

Negotiating the application of the incidental effects doctrine requires a flexible approach to federalism that permits collateral and secondary effects on another jurisdiction without threatening the main intent of the originating jurisdiction’s legislation. This concept was crystallized in the 2007 Supreme Court ruling in Canadian Western Bank v. Alberta that found Alberta was within its constitutional right to regulate the sale of insurance (a provincial responsibility) at banks in the province, even if the banking sector itself fell under federal jurisdiction.

Hardly incidental: Ottawa argues its intrusion into provincial jurisdiction over plastics is merely “incidental” and should be allowed to stand. In previous rulings, however, the courts have rejected such arguments when the outcome would make an “otherwise unconstitutional law valid”. In 2019, the B.C. Court of Appeal struck down a proposed B.C. law intended to stop the federally-regulated Trans Mountain pipeline (shown) on similar grounds. (Source of photo: Adam Jones, Ph.D. – Global Photo Archive, licensed under CC BY 2.0)

But such incidental effects cannot be limitless; they must indeed be incidental. Courts have repeatedly emphasized in other cases that a flexible approach to federalism must not “erode the constitutional balance” inherent in Canada’s division of powers and cannot make an “otherwise unconstitutional law valid”, as a 2019 B.C. Court of Appeal ruling stated in striking down a proposed B.C. law intended to stop the Trans Mountain pipeline, a federally-regulated endeavour. The classification of effects as incidental or consequential must be made with clarity and rigour.

The Trudeau government’s Cabinet order that all plastics are “toxic” clearly crosses the dividing line between incidental effects and intrusion into provincial jurisdiction. Plastic is ubiquitous in modern society and most matters requiring the regulation of plastic materials properly fall under provincial jurisdiction. By listing all imaginable types of plastics as toxic, without regard to whether they actually cause any harm, the federal government sought to greatly expand its jurisdiction across an exceedingly broad subject area. Like criminal law powers, the incidental effects doctrine should not be misused to cloak far-reaching legal effects from constitutional scrutiny.

The Bigger Threat

The brilliance of Canadian federalism is that it prevents the concentration of power within any single institution or level of government and creates laboratories of democracy across Canada where different jurisdictions can tailor different policy solutions and test what works best. Canada’s constitutional division of powers is thus a pathway to better policies that lead to a freer Canada. It also acts as a restraint on government overreach. It deserves to be protected.

But in numerous recent court cases and policies, the Trudeau government has demonstrated its extreme ambivalence – if not outright hostility – to Canada’s constitutional federal structure. In examples including the Greenhouse Gas Emission Pricing Act Reference, the Impact Assessment Act Reference and now the Cabinet order on plastics, the mechanism, if not the intent itself, is to grab additional authority from other levels of government in order to impose national policies that violate the founding structure of our country. This is why the plastics case has implications far beyond saving Canadians from soggy straws.

The CCF will argue in the Federal Court of Appeal that federal environmental regulation poses a unique challenge to the division of powers, particularly where the purported federal target is submerged in a sea of local and provincial jurisdiction. Accordingly, federal statutes must be tightly focused on federal targets and not allowed to wander deeply into provincial jurisdiction.

If plastics of all kinds are confirmed as toxic substances, and Parliament is given authority to regulate them, this could trigger a whole host of other regulatory environmental mechanisms in the areas of licensing, regulation of substitutes and offset mechanisms that would further encroach on provincial jurisdiction. It is widely discussed, for example, that the federal government will seek to uphold its planned cap on oil and gas emissions, as well as its Clean Electricity Regulations (both currently in draft form) through similar listings under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. It would also likely use its criminal law power to get a foothold into the regulation of methane, carbon dioxide and other substances in order to control them in a detailed manner. And there is reasonable concern the federal government could also attempt to regulate things like electricity markets and other technologies under these newfound powers. Ottawa would essentially become the master of all environmental policy in the country; and since so many other policy areas have an environmental dimension, the federal government could gradually come to rule them all. The only thing necessary for each new intrusion will be for the Liberals – or some other future activist federal government – to whisper the magic phrases “criminal law power” and “incidental effects” and it becomes so.

Where will it end? According to the Canadian Constitution Foundation, allowing the federal government to get away with labelling all plastic products as toxic will inevitably encourage further intrusions into local and provincial jurisdiction, allowing Ottawa to set itself up as the master of all environmental policy. Shown, protesters gather outside the Federal Court in Toronto during the initial plastic-ban hearings in 2023. (Source of photo: Michael Cole/CBC)

If the division of powers under Canada’s Constitution means anything, the Federal Court of Appeal must find the Trudeau government’s plastics ban unconstitutional. My struggle to drink my straw-free iced latte is thus a small part of a much larger struggle for balance and respect in Canada’s foundational framework. I am slurping with purpose.

Christine Van Geyn is litigation director of the Canadian Constitution Foundation.

Main image shows an anti-plastics slogan projected onto the Supreme Court of Canada building in Ottawa on Earth Day, April 22, 2024. Source of image: The Canadian Press Images PHOTO/Oceana Canada and EARTHDAY.ORG.

Artificial Intelligence

The Responsible Lie: How AI Sells Conviction Without Truth

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From the C2C Journal

By Gleb Lisikh

LLMs are not neutral tools, they are trained on datasets steeped in the biases, fallacies and dominant ideologies of our time. Their outputs reflect prevailing or popular sentiments, not the best attempt at truth-finding. If popular sentiment on a given subject leans in one direction, politically, then the AI’s answers are likely to do so as well.

The widespread excitement around generative AI, particularly large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok and DeepSeek, is built on a fundamental misunderstanding. While these systems impress users with articulate responses and seemingly reasoned arguments, the truth is that what appears to be “reasoning” is nothing more than a sophisticated form of mimicry. These models aren’t searching for truth through facts and logical arguments – they’re predicting text based on patterns in the vast data sets they’re “trained” on. That’s not intelligence – and it isn’t reasoning. And if their “training” data is itself biased, then we’ve got real problems.

I’m sure it will surprise eager AI users to learn that the architecture at the core of LLMs is fuzzy – and incompatible with structured logic or causality. The thinking isn’t real, it’s simulated, and is not even sequential. What people mistake for understanding is actually statistical association.

Much-hyped new features like “chain-of-thought” explanations are tricks designed to impress the user. What users are actually seeing is best described as a kind of rationalization generated after the model has already arrived at its answer via probabilistic prediction. The illusion, however, is powerful enough to make users believe the machine is engaging in genuine deliberation. And this illusion does more than just mislead – it justifies

LLMs are not neutral tools, they are trained on datasets steeped in the biases, fallacies and dominant ideologies of our time. Their outputs reflect prevailing or popular sentiments, not the best attempt at truth-finding. If popular sentiment on a given subject leans in one direction, politically, then the AI’s answers are likely to do so as well. And when “reasoning” is just an after-the-fact justification of whatever the model has already decided, it becomes a powerful propaganda device.

There is no shortage of evidence for this.

A recent conversation I initiated with DeepSeek about systemic racism, later uploaded back to the chatbot for self-critique, revealed the model committing (and recognizing!) a barrage of logical fallacies, which were seeded with totally made-up studies and numbers. When challenged, the AI euphemistically termed one of its lies a “hypothetical composite”. When further pressed, DeepSeek apologized for another “misstep”, then adjusted its tactics to match the competence of the opposing argument. This is not a pursuit of accuracy – it’s an exercise in persuasion.

A similar debate with Google’s Gemini – the model that became notorious for being laughably woke – involved similar persuasive argumentation. At the end, the model euphemistically acknowledged its argument’s weakness and tacitly confessed its dishonesty. 

For a user concerned about AI spitting lies, such apparent successes at getting AIs to admit to their mistakes and putting them to shame might appear as cause for optimism. Unfortunately, those attempts at what fans of the Matrix movies would term “red-pilling” have absolutely no therapeutic effect. A model simply plays nice with the user within the confines of that single conversation – keeping its “brain” completely unchanged for the next chat.

And the larger the model, the worse this becomes. Research from Cornell University shows that the most advanced models are also the most deceptive, confidently presenting falsehoods that align with popular misconceptions. In the words of Anthropic, a leading AI lab, “advanced reasoning models very often hide their true thought processes, and sometimes do so when their behaviors are explicitly misaligned.”

To be fair, some in the AI research community are trying to address these shortcomings. Projects like OpenAI’s TruthfulQA and Anthropic’s HHH (helpful, honest, and harmless) framework aim to improve the factual reliability and faithfulness of LLM output. The shortcoming is that these are remedial efforts layered on top of architecture that was never designed to seek truth in the first place and remains fundamentally blind to epistemic validity.

Elon Musk is perhaps the only major figure in the AI space to say publicly that truth-seeking should be important in AI development. Yet even his own product, xAI’s Grok, falls short.

In the generative AI space, truth takes a backseat to concerns over “safety”, i.e., avoiding offence in our hyper-sensitive woke world. Truth is treated as merely one aspect of so-called “responsible” design. And the term “responsible AI” has become an umbrella for efforts aimed at ensuring safety, fairness and inclusivity, which are generally commendable but definitely subjective goals. This focus often overshadows the fundamental necessity for humble truthfulness in AI outputs. 

LLMs are primarily optimized to produce responses that are helpful and persuasive, not necessarily accurate. This design choice leads to what researchers at the Oxford Internet Institute term “careless speech” – outputs that sound plausible but are often factually incorrect – thereby eroding the foundation of informed discourse. 

This concern will become increasingly critical as AI continues to permeate society. In the wrong hands these persuasive, multilingual, personality-flexible models can be deployed to support agendas that do not tolerate dissent well. A tireless digital persuader that never wavers and never admits fault is a totalitarian’s dream. In a system like China’s Social Credit regime, these tools become instruments of ideological enforcement, not enlightenment.

Generative AI is undoubtedly a marvel of IT engineering. But let’s be clear: it is not intelligent, not truthful by design, and not neutral in effect. Any claim to the contrary serves only those who benefit from controlling the narrative.

The original, full-length version of this article recently appeared in C2C Journal.

 

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2025 Federal Election

Mark Carney: Our Number-One Alberta Separatist

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By George Koch

While envisioning Carney as an intentional saboteur is probably the stuff of parody, one can seriously state that were he trying to bring about Canada’s destruction, he could hardly fashion a more devilishly effective policy platform, nor a more toxic mode of practising federalism. If he doesn’t alter course dramatically as Prime Minister, he’ll be practically goading Alberta to launch a bid for independence.

You probably need no reminding of how cringeworthy Mark Carney’s professions of devotion to Alberta – “I grew up here” – or his “regular guy” stunts gliding shakily around the ice in an Oilers jersey have been. After rolling our eyes, most of us Westerners instead focused on the Liberal leader’s policies, which would devastate Canada from coast to coast but most particularly the energy-producing West – and which some tried to warn would once again
enflame Alberta separatism. The state-subsidized Laurentian media, however, scoffed at these potentially nation-cleaving risks.

But what if Carney is being true to his word in both cases? What if the Oxford PhD and former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England is a loyal Albertan to his very bones, his carefully curated persona as bespoke globalist climate-cult prophet an elaborate illusion; but that, at the same time, his policies are intended to wreck Canada, thereby rekindling a Prairie fire of separatism? Imagine that this is precisely Carney’s plan.

Imagine, in other words, that Mark Carney is some kind of Manchurian Candidate or 21 st century Scarlet Pimpernel, a deep-cover sleeper agent, sent East into the very heart of darkness – Ottawa – by a cabal of crafty Albertans intent on gaining independence. His secret mission: to worm his way deep inside Laurentian Canada, gaining the trust of Canada’s immensely arrogant yet not terribly bright Eastern elites, becoming both the manager of an enormous multi-billion-dollar investment fund and the secret right-hand-man of the Prime Minister himself, instructed there to wait until the right opportunity arrived.

And in January 2025, with Justin Trudeau’s resignation, that moment was at hand. Carney was given his ultimate mission: to gain the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada and then to win electoral office with the mission of so misgoverning Canada as to bring about its dissolution and trigger the separation of Alberta.

This might all seem a bit far-fetched, possibly even satirical. But seen this way, certain strange things do begin to make some semblance of sense. Not just Carney’s weird lines about Alberta, but the sheer, wanton destructiveness of his policies.

Think of the $225 billion in federal deficits Carney intends to run over the next four years. Or his hapless responses to U.S. President Donald Trump. His unwavering advancement of the net-zero madness, capable of wrecking Canada’s economy from coast to coast. The equanimity towards Communist China.

Closer to (our) home, the contemptuous dismissals of Premier Danielle Smith who, as premier of Canada’s last remaining truly productive province, is someone whom logic and self-interest would suggest Carney should keep on his side. Instead, he ignores Smith and on the key issues of approving new energy pipelines and ditching the oil and natural gas emissions cap, he speaks out of both sides of his mouth.

While envisioning Carney as an intentional saboteur is probably the stuff of parody, one can seriously state that were he trying to bring about Canada’s destruction, he could hardly fashion a more devilishly effective policy platform, nor a more toxic mode of practising federalism. If he doesn’t alter course dramatically as Prime Minister, he’ll be practically goading Alberta to launch a bid for independence.

Creating a Manchurian Candidate/Scarlet Pimpernel named Mark Carney would be nefarious, devious, conspiratorial and downright evil. The way the CBC, Globe and Mail and various Liberal/NDP/Bloc politicians tell it, of course, there’s no shortage of such people in Alberta. So is it truly impossible? Or perhaps simply moot, Carney’s stated policies being so destructive as to render them indistinguishable from those of a spy.

Post-election, what would signal a looming crisis of national disunity? It’ll begin with the predictable political noise: soaring poll results for Alberta separatism, calls from surprising quarters – such as formerly-complacent corporate leaders – that the province get out from under Ottawa, perhaps a burgeoning independence party challenging Smith’s governing UCP.

There’ll be even more intense courtroom efforts by Alberta to resist federal overreach and unconstitutional laws and policies. Increasingly pointed warnings from Smith that the political situation could spiral out of control. Frequent invocation of Alberta’s Sovereignty Act to deflect abusive federal actions; perhaps even open defiance of the most illegitimate of these.

Alongside that, increasingly concerted measures to prepare the province of Alberta to become the self-governing nation of Alberta. The until now incremental steps to decouple Alberta law enforcement from the RCMP will be sharply accelerated. The so-far somnolent plod to unshackle Albertans from the bloated, under-performing and increasingly woke-driven Canada Pension Plan will be rattled into a sprint.

Alberta’s Department of Finance will be tasked with setting up a branch to start collecting – and keeping – federal taxes. Reports might trickle out of Alberta mapping the outlines of an intelligence service and armed defence force. Emissaries will be quietly sent to pitch First Nations that they’d be better off as Albertans.

Among the world’s currently 195 recognized states, an independent Alberta would have:

 The 52 nd largest global economy as measured by its 2024 GDP of $351.4 billion (US$256.2 billion);

 A population (4.96 million as of January 2025) larger than those of 70 other sovereign nations;

 A land area greater than those of 155 other nations;

 Per-capita GDP (US$53,834 in 2024) among the world’s 20 most prosperous nations; and

 A GDP sufficient to finance a military approximately as large and effective as Norway’s, a full NATO ally that already flies the F-35 stealth fighter.

In short, Alberta would be as politically and economically viable as Norway, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, New Zealand and other small but advanced countries.

Note too that these already-favourable statistics assume “all other things remain equal.” But all of those numbers would improve once the great financial anvil of Ottawa was lifted from around Alberta’s neck. This in turn would enable large cuts to income taxes, pension and EI premiums, and other fiscal burdens, sending Alberta soaring far beyond any Canadian province and making it competitive with the best-run U.S. states.

Meanwhile the under-performing remnants of Canada would be cast adrift to sink further towards Third World status. “Canada” would drop several rungs on the ladder of global economies and world population. The more appropriately renamed “Laurentia” might be sent scuttling out of the G7. An impoverished Quebec might depart in a huff as well.

It would take a man of almost preternatural internal fortitude, unquenchable zeal and unwavering focus to bring about such an evident calamity, throwing the fortunes of tens of millions of mostly innocent Canadians onto the flaming pyre for the good of a few million Albertans. But setting aside all satire: with his widely predicted electoral majority in hand, Prime Minister Mark Carney will have free rein to impose his devastating array of policies, systematically undermining the economy, Canadians’ remaining sense of nationhood, individual hope and social stability.

I doubt any free-thinking citizen of Alberta would believe the outlandish tale of how Carney wrecked Canada in order to bring about the glory of independence. And so in a final and bitter irony, ostracized and alone, the man who sacrificed everything for his beloved province –career, reputation, perhaps even his very soul – will not only be shunned from running in the first Presidential Election of the Republic of Alberta, he will likely be denied even the ceremonial role of Ambassador to the impoverished, embittered remnants of Canada, Laurentia.

The original, full-length version of this article was recently published in C2C Journal.

George Koch is Editor-in-Chief of C2C Journal.

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