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Alberta

Start-up of Trans Mountain expansion ‘going very well’ as global buyers ink deals for Canadian crude

Published

6 months ago

6 minute read

A worker at Trans Mountain’s Burnaby Terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Deborah Jaremko

Chinese refiner pays about US$10 more for oil off TMX compared to sales value in Alberta

Canada’s oil sands producers are “back in the limelight” for investors following completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, according to a report by Enervus Intelligence Research.

For the first time in the better part of a decade, there is now breathing room on the system to ship all of the oil producers are able to sell off the coast of B.C.

Up until this May, Trans Mountain was regularly overbooked. Not anymore.

The crude carrier Dubai Angel picked up the first shipment from the long-awaited expansion on May 22, setting sail for China and a customer of oil sands producer Suncor Energy.

Analysts estimate Trans Mountain loaded 20 vessels in June, compared to a pre-expansion average of five per month.

“You’re seeing multiple buyers. It’s going very well,” said Phil Skolnick, managing director of research with New York-based Eight Capital.

“You’re seeing the exact buyers that we always thought were going to show up, the U.S. west coast refineries and as well as the Asian refineries, and there was a shipment that went to India as well.”

The “Golden Weld” in April 2024 marked the mechanical completion and end of construction for the Trans Mountain expansion project. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

Canadian crude in demand on the global market

Asian markets – particularly China, where refineries can process “substantial quantities” of extra heavy crude and bitumen – are now “opened in earnest” to Canadian oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its June Oil 2024 report.

“There’s demand for this crude and people are going to make deals,” said Kevin Birn, chief analyst of Canadian oil markets with S&P Global.

The IEA said Canadian crude will increasingly compete with heavy oil from other countries, particularly those in Latin America and the Middle East.

June’s loading of 20 vessels is slightly lower than the 22 vessels Trans Mountain had targeted, but Skolnick said a few bumps in the project’s ramp-up are to be expected.

“About three months ago, the shippers were telling investors on their calls, don’t expect it to be a smooth ramp up, it’s going to be a bit bumpy, but I think they’re expecting by Q4 you should start seeing everyone at peak rates,” Skolnick said.

Delivering higher prices

Trans Mountain’s expanded Westridge Terminal at Burnaby, B.C. now has capacity to load 34 so-called “Aframax” vessels each month.

One of the first deals, with Chinese refiner Rongsheng Petrochemical, indicates the Trans Mountain expansion is delivering on one of its expected benefits – higher prices for Canadian oil.

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office has said that an increase of US$5 per barrel for Canadian heavy oil over one year would add $6 billion to Canada’s economy.

The June deal between Rongsheng and an unnamed oil sands shipper saw a shipment of Access Western Blend (AWB) purchased for approximately US$6 per barrel below the Brent global oil benchmark. That implies an AWB selling price of approximately US$75 per barrel, or about US$10 more than the price received for AWB in Alberta.

Expanded export capacity at the Trans Mountain Westridge Terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

More pipeline capacity needed

Oil sands production – currently about 3.4 million barrels per day – is projected to rise to 3.8 million barrels per day by the end of the decade before declining slightly to about 3.6 million barrels per day in 2035, according to the latest outlook by S&P Global.

“Despite the recent completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion project, additional capacity will still be needed, likely via expansion or optimization of the existing pipeline system,” wrote Birn and S&P senior research analyst Celina Hwang in May.

“By 2026, we forecast the need for further export capacity to ensure that the system remains balanced on pipeline economics.”

Uncertainty over the federal government’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap “adds hesitation” to companies considering large-scale production growth, wrote Birn and Hwang.

Global oil demand rising

World oil demand, which according to the IEA reached a record 103 million barrels per day in 2023, is projected to continue rising despite increased investment in renewable and alternative energy.

A June outlook by the International Energy Forum (IEF) pegs 2030 oil demand at nearly 110 million barrels per day.

“More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social well-being,” said IEF secretary Joseph McMonigle.

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Is There Any Canadian Province More Proud of their Premier Today…

Alberta

Is There Any Canadian Province More Proud of their Premier Today…

Published on January 21, 2025

By

Yakk Stack  By Sheldon Yakiwchuk

 

Prior to Trumps inauguration event and announcement was made that Trump would not be imposing the 25% tariffs…

Which means, Canada seriously dodged a bullet here.

And while the Liberals will most likely frame this as, their success in showing, Bad Orange Man, that they’re tough and ready to burn down what is left of our economy, throwing Alberta under the bus, first…through a nuclear option…

Premier Smith rode this challenge out like the true champion we knew that she would be.

It’s hard to say if this was a legality matter in the grander scheme…or if the 25% tariffs would have truly been as big of an impact on the US…

One thing is clear, however…

Smith was ready to go to the tables with the Trump administration and opt for diplomacy over threats…which should be what we expect from our leaders.

And should these 25% tariffs have gone through…I’m more than sure a Plan B would have been brought out in civil conversations, over screeching rhetoric.

“She’s treasonous”, they screeched.

“She’s supporting her friends in Oil and Gas”, they relent.

“She should put Canada first”, they echo…

And let’s just address these…

Is Walmart beholden to Campbells soup? Fruit of the Loom? Kraft?

Or does Walmart sell products that helps keep their doors open?

Walmart is not beholden to any product…just like Premier Smith isn’t. We have 26% of our GDP – the largest portion – owed to Alberta O&G, something that we have a limited trade partner with, due to the Liberal – Anti-Alberta/Anti-O&G/Anti-Pipeline attitude that wants to spend us further in debt with unreliable and expensive “Renewables”.

What does Alberta get from renewables?

A higher cost for energy, in an affordability crisis, created by the same people who continue to push them…sounds like a terrible deal, for Albertans, and something a true leader would Not Favor.

When Walmart sits down to hash out a deal with Heinz, are they committing treason because they haven’t shown their allegiance to their own, ‘Great Value’ brand Ketchup?

No…other provinces have their own industries and resources, which they are free to continue developing independent of the federal government, as is suitable and supportive of their own economies…Alberta isn’t competing with them, nor Canada as a whole.

Alberta through industry and resource, actually supports Canada through a grand imbalance on “Equalization Payments”…

Image

As do we through paying 50% more into the Canada Pension Plan, than we actually get out of the Canada Pension Plan…to the tune of a $334 Billion Dollars.

And as for this “Team Canada”, horseshit…

The title Premier of Alberta, should hold some clues as to who Premier Smith should be advocating for…as she is the Premier of Alberta and Not the Prime Minister, nor leader in the Liberal Party that has created this fiasco, to begin with.

Rail, as they may…other provinces can’t cast a vote in her support, either way…

None of the other provinces, through Members of Parliament, nor through Premiers, came to support Alberta and our economy through a number of Federal Bills that railed on our provincial resources…

Worse yet…these hypocrites cash cheques from our province, while telling us how to diversify our economy…to which I’d state one thing unequivocally…

If we wanted to be a Have Not Province…like you are…we’ll come and ask you for your advice.

Until then…

I’ll hold my Alberta Flag Higher than my Canadian…

And be proud today, of having the only Premier in the country of Canada, worthy of any praise today!

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Alberta

Trump delays implementation 25% tariffs: Premier Smith response

Published on January 20, 2025

By

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement, welcoming the U.S. tariff reprieve and calling for strategic action:

“Alberta is pleased to see that today President Donald Trump has decided to refrain from imposing tariffs on Canadian goods at this time as they study the issue further.

“We appreciate the implied acknowledgement that this is a complex and delicate issue with serious implications for American and Canadian workers, businesses and consumers given the integration of our markets, along with our critical energy and security partnership.

“Avoiding tariffs will save hundreds of thousands of Canadian and American jobs across every sector. As an example, declining to impose U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy preserves the viability of dozens of U.S. refineries and facilities that upgrade Alberta crude, and the jobs of tens of thousands of Americans employed at them.

“Despite the promising news today, the threat of U.S. tariffs is still very real. As a country, we need to immediately take the following steps to preserve and strengthen our economic and security partnership with the United States, and to avoid the future imposition of tariffs:

  1. Focus on diplomacy and refrain from further talk of retaliatory measures, including export tariffs or cutting off energy to the U.S. Having spoken with the President, as well as dozens of governors, senators, members of congress and allies of the incoming administration, I am convinced that the path to a positive resolution with our U.S. allies is strong and consistent diplomacy and working in good faith towards shared priorities. The worst possible response to today’s news would be the federal government or premiers declaring “victory” or escalating tensions with unnecessary threats against the United States.
  2. Negotiate ways to increase what Canadians and Americans buy from one another. As an example, the United States should look at purchasing more oil, timber and agricultural products from Canada, while Canada should look at purchasing more American gas turbines, military equipment and the computer hardware needed to build our growing AI data centre sector. Finding ways to increase trade in both directions is critical to achieving a win-win for both countries.
  3. Double down on border security. Within the next month, all border provinces should either by themselves, or in partnership with the federal government, deploy the necessary resources to secure our shared border from illegal drugs and migration.
  4. Announce a major acceleration of Canada’s 2 per cent of GDP NATO target. This is clearly a shared priority that benefits both of our nations. There is no excuse for further delay.
  5. Crack down on immigration streams and loopholes that are known to permit individuals hostile to Canada and the United States to enter our country, and restore immigration levels and rules to those under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
  6. Immediately repeal all federal anti-energy policies (production cap, Clean Electricity Regulations, Impact Assessment Act [Bill C-69]) and fast track Northern Gateway and Energy East projects pre-approvals.”
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