Alberta
Recent rain may not be enough to halt the shrinking of Canada’s cattle herd

CALGARY — Anxious Alberta ranchers praying for rain got their wish this week, but it may not be enough to stop the ongoing decline in Canadian cattle production.
The moisture that fell on parts of drought-parched Alberta came as a welcome reprieve to the hundreds of cattle farmers who have seen their pastures wither and their water supplies dry up this June.
But a few inches of rain won’t be enough to cut it in much of Canadian cattle country, which is still trying to dig its way out of a significant moisture deficit.
“I think this is the driest I’ve ever seen it,” said Bob Lowe, a rancher and feedlot operator from the Nanton area of southern Alberta.
“The grass started this spring, and came up a little bit, and then it just turned around and died. It’s supposed to be green this time of year, but it’s just grey-brown.”
According to Agriculture Canada’s Drought Monitor, 82 per cent of the agricultural regions of the three prairie provinces were either “abnormally dry” or in “moderate to extreme drought” as of the end of May.
Some ranchers have been spending hours every day this spring hauling water by truck or trailer to their cattle after their watering holes completely dried up, said Ryder Lee, general manager of the Canadian Cattle Association.
“Or they’re filling dugouts from other places with pipelines and pumps,” Lee said.
“There’s lots of creativity and ingenuity in the industry, but all of that takes a toll on people.”
It also takes a toll on an industry that has already been steadily shrinking for years. Last year, the size of the Canadian cattle herd fell to 12.3 million animals — the lowest level recorded since July 1, 1988.
The 2.8 per cent year-over-year reduction was in large part due to the after-effects of an extremely harsh drought on the prairies in 2021. As crops withered and feed prices skyrocketed, many ranchers sold their cattle for slaughter rather than holding onto them for breeding.
That could happen again this year, and at an even larger scale, said Rob Somerville, who has a cattle farm in east-central Alberta, near the town of Innisfail.
“There is a train of thought that people who may have hung on last time, this time, will sell,” Somerville said.
He added that some producers might have hesitated to sell in 2021 because cattle prices at the time were low. But as cattle numbers in North America have continued to shrink, prices have increased, hitting all-time records this spring.
“Just about everybody I’ve spoken to has already prepared a list of the cows they’re going to sell. These people won’t be leaving the industry, but they’re certainly planning a herd reduction.”
South of the border, U.S. cattle inventory is also down four per cent year-over-year due to increased heifer slaughter. According to a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, roughly 69 per cent of the U.S. cattle herd as of December 2022 was located in drought-stricken areas, leading to the largest contraction of the North American cattle herd in a decade.
Other catastrophes in the last two decades — including the BSE (mad cow) crisis and the 2009 financial crisis — also led ranchers to downsize their herds or exit the industry entirely.
As a result, according to Statistics Canada, there are 25 per cent fewer beef cows in Canada now than there were in 2005.
“After a while it’s not just an individual farm-by-farm thing, it’s an industry issue. And that has far wider implications,” Somerville said, adding that fewer cows could cause ripple effects all the way down the value chain — potentially leading to lost jobs at feedlots, at meat-packing plants and more.
“This is a big contributor to the economy that we’re talking about.”
Winnipeg-based cattle markets analyst Jerry Klassen said he believes one or two good rains could save the industry from wide-spread liquidation of herds this year.
“You can still get one good hay crop in Alberta if you get timely rains from now moving forward,” Klassen said.
“And you’ve got these high prices. If the farmer can maintain or increase his herd, he’s going to reap the rewards over the next two or three years.”
But Somerville said multiple years of dry conditions have left some ranchers feeling that they’re “running out of tricks they can pull out of the hat.”
“There’s a lot of producers who have been hanging on as long as they can and they may decide now is the time to get out of the industry,” he said.
“It’s just been too many struggles, for too long.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 16, 2023.
Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press
Alberta
The beauty of economic corridors: Inside Alberta’s work to link products with new markets

From the Canadian Energy Centre
Q&A with Devin Dreeshen, Minister of Transport and Economic Corridors
CEC: How have recent developments impacted Alberta’s ability to expand trade routes and access new markets for energy and natural resources?
Dreeshen: With the U.S. trade dispute going on right now, it’s great to see that other provinces and the federal government are taking an interest in our east, west and northern trade routes, something that we in Alberta have been advocating for a long time.
We signed agreements with Saskatchewan and Manitoba to have an economic corridor to stretch across the prairies, as well as a recent agreement with the Northwest Territories to go north. With the leadership of Premier Danielle Smith, she’s been working on a BC, prairie and three northern territories economic corridor agreement with pretty much the entire western and northern block of Canada.
There has been a tremendous amount of work trying to get Alberta products to market and to make sure we can build big projects in Canada again.
CEC: Which infrastructure projects, whether pipeline, rail or port expansions, do you see as the most viable for improving Alberta’s global market access?
Dreeshen: We look at everything. Obviously, pipelines are the safest way to transport oil and gas, but also rail is part of the mix of getting over four million barrels per day to markets around the world.
The beauty of economic corridors is that it’s a swath of land that can have any type of utility in it, whether it be a roadway, railway, pipeline or a utility line. When you have all the environmental permits that are approved in a timely manner, and you have that designated swath of land, it politically de-risks any type of project.
CEC: A key focus of your ministry has been expanding trade corridors, including an agreement with Saskatchewan and Manitoba to explore access to Hudson’s Bay. Is there any interest from industry in developing this corridor further?
Dreeshen: There’s been lots of talk [about] Hudson Bay, a trade corridor with rail and port access. We’ve seen some improvements to go to Churchill, but also an interest in the Nelson River.
We’re starting to see more confidence in the private sector and industry wanting to build these projects. It’s great that governments can get together and work on a common goal to build things here in Canada.
CEC: What is your vision for Alberta’s future as a leader in global trade, and how do economic corridors fit into that strategy?
Dreeshen: Premier Smith has talked about C-69 being repealed by the federal government [and] the reversal of the West Coast tanker ban, which targets Alberta energy going west out of the Pacific.
There’s a lot of work that needs to be done on the federal side. Alberta has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to economic corridors.
We’ve asked the federal government if they could develop an economic corridor agency. We want to make sure that the federal government can come to the table, work with provinces [and] work with First Nations across this country to make sure that we can see these projects being built again here in Canada.
2025 Federal Election
Next federal government should recognize Alberta’s important role in the federation

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
With the tariff war continuing and the federal election underway, Canadians should understand what the last federal government seemingly did not—a strong Alberta makes for a stronger Canada.
And yet, current federal policies disproportionately and negatively impact the province. The list includes Bill C-69 (which imposes complex, uncertain and onerous review requirements on major energy projects), Bill C-48 (which bans large oil tankers off British Columbia’s northern coast and limits access to Asian markets), an arbitrary cap on oil and gas emissions, numerous other “net-zero” targets, and so on.
Meanwhile, Albertans contribute significantly more to federal revenues and national programs than they receive back in spending on transfers and programs including the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) because Alberta has relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes and a younger population.
For instance, since 1976 Alberta’s employment rate (the number of employed people as a share of the population 15 years of age and over) has averaged 67.4 per cent compared to 59.7 per cent in the rest of Canada, and annual market income (including employment and investment income) has exceeded that in the other provinces by $10,918 (on average).
As a result, Alberta’s total net contribution to federal finances (total federal taxes and payments paid by Albertans minus federal money spent or transferred to Albertans) was $244.6 billion from 2007 to 2022—more than five times as much as the net contribution from British Columbians or Ontarians. That’s a massive outsized contribution given Alberta’s population, which is smaller than B.C. and much smaller than Ontario.
Albertans’ net contribution to the CPP is particularly significant. From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 per cent (on average) of total CPP payments paid to retirees in Canada while retirees in the province received only 10.0 per cent of the payments. Albertans made a cumulative net contribution to the CPP (the difference between total CPP contributions made by Albertans and CPP benefits paid to retirees in Alberta) of $53.6 billion over the period—approximately six times greater than the net contribution of B.C., the only other net contributing province to the CPP. Indeed, only two of the nine provinces that participate in the CPP contribute more in payroll taxes to the program than their residents receive back in benefits.
So what would happen if Alberta withdrew from the CPP?
For starters, the basic CPP contribution rate of 9.9 per cent (typically deducted from our paycheques) for Canadians outside Alberta (excluding Quebec) would have to increase for the program to remain sustainable. For a new standalone plan in Alberta, the rate would likely be lower, with estimates ranging from 5.85 per cent to 8.2 per cent. In other words, based on these estimates, if Alberta withdrew from the CPP, Alberta workers could receive the same retirement benefits but at a lower cost (i.e. lower payroll tax) than other Canadians while the payroll tax would have to increase for the rest of the country while the benefits remained the same.
Finally, despite any claims to the contrary, according to Statistics Canada, Alberta’s demographic advantage, which fuels its outsized contribution to the CPP, will only widen in the years ahead. Alberta will likely maintain relatively high employment rates and continue to welcome workers from across Canada and around the world. And considering Alberta recorded the highest average inflation-adjusted economic growth in Canada since 1981, with Albertans’ inflation-adjusted market income exceeding the average of the other provinces every year since 1971, Albertans will likely continue to pay an outsized portion for the CPP. Of course, the idea for Alberta to withdraw from the CPP and create its own provincial plan isn’t new. In 2001, several notable public figures, including Stephen Harper, wrote the famous Alberta “firewall” letter suggesting the province should take control of its future after being marginalized by the federal government.
The next federal government—whoever that may be—should understand Alberta’s crucial role in the federation. For a stronger Canada, especially during uncertain times, Ottawa should support a strong Alberta including its energy industry.
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