Alberta
Recent rain may not be enough to halt the shrinking of Canada’s cattle herd

CALGARY — Anxious Alberta ranchers praying for rain got their wish this week, but it may not be enough to stop the ongoing decline in Canadian cattle production.
The moisture that fell on parts of drought-parched Alberta came as a welcome reprieve to the hundreds of cattle farmers who have seen their pastures wither and their water supplies dry up this June.
But a few inches of rain won’t be enough to cut it in much of Canadian cattle country, which is still trying to dig its way out of a significant moisture deficit.
“I think this is the driest I’ve ever seen it,” said Bob Lowe, a rancher and feedlot operator from the Nanton area of southern Alberta.
“The grass started this spring, and came up a little bit, and then it just turned around and died. It’s supposed to be green this time of year, but it’s just grey-brown.”
According to Agriculture Canada’s Drought Monitor, 82 per cent of the agricultural regions of the three prairie provinces were either “abnormally dry” or in “moderate to extreme drought” as of the end of May.
Some ranchers have been spending hours every day this spring hauling water by truck or trailer to their cattle after their watering holes completely dried up, said Ryder Lee, general manager of the Canadian Cattle Association.
“Or they’re filling dugouts from other places with pipelines and pumps,” Lee said.
“There’s lots of creativity and ingenuity in the industry, but all of that takes a toll on people.”
It also takes a toll on an industry that has already been steadily shrinking for years. Last year, the size of the Canadian cattle herd fell to 12.3 million animals — the lowest level recorded since July 1, 1988.
The 2.8 per cent year-over-year reduction was in large part due to the after-effects of an extremely harsh drought on the prairies in 2021. As crops withered and feed prices skyrocketed, many ranchers sold their cattle for slaughter rather than holding onto them for breeding.
That could happen again this year, and at an even larger scale, said Rob Somerville, who has a cattle farm in east-central Alberta, near the town of Innisfail.
“There is a train of thought that people who may have hung on last time, this time, will sell,” Somerville said.
He added that some producers might have hesitated to sell in 2021 because cattle prices at the time were low. But as cattle numbers in North America have continued to shrink, prices have increased, hitting all-time records this spring.
“Just about everybody I’ve spoken to has already prepared a list of the cows they’re going to sell. These people won’t be leaving the industry, but they’re certainly planning a herd reduction.”
South of the border, U.S. cattle inventory is also down four per cent year-over-year due to increased heifer slaughter. According to a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, roughly 69 per cent of the U.S. cattle herd as of December 2022 was located in drought-stricken areas, leading to the largest contraction of the North American cattle herd in a decade.
Other catastrophes in the last two decades — including the BSE (mad cow) crisis and the 2009 financial crisis — also led ranchers to downsize their herds or exit the industry entirely.
As a result, according to Statistics Canada, there are 25 per cent fewer beef cows in Canada now than there were in 2005.
“After a while it’s not just an individual farm-by-farm thing, it’s an industry issue. And that has far wider implications,” Somerville said, adding that fewer cows could cause ripple effects all the way down the value chain — potentially leading to lost jobs at feedlots, at meat-packing plants and more.
“This is a big contributor to the economy that we’re talking about.”
Winnipeg-based cattle markets analyst Jerry Klassen said he believes one or two good rains could save the industry from wide-spread liquidation of herds this year.
“You can still get one good hay crop in Alberta if you get timely rains from now moving forward,” Klassen said.
“And you’ve got these high prices. If the farmer can maintain or increase his herd, he’s going to reap the rewards over the next two or three years.”
But Somerville said multiple years of dry conditions have left some ranchers feeling that they’re “running out of tricks they can pull out of the hat.”
“There’s a lot of producers who have been hanging on as long as they can and they may decide now is the time to get out of the industry,” he said.
“It’s just been too many struggles, for too long.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 16, 2023.
Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press
Alberta
Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
Alberta
Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
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