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Bruce Dowbiggin

Recency Bias: Why Kraken, Knights Avoided Expansion Fate

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Like isn’t fair. That’s the triusm. For fans of established NHL teams the sight of the Vegas Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken still in the playoffs— while their own teams are playing golf— is a little galling. Aren’t expansion teams supposed to lose a lot for a long time before gaining success?

The Washington Capitals in their debut season of 1974-75 posted the worst single-season record ever at 8-67-5. (Imagine how much worse the losing if this occurred before the demise of ties?) The Caps never won two consecutive games; their 21 total points were half that of their expansion brethren, the Kansas City Scouts; their .131 winning percentage is still the worst in NHL history, and they lost 37 straight road games.

Only marginally better were the 1992-93 expansion Ottawa Senators, who brought the NHL back to Canada’s capital after the first Senators team folded in 1934. The team recorded three NHL records that season: longest home losing streak of eleven; longest road losing streak with a total of 39 (nearly the whole season) and fewest road wins in a season, with just one victory.

In the same year of 1992-92, the San Jose Sharks, a hybrid expansion team in its first year after leaving Cleveland, posted a brutal 11-71-2 mark. The Sharks allowed 10 or more goals in a game three times and finished the season 22nd in both scoring (219 goals for) and goaltending (359 goals against).

And so on. The 2000-01 Atlanta Thrashers went 14-57-7. The 1972-73 New York Islanders were a putrid 12-60-6 in their inaugural NHL campaign. (At least the Islanders paid off their fans for the abysmal start, winning the Stanley Cup within eight years and preceding to rip off four straight Cups from 1980-83.) The Caps took till 2018 to get a Cup. Kansas City moved to become the Colorado Rockies and then the New Jersey Devils before becoming a huge success with three Cups in 1995, 2000 and 2003. The Sharks and Senators have no championships at all.

Many had predicted similar failure for the Knights. But it didn’t happen that way. Nor did it go sideways in Seattle, either.  For one, the enormous $500M Vegas/ $650M Seattle expansion fees demanded some competitiveness. Then, cap pressure from Gary Bettman’s salary cap forced established teams into bad decisions, forcing teams to be creative when they could not pay their stars more money. So clubs began handing out no-movement clauses (NMC) and no-trade-clauses (NTC) like Halloween candy in lieu of salary. These alterations would get their revenge in the Vegas Golden Knights expansion fiasco (for teams).

To guarantee a fair expansion draft process for the Golden Knights the league hired former Vancouver assistant GM Laurence Gilman to design a protocol for the selections. What he found did not exactly correspond to the assignment letter: “It was called an expansion draft, but an expansion draft is what occurred in 2001 when Minnesota and Columbus selected players between them. This was an asset-harvest event. Las Vegas wasn’t competing with another franchise and had the ability to map out exactly what they wanted to harvest.”

That they did. In 2016, the Knights had hired former player and ex-Washington Capitals GM George McPhee, who had from 1997 to 2014 orchestrated the building of the Caps from sad sacks to contenders. McPhee then hired personnel specialist Kelly McCrimmon to be his right-hand man in the process. By 2017, McPhee and McCrimmon understood how the expansion game was changed by issues such as NMCs and NTCs. In 2017, there were 66 NHL players who owned a NMC in their contracts, requiring them to be protected by their clubs in the expansion draft— even if those clubs would rather get out from under their contracts.

Columbus had given goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno and Scott Hartnell contracts with no-move-clauses, long before GM Jarmo Kekalainen had contemplated expansion ramifications, and they suffered the consequences as a result.  Enter McPhee who worked a deal where Vegas would select William Karlsson — who had just one goal in his final 43 games in Columbus — while also receiving a first-round pick, a second-round pick and David Clarkson’s expensive contract. Karlsson would score 43 goals and 78 points in the Knights first season. The two draft picks would be turned into a deal for Nick Suzuki and, eventually, Max Pacioretty.

McPhee then targeted Anaheim. The Ducks were forced to protect Kevin Bieksa who didn’t have much hockey time left. The NMC in his contract required protection over younger teammates like Theodore, Josh Manson and Sami Vatanen. So Anaheim traded defenceman Shea Theodore to Vegas so Vegas would draft Clayton Stoner instead of one of their prime prospects. And so on.

The Knights exploitation of NMCs and NTCs turned trading from a trickle into a fire hose, making 10 trades before and after the 2017 draft. That yielded 12 draft picks, while also adding valuable pieces in Marc-Andre Fleury, Shea Theodore, Karlsson, Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault and Alex Tuch as part of those deals.

Vegas became the best expansion team in any major pro sport ever. The newest team in the NHL has missed the postseason just once since its arrival in 2017-18, in 2022. This while Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa have missed every postseason in that span, while Anaheim and New Jersey have just one playoff appearance since the Knights’ first season. Naturally this success did not go over well with those clubs and others who felt Vegas needed to pay some dues before becoming a regular in the playoffs.

So when it came time for Seattle Kraken to build their first roster the sentiment around there NHL was “let’s not do that again”. For example, the Kraken wouldn’t get a crack at the Knights’ roster— they were exempted from the expansion draft process.  One other specific change was in the number of NMC and NTC players. After 68 in 2017, there would be just 52 players in that position when the Kraken made their selections in 2021. In short, there were fewer opportunities to pluck cap-strapped teams for players like Karlsson and Marchessault.

The lack of depth on the Kraken showed initially. Seattle wound up 15th in the Western Conference with just 60 points and a minus-69 goal differential. Comparisons to the Knights proved premature. It took another offseason for the Kraken to be competitive. But Matty Beniers is a leading Calder Trophy candidate; it looks like he will be a foundational piece for this fledgling franchise. Vegas and Seattle duelled for the leadership of the Pacific Division all season before Vegas prevailed.

Now they’re in the postseason with the Knights, playing on equal footing with the best. Few players remain from that first Knights team, and few more with the Kraken. But the results remain the same.

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Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his new book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx

 

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BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Is HNIC Ready For The Winnipeg Jets To Be Canada’s Heroes?

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It’s fair to say everyone in hockey wanted the Winnipeg Jets back in the NHL. They became everyone’s darlings in 2011 when the Atlanta Thrashers, the league’s second stab at a franchise in Georgia, were sold to Canadian interests including businessman David Thomson. (Ed.: Gary Bettman’s try number three in Atlanta is upcoming.).

Yes, the market is tiny. Yes, the arena is too small. Yes, Thomson’s wealth is holding back a sea of inevitability. But sentimentalists remembering the Bobby Hull WHA Jets and the Dale Hawerchuk NHL Jets threw aside their skepticism to welcome back the Jets. The throwback uniforms with their hints at Canada’s air force past were an understated nod to their modest pretensions. It was a perfect story.

The  question now, however, is will the same folks get dewey-eyed about the Jets if they become the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since (checks his cards) Montreal and Patrick Roy did it in 1993. It would be helpful in this election year if something were to bind a nation torn apart by politics. The Gordie Howe Elbows Up analogy is more than shopworn, and Terry Fox can only be resurrected so often. So a Cup win might be a welcome salve.

But the approved script has long dictated that the Canadian team to break the schneid should be one of the glamour twins of the NHL’s Canadian content, the Edmonton Oilers or the (gulp) Toronto Maple Leafs. The Oilers and their superstar Connor McDavid barely lost out last spring to Florida while the Leafs, laden with superstars like Auston Matthews and William Nylander, are overdue for a long playoff run.

Hockey Night In Canada positively pants for the chance to gush over these two squads each week. When was the last time Toronto played an afternoon game so HNIC could showcase the Jets? Like, never. Same for the Oilers, who with their glittering stars like McDavid Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent Hopkins are the primary tenants of the doubleheader slot, followed by Calgary. Winnipeg? We’ll get to them.

But there’s going to be no ignoring them in the spring of 2025. The Jets in the northern outpost in Manitoba were the top team in the entire league in 2024-25. They’ll comfortably win the Presidents Cup as the No. 1 squad and have home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. They have the league’s best goalie in Connor Hellebuyck (an American) and a stable of top scorers led by Kyle Connor and Mark Schiefele. Because Winnipeg is on a lot of No Trade lists, they have built themselves through the draft and thrifty budgeting.

But will the same people who swooned over the Jets in 2011 now find them as adorable if they ruin the Stanley Cup plot lines of the Oilers, Leafs and Ottawa Senators? Will the fans of Canadian teams in Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal not making the postseason take the Jets to their hearts or will they be as phoney as the Mike Myers commercials for the Liberals?

In addition, the Jets will be swamped by national media should they proceed through the playoffs. It’s one thing to carry the expectations of Winnipeg and Manitoba. It’s another to foot the bill for a hockey crazy county. We remember Vancouver’s GM Mike Gillis during the Canucks 2011 Cup run bemoaning the late arrivers of the press trying to critique his team as they made their way through the playoffs.

It will be no picnic for the Jets, however strong they’ve been in the regular season. No one was gunning for them as they might for the Oilers or Leafs. They will now get their opponents’ best game night after night. Hellebuyck has been a top three goalie in the NHL for a while, winning the Vezina Trophy, but his playoff performance hasn’t matched that of his regular-season version.

Already the injury bug that sidelines so many Cup dreams is biting at the Jets. Nikolaj Ehlers collided with a linesman in Saturday’s OT win in Chicago. Defenceman Dylan Samberg is also questionable after stopping a McDavid slap shot with his leg. A rash of injuries has ended the run of many a worthy Cup aspirant in the past. Can Winnipeg’s depth sustain the churn of seven weeks of all-out hockey?

As always for the small-market Jets time is of the essence. Keeping this core together is difficult with large markets lusting after your players. With the NHL salary cap going up it remains a chore to keep their top players. Schiefele and Hellebuyck are tied up longterm, but 40-goal man Connor is a UFA after next season while Ehlers is not signed after this season. Young Cole Perfetti will be an RFA in 2026. Etc.

So how much do Canadians love the Jets if they sneak in and steal the hero role by winning a Canadian Cup? Lets see Ron MacLean pun his way through that one.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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2025 Federal Election

What Trump Says About Modern U.S. And What Carney Is Hiding About Canada

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“Reporters once asked legendary boxer Rocky Graziano why he hugged his opponent after the guy had pounded him senseless for 15 rounds. “He stopped punching me, didn’t he?” That sums up the reaction of Boomer voters hugging Mark Carney after ten years of having Liberals pound them. They can rationalize any amount of suffering.”

The two looming figures in the current “hurry up before they find out who Mark Carney is” election are Carney, the transnational banker/ climate zealot/ not-Trudeau Liberal, and Donald Trump. Yes, Pierre Poilievre is running against Carney, but Carney and the Gerry Butts braintrust are running against the U.S. president.

And not just POTUS 45/47. They’re running against the SNL cartoon figure embraced by Canada’s mainstream media outlets. Depending on the day the Toronto Star/ CBC/ Ottawa Citizen iteration of Trump is “stupid”, “racist”, “sex fiend” and, for this campaign, the boogeyman who will swallow Canada whole. While these scribblers and talking heads themselves are going broke, they imagine Trump as an economic moron collapsing the western economy.

All the clever Conservative ads, all the Carney flubs, all the revelations of election rigging by Chinese operatives— none of it matters to Canada’s Boomers huddled against the blustering winds of Trump. They call it Team Canada but it might just as well be Team Surrender to people who are willing to keep the Liberals’ Gong Show going for another four years.

As they say, you’re welcome to your own opinion, you’re just not welcome to your own facts. And the facts are that Trump and Carney are representative of their separate nations in 2025. Before we address the parachute PM Carney let us suggest that CDNs weaned on Stephen Colbert and John Oliver have little idea why Trump is the most impactful American politician of the century so far.

But don’t take our word for it. Here’s Democratic comedian Dave Chappelle explaining why so many remain loyal to the former Democrat and reality TV star in the face of impeachments, criminal charges and yes, bullets. Chappelle, who lives outside the Hollywood bubble in Ohio, said, “I’m not joking right now, he’s an honest liar. That first (2016) debate, I’ve never seen anything like it. I’ve never seen a white male billionaire screaming at the top of his lungs, ‘This whole system is rigged.’

“And the moderator said, ‘Well Mr. Trump if, in fact, the system is rigged as you suggest, what would be your evidence?’ He said, ‘I know the system is rigged because I use it.’ I said ‘Goddamn’.

“No one ever heard someone say something so true. And then Hillary Clinton tried to punch him on the taxes. She said, ‘This man doesn’t pay his taxes,’ he said, ‘That makes me smart.’ And then he said, ‘If you want me to pay my taxes, then change the tax code. But I know you won’t, because your friends and your donors enjoy the same tax breaks that I do.’…

“No one had ever seen anything like that. No one had ever seen somebody come from inside of that house outside and tell all the commoners we are doing everything that you think we are doing inside of that house. And a legend was born.”

In short, Trump is what we want politicians to be. Aspirational, yes. But willing to act. We can take it. Yes, his truth is wrapped in multiple layers of balderdash and folderol. There is a preening ego. Self serving. Vainglorious. Opportunistic. Bombastic.

But he recognized that no one— GOP included— wanted anything to do with closing borders, ending foreign wars, levelling the trade barriers. So while Canadians whined, he took them on, and for that he’s been given two terms in the White House. You can understand why people wanted him dead last summer. He’s bad for the business he exposed in that debate with Hillary.

So Canadian liberals might sneer and condescend, but Trump’s answering to a legitimate voice in an America that was deceived and abused during Covid. And had a senile man as POTUS being manipulated by unseen characters behind the scenes.

Which begs the question: What in the Canadian character is Mark Carney answering to as he is dropped into the seat formally occupied by Justin Trudeau? The most obvious answer is Trump’s 51st state musings as he seeks to re-order the world’s tariff system. But what about repudiating everything he and his party stood for the past decade? How does that fit into the Carney identity?

While Trump has a resounding mandate to pursue the issues he campaigned on, Carney has a manipulated Liberal leadership contest, no seat and Mike Myers. Plus a media that owes its living to his party’s bribing them.

It would be hard to imagine more own goals than Carney’s record since the Liberals rigged his nomination. The China denials, the offshore tax evasions, the three passports, the renunciation of his entire work history, the re-hiring the worst of Trudeau’s cabinet, the bad body language… yet every gaffe increases his numbers in the purchased polls and the bought media. It will be an amazing story when it’s written.

But it’s not being written that way now. Because Donald Trump has activated Canada’s passion for authority and the expert class. While the rest of the world has awakened to the government’s deliberate manipulation of fear and white-coat reverence during Covid, Canada’s Boomers are still in awe of people like Carney. They still think the vaccines work. That The Science was behind it all.

So prepare for another 15 rounds of being slugged in the head by people who don’t have your goals in mind. Don’t say you we weren’t warned.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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