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Alberta

Province announces new target for Alberta Heritage Fund

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Alberta’s government is taking action to grow the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund to at least $250 billion by 2050.

In 1976, former premier Peter Lougheed had the foresight to create what is today commonly called the Alberta Heritage Fund. The initial purpose of this fund was to invest a portion of Alberta’s non-renewable resource royalties each year so the investment interest earned in the fund would reduce the province’s reliance on resource revenues.

For decades, contributions to the Heritage Fund were limited and investment earnings were spent instead of being reinvested. Now, Alberta is adopting a bold, new plan to grow the Heritage Fund and achieve long-term growth and financial stability for the province. When the fund reaches its goal of $250 billion, the province can use a portion of the annual interest accrued to offset any decreases in resource royalties, invest in key provincial infrastructure and grow and protect the Alberta tax advantage.

The roadmap details how the “Alberta Model” will use three components to grow the fund to $250 billion and eventually fund public services and vital infrastructure:

  • Strategic investments: There is a strong focus on opportunities that maximize growth while supporting areas that matter to Albertans, such as technology, energy and infrastructure.
  • Global partnerships: The model benefits from working closely with like-minded organizations and investors around the world, to access premier opportunities and bring new ideas and expertise back to the province.
  • Strong governance: The model is structured to ensure transparent and responsible investment management, so that every decision is made with the long-term interests of Albertans in mind.

“Albertans deserve a Heritage Fund they can rely on – one that is focused on creating long-term growth and financial stability. We owe it to future generations of Albertans. The new Heritage Fund will lessen our dependence on natural resource revenues, diversify our economy, and create both wealth and prosperity for generations to come.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

This plan builds on the vision of former premier Peter Lougheed and builds on the recent investments into the fund. As of September 2024, the Heritage Fund is worth $24.3 billion. With a $2-billion commitment from Budget 2024, the fund is projected to increase to more than $26 billion by the end of the 2024-25 fiscal year. If all of the Heritage Fund’s investment income had been reinvested since inception instead of being transferred to the general revenue fund, the Heritage Fund would be upwards of $250 billion today, generating about $20 billion annually.

Now is the time to take decisive action. By saving and reinvesting today, Alberta will reduce its reliance on unpredictable non-renewable resource revenue. A renewed Heritage Fund that earns money year over year will secure a resilient and prosperous Alberta for generations to come.

“Our plan to grow the Heritage Fund is about securing Alberta’s financial independence and providing stability for our children and grandchildren and build a lasting legacy for all Albertans.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Strong governance is needed to provide direction, deliver high returns for Albertans, and ensure future growth amid changing economic conditions. To help achieve this and carry out the overall Heritage Fund plan, Alberta’s government has created the Heritage Fund Opportunities Corporation to govern and grow all Heritage Fund assets. The new corporation will strengthen partnerships with global sovereign wealth funds, thereby unlocking access to new opportunities. The new corporation will be assisted in its work by a world-class board of directors that will strengthen the governance of Heritage Fund assets and support investment decisions independent from government.

The Heritage Fund Opportunities Corporation will be chaired by Joe Lougheed.

“The Heritage Fund assets belong to Albertans – and future Albertans. The HFOC will have a world-class, independent board of directors providing oversight and guidance in an accountable and transparent fashion. Working closely with the Alberta Investment Management Corporation, the objective will be to deliver long-term growth of the assets of the Heritage Fund for future generations.  It is an honour to serve in this governance role.”

Joe Lougheed, Chair, Heritage Fund Opportunities Corporation

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Alberta

Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

Published on

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.

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Alberta

Governments in Alberta should spur homebuilding amid population explosion

Published on

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Austin Thompson

In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Alberta has long been viewed as an oasis in Canada’s overheated housing market—a refuge for Canadians priced out of high-cost centres such as Vancouver and Toronto. But the oasis is starting to dry up. House prices and rents in the province have spiked by about one-third since the start of the pandemic. According to a recent Maru poll, more than 70 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians doubt they will ever be able to afford a home in their city. Which raises the question: how much longer can this go on?

Alberta’s housing affordability problem reflects a simple reality—not enough homes have been built to accommodate the province’s growing population. The result? More Albertans competing for the same homes and rental units, pushing prices higher.

Population growth has always been volatile in Alberta, but the recent surge, fuelled by record levels of immigration, is unprecedented. Alberta has set new population growth records every year since 2022, culminating in the largest-ever increase of 186,704 new residents in 2024—nearly 70 per cent more than the largest pre-pandemic increase in 2013.

Homebuilding has increased, but not enough to keep pace with the rise in population. In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Moreover, from 1972 to 2019, Alberta added 2.1 new residents (on average) for every housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents for every housing unit started in 2024. Put differently, today nearly twice as many new residents are potentially competing for each new home compared to historical norms.

While Alberta attracts more Canadians from other provinces than any other province, federal immigration and residency policies drive Alberta’s population growth. So while the provincial government has little control over its population growth, provincial and municipal governments can affect the pace of homebuilding.

For example, recent provincial amendments to the city charters in Calgary and Edmonton have helped standardize building codes, which should minimize cost and complexity for builders who operate across different jurisdictions. Municipal zoning reforms in CalgaryEdmonton and Red Deer have made it easier to build higher-density housing, and Lethbridge and Medicine Hat may soon follow suit. These changes should make it easier and faster to build homes, helping Alberta maintain some of the least restrictive building rules and quickest approval timelines in Canada.

There is, however, room for improvement. Policymakers at both the provincial and municipal level should streamline rules for building, reduce regulatory uncertainty and development costs, and shorten timelines for permit approvals. Calgary, for instance, imposes fees on developers to fund a wide array of public infrastructure—including roads, sewers, libraries, even buses—while Edmonton currently only imposes fees to fund the construction of new firehalls.

It’s difficult to say how long Alberta’s housing affordability woes will endure, but the situation is unlikely to improve unless homebuilding increases, spurred by government policies that facilitate more development.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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