Canadian Energy Centre
Proposed emissions cap threatens critical Canada-U.S. energy trade

From the Canadian Energy Centre
The vast majority of Canadian oil exports to the United States are processed in Midwest states. Above, the Cushing Terminal near Cushing, Oklahoma is Enbridge’s largest tank farm and the most significant trading hub for North American crude.
Canada and the United States share something that doesn’t exist anywhere else. A vast, interconnected energy network that today produces more oil and gas than any other region – including the Middle East, according to analysis by S&P Global.
It’s a blanket of energy security researchers called “a powerful card to play” in increasingly unstable times.
But, according to two leaders in governance and energy policy, that relationship is at risk.
Analysis has shown that the federal proposal to cap emissions in Canada’s oil and gas sector would result in reduced production. That likely means less energy available to Canada’s largest customer, the United States.
Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, is a former Canadian political staffer born in northern Alberta now living in Washington, D.C.
Heather Exner-Pirot is a prominent energy policy analyst and senior fellow with the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
Here’s what they shared with CEC.
CEC: The U.S. is one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers. Why does it need imports from Canada?
HEP: It’s because all oil is not the same. The United States developed its refinery industry before the shale revolution, when they were importing heavier crudes. Canada has that heavier crude. They are now exporting some of their sweet light oil and importing Canadian crude because that’s what their refinery mix requires.
What’s interesting is that we have never exported more Canadian crude to the United States than we are right now. Even as they have become the world’s largest oil producer, they’ve never needed Canadian oil more than today.
They also import a ton of natural gas from us. They have become the world’s biggest gas producer and the world’s biggest gas exporter, but part of that, and having their LNG capacity being able to so quickly surpass Qatar and Australia, is because some of the production is being backfilled by Canada.
CEC: Will the incoming new administration (either Democrat or Republican) impact the Canada-U.S. energy relationship?
JT: I don’t see a big change happening in such a way as it did when the Biden administration came in with the axing of the Keystone XL pipeline. Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine, the global energy market has changed radically.
On the Republican side, Trump often repeats the phrase “drill, baby drill.” The issue is that the U.S. is already drilling about as much as demand allows.
I don’t think a Harris government would move quickly to limit oil and gas production without having a strategic alternative in place. It simply would make her look very weak, and she has explicitly said that she would not ban fracking.
In the post-COVID world, I believe that the Democrat side of the aisle is coming to the view that it was a geopolitical mistake in terms of securing North American energy dominance to cut the Keystone XL pipeline.
The reality is that being able to export refined Canadian feedstock is key to keeping the U.S. as an energy superpower.
The U.S. government continues to offer and subsidize tax credits for investment in carbon capture technology. Even though Trump has said that he would end all of those carbon capture credits and subsidies, it still would not stop the U.S. from importing Canadian oil and gas.
That’s only going to grow as things like AI continue to create more demand for energy. A huge amount of the United States electrical energy grid is powered still by natural gas, and that’s going to take decades to change.
CEC: Would a reduction in Canadian production from the federal government’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap impact the United States?
HEP: Yes, and we should be raising the alarm bells. The federal government has said it is a cap on emissions, not a cap on production, but all the analysis that Alberta and the oil and gas sector have done is that it will create somewhere between 1 million and 2 million barrels of production being shut in.
Well, 95 per cent of our exports are to the United States. If we are shutting in 1 million barrels or 2 million barrels, that all comes out of their end just when their shale oil is expected to plateau and decline.
A cap would also tap down natural gas production and LNG capacity. If you’re Japan or South Korea and you’re looking to secure 20 years of supply, the cap creates a lot of uncertainty with that Canadian supply. There’s zero uncertainty with Qatar’s supply. If you’re Japanese, these are not pleasant conversations. This is not giving you confidence. And if you don’t have confidence in LNG, you’re going to burn coal.
In a perfect world, Canada would supply LNG to Asia, the United States would supply it to Europe, and we’d be a pretty energy-independent Western alliance.
I wish we would be honest that we need a different way to reduce emissions that does not take away from production, because that capacity is a big part of what we offer our allies right now.
JT: It threatens the security of North America in a big way because the energy dominance of the United States is tied to Canada. Especially with what’s going on in Russia and other countries, it behooves us as Canadians and me as an American to remember that security is not freely granted.
We have to make sure that we are thinking more holistically when we think of things like emissions cap legislation that’s going to have knock-on effects and may even increase emissions. If you’re trying to replace that feedstock, it’s got to come from somewhere.
Canadian Energy Centre
‘Big vulnerability’: How Ontario and Quebec became reliant on U.S. oil and gas

From the Canadian Energy Centre
ARC Energy Institute leaders highlight the need for a new approach in a new reality
Despite Canada’s status as one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, more than half of the country’s own population does not have true energy security – uninterrupted, reliable access to the energy they need at an affordable price.
Even though Western Canada produces much of the oil consumed in Ontario and Quebec, in order to get there, it moves on pipelines that run through the United States.
“It’s only energy secure if the Americans are our partners and friends,” leading energy researcher Jackie Forrest said on a recent episode of the ARC Energy Ideas podcast.
Amid rising trade tensions with the United States, energy security is taking on greater importance. But Forrest said the issue is not well understood across Canada.
“The concern is that in the worst-case scenario where the Americans want to really hurt our country, they have the ability to stop all crude oil flows to Ontario,” she said.
That action would also cut off the majority of oil supply to Quebec.
The issue isn’t much better for natural gas, with about half of consumption in Ontario and Quebec supplied by producers in the U.S.
“Tariffs or no tariffs, there is a real vulnerability there,” said Forrest’s co-host Peter Tertzakian, founder of the ARC Energy Research Institute.
The issue won’t go away with increased use of new technology like electric cars, he said.
“This isn’t just about combustion in engines. It’s about securing a vital commodity that is an input into other parts of our manufacturing and sophisticated economy.”
Oil: The Enbridge Mainline
The Enbridge Mainline is the main path for oil from Western Canada to reach refineries in Ontario and Quebec, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
Originating in Edmonton, Alberta, the Enbridge Mainline moves crude oil, refined products, and natural gas liquids through a connected pipeline system. At Superior, Wisconsin, the system splits into Line 5, going north of Lake Michigan, and Lines 6, 14, and 61, going around the southern tip of the lake. The two routes then coalesce and terminate in Sarnia, Ontario, where it is interconnected with Line 9, which is terminated in Montreal, Quebec. Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Originally built in 1950 from Edmonton to Superior, Wisconsin, in 1953, it was extended to Sarnia, Ontario through a segment known as Line 5.
CAPP said that at the time, politicians had pushed for an all-Canadian path north of the Great Lakes to increase energy security, but routes through the U.S. were chosen because of lower project costs and faster timelines.
In 1979, an extension of the pipeline called Line 9 opened, allowing oil to flow east from Sarnia to Montreal.
“Line 9 was built after the oil crisis and the OPEC embargo as a way to bring western Canadian crude oil into Quebec,” Forrest said.
But by the 1990s – before the massive growth in Alberta’s oil sands – there was a lack of crude coming from Western Canada. It became more economically attractive for refineries in Quebec and Ontario to import oil from overseas via the St. Lawrence River, CAPP said.
A reversal in 1999 allowed crude in Line 9 to flow west from Montreal to Sarnia.
By the 2010s, the situation had changed again, with production from the Alberta oil sands and U.S. shale plays surging. With more of that oil available, the offshore crude was deemed to be more expensive, Forrest said.
In 2015, Line 9 was reversed to send oil east again from Sarnia to Montreal, displacing oil from overseas but not resolving the energy security risk of Canadian pipelines running through the U.S.
CAPP said the case of Line 5 illustrates this risk. In 2020, the Governor of Michigan attempted to shut down the pipeline over concerns about pipeline leak or potential oil spill in a seven-kilometre stretch under the Straits of Mackinac.
Line 5 has been operating in the Straits for 72 years without a single release.
Enbridge is advancing a project to encase the pipeline in a protective tunnel in the rock beneath the lakebed, but the legal battle with the State of Michigan remains ongoing.
Natural gas: The TC Canadian Mainline
The natural gas pipeline now known as TC Energy’s Canadian Mainline from Alberta was first built in 1958.
The TC Canadian Mainline (red dashed line) transports natural gas produced in Western Canada to markets in Eastern Canada. Red lines show pipelines regulated by the Canada Energy Regulator, while black lines show pipelines regulated by the United States. Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
“This pipeline brought gas into Ontario, and then it was extended to go into Quebec, and that was good for a long time,” Forrest said.
“But over time we built more pipelines into the United States, and it was a better economic path to go through the United States.”
The Mainline started running not at its full capacity, which caused tolls to go up and made it less and less attractive compared to U.S. options.
According to CAPP, between 2006 and 2023 the Mainline’s deliveries of gas from Western Canada to Ontario and Quebec were slashed in half.
“We should have said, ‘We need to find a way for this pipeline, over our own soil, to be competitive with the alternative’. But we didn’t,” Forrest said.
“Instead, we lost market share in Eastern Canada. And today we’re in a big bind, because if the Americans were to cut off our natural gas, we wouldn’t have enough natural gas into Quebec and Ontario.”
A different approach for a new reality
Forrest said the TC Mainline, which continues to operate at about half of its capacity, presents an opportunity to reduce Canada’s reliance on U.S. natural gas while at the same time building energy security for oil.
“Those are the same pipes that were going to be repurposed for oil, for Energy East,” Tertzakian said.
“The beauty of the thing is that actually, I don’t think it would take that long if we had the will… It’s doable that we can be energy secure.”
This could come at a higher cost but provide greater value over the long term.
“That’s always been the issue in Canada, when it comes to energy, we always go with the cheapest option and not the most energy secure,” Forrest said.
“And why? Because we always trusted our American neighbor to never do anything that will impact the flow of that energy. And I think we’re waking up to a new reality.”
Alberta
New children’s book demonstrates how the everyday world is connected to natural resources

From the Canadian Energy Centre
‘Today’s youth have the opportunity to lead us into the future with innovative solutions for environmental challenges’
After a 24-year career in oil sands land reclamation, author Tanya Richens is sharing her knowledge with young minds.
Her new book, From the Earth to Us: Discovering the Origins of Everyday Things, explores the relationship between natural resources and the things we use in everyday life, from computers and water bottles to batteries and solar panels.
“There is a gap in society’s understanding of where things come from. We are a society driven by consumerism and immediate gratification. We order something online, and it arrives on our doorstep the next day. We don’t stop to think about where it really came from or how it was made,” Richens says.
“There’s an ever-increasing societal position that mining is bad, and oil is even worse… But there’s a simple hypocrisy in those beliefs, since so many things in our lives are made from the raw materials that come from mining and oil and natural gas,” she says.
The book, illustrated by reclamation artist Shannon Carla King, follows young Hennessy Rose and her Cavalier King Charles Spaniel Riley on a trip to a children’s summer camp.
Hennessy’s mom is a guest speaker on the origin of everyday items and the relationship between humans and the earth. Through detailed explanations of items surrounding her, Hennessy’s mom teaches the kids how rocks, minerals, oil and gas from the earth are used to power and aid our lives, creating items such as building supplies, food and hair products, camping and sports equipment, and cell phones.
Author Tanya Richens poses with her two books for children about natural resources. Photo for Canadian Energy Centre
“I thought a simple and fun book explaining the raw materials needed to make everyday items would be valuable for all ages,” Richens says.
“When people feel personally connected to natural resources, they are more likely to promote sustainable practices. Today’s youth will have the opportunity to lead us into the future with innovative solutions for environmental challenges.”
Richens‘ career began with Alberta Environment, where she was a coordinator of reclamation approvals in the oil sands. She oversaw technical reviews of oil sands reclamation applications, communicated with statement of concern filers, coordinated public hearings and provided support for legislative changes.
She moved from government to Suncor Energy, ensuring the company’s compliance on reclamation projects and led initiatives to obtain reclamation certificates. She now works as an independent consultant.
Drawing on her wealth of experience in the field, Richens’ first book, Adventures in Land Reclamation: Exploring Jobs for a Greener Future, seeks to excite kids aged 9-12 years about jobs related to the environment and land reclamation.
Hoping to get From the Earth to Us into the hands of teachers, Richens is heading to the Edmonton Teachers Convention in late February. She says the book supports multiple learning outcomes in Alberta’s new science curriculum for grades 3, 4, 5 and 6.
“Ultimately, I’d like people to understand and acknowledge their individual part in the need for mining and oil and natural gas development. Until the naivety and hypocrisy in the world is addressed, I’m not sure that real environmental change is possible.”
Richens’ books can be purchased on her website at tcrenvironmental.com.
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