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Opinion

PM Trudeau’s “Monetary Policy” gaffe could cost the Liberals the election. But will it?

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8 minute read

Back in 1993 things were not going well for Canada’s Progressive Conservative Government.  Brian Mulroney’s government had served 2 mandates and Canadians were clearly ready to move on.  The Conservatives decided Kim Campbell would be the best leader to bring a renewed excitement to their reelection hopes.  Campbell was a fresh face and that was important to the party which was losing support quickly.  She was also from Vancouver, which was a nice change for the party normally represented by leaders from Ontario or Quebec.  Even more importantly, when she won the leadership she would become the first female leader of a country in North America.  As Canadians would discover just a few months later though, no one cared about any of that.  That campaign did not go well.  The Conservatives not only lost.  They were decimated right out of official party standing.  The governing party won just 2 seats in the entire nation (Jean Charest in Quebec, and Elsie Wayne in New Brunswick). Kim Campbell did not even win her own seat.  Henceforth the Reform Party represented the Conservative voice for the next two elections.

For one reason or another, Canadians simply did not connect with Kim Campbell.  One of the biggest gaffes of that election campaign came when a reporter pressed Campbell for details on an issue and she replied “The election is not a time to discuss serious issues.”  That was the wrong answer.  Despite what she may have truly meant, all Canadians heard was “I don’t need to explain anything to you.”.  That was exactly the wrong thing to say at the worst possible time.

Why bring this up now, 28 years later? Well Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made his first major gaffe of this election campaign.   And for those who care about monetary policy (which should be everyone who pays taxes and works or has savings, etc) it’s very likely as stunning a statement as Kim Campbell made three decades ago.

First some background.  In 2021, Canadians find themselves in an astounding situation.  When the covid pandemic hit last year governments all over the world shut down their economies for weeks, and then months.  Government stimulus was the order of the day and Canada’s was among the most generous in the world.  People were paid to stay at home.  Businesses were paid to continue to provide jobs to people working from home.  Landlords were paid to keep tenants afloat.  All in all, government money is being spent at unprecedented rates.

To pay for all this the Trudeau government attempted to pass a bill through Parliament which would allow it to raise taxes at will without a budget and without even coming back to ask Parliament to present a plan or ask for approval.  That didn’t go over so well.  But instead of turning back the taps, or introducing a budget with higher taxes the government worked out a plan with the Bank of Canada.  How this works basically is that every month the Bank of Canada prints out a few billion dollars, and the government uses that to pay for all the stimulus they want.  Over the first year of covid that totalled about 350 Billion dollars!

The Bank of Canada has left the core function expressed in its mandate in order to print all this extra money.  Despite it’s best efforts to decouple inflation from the printing of extra money, it’s not working.  Canada’s inflation rate has been blowing through the target of 2% month after month after month.

This is the the mandate as expressed by the Bank of Canada itself on its website.

The Bank of Canada is the nation’s central bank. Its mandate, as defined in the Bank of Canada Act, is “to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada.” The Bank’s vision is to be a leading central bank—dynamic, engaged and trusted—committed to a better Canada.

The Bank has four core functions:

  • Monetary policy: The Bank’s monetary policy framework aims to keep inflation low, stable and predictable.
  • Financial system: The Bank promotes safe, sound and efficient financial systems within Canada and internationally.
  • Currency: The Bank designs, issues and distributes Canada’s bank notes.
  • Funds management: The Bank acts as fiscal agent for the Government of Canada, managing its public debt programs and foreign exchange reserves.

The Bank of Canada’s mandate is expiring at the end of this year and the new mandate could change.  Some are saying the Bank should continue to print money at an unprecedented rate and Canadians will learn to live with high inflation.  Considering this drives up the cost of everything from our homes and vehicles, to the food we eat there could hardly be a more important issue.  That’s why PM Trudeau’s response to this question in Vancouver this week is so stunning.  When asked if he would consider a higher tolerance for inflation going forward here’s what he said.

 

Reporter Question about the renewal of the Bank of Canada mandate due at the end of 2021:

-Do you have thoughts about that mandate?  Would you consider a slightly higher tolerance for inflation?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: “When I think about the biggest, most important economic policy this government, if re-elected, would move forward, you’ll forgive me if I don’t think about monetary policy.” 

Of course this spurred an immediate reaction from the opposition Conservatives.  That oppostion is perhaps best summed up in this address from Pierre Poilievre.

The question is, will Canadians punish Prime Minister Trudeau for either lacking basic economic knowledge, or not caring about it?  Kim Campbell failed to win her own seat, but she did not seem to connect well with Canadians at all even before that election campaign.  Justin Trudeau has so far been immune to gaffes.  Even though he’s had more than 5 years in government, millions of Canadians stand by him loyally.  Will this time be any different?

Before Post

After 15 years as a TV reporter with Global and CBC and as news director of RDTV in Red Deer, Duane set out on his own 2008 as a visual storyteller. During this period, he became fascinated with a burgeoning online world and how it could better serve local communities. This fascination led to Todayville, launched in 2016.

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Energy

Trump signs four executive orders promoting coal industry

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From The Center Square

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President Donald Trump signed four executive orders Tuesday promoting the deregulation and expansion of the “beautiful, clean coal” industry in the U.S.

The first order White House Staff Secretary Will Scharf said might be “one of the most significant executive orders” the president has issued so far.

“This directs all departments and agencies of the federal government to end all discriminatory policies against the coal industry. This ends the leasing moratorium that prevents new coal projects on federal land, and it’s going to accelerate all permitting and funding for new coal projects,” Scharf said.

The other executive orders attempt to prevent some Biden-era policies from going into effect that would have caused the shuttering of dozens of American coal plants; support policies promoting the continued incorporation of coal and fossil-fuel forms of energy into the grid; and direct the Department of Justice to investigate state policies that may illegally or unconstitutionally “[discriminate] against coal” and “secure sources of energy.”

The White House hosted a large group of coal miners, members of Congress, administration officials and others Tuesday afternoon to commemorate the “Unleashing American Energy” signing event.

“This is a very important day to me because we’re bringing back an industry that was abandoned despite the fact that it was just about the best – certainly the best in terms of power, real power,” Trump said.

Trump said he was “honored” to be signing the orders in defense of the coal industry and that the administration was “ending Joe Biden’s war on beautiful, clean coal once and for all.”

Trump also said his administration was working on something unique that would guarantee the coal industry would not be upended by changes in administrations, based on an idea he had “about 15 minutes” before the event.

“We’re going to give a guarantee that… if somebody comes in, they can’t change it at a whim. They’re gonna have to go through hell to close you up,” he said to the coal miners.

Under the new administration, the department of the interior has approved the expansion of the Spring Creek Mine in Montana, and Trump promised there would be more coal ventures in Alabama, North Dakota, Utah, Wyoming and other states.

“I think we’re gonna look back with great pride at what we’ve done today – not just in putting people to work but at really reawakening our country,” Trump said.

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Business

Trump raises China tariffs to 125%, announces 90-day pause for countries who’ve reached out to negotiate

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Quick Hit:

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced an immediate increase in tariffs on China to 125%, citing “a lack of respect” toward global markets. At the same time, he approved a 90-day pause and tariff reduction for over 75 countries that have engaged with the U.S. on trade reforms.

Key Details:

  • Trump said the dramatic tariff hike on China is meant to send a clear message: “the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”

  • The president added that over 75 countries have reached out to the U.S. Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to negotiate on issues including trade barriers, tariffs, and currency manipulation.

  • As a goodwill measure, Trump authorized “a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately,” noting that these countries had not retaliated against the U.S. despite strong prior warnings.

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Diving Deeper:

President Donald Trump on Wednesday took a major step in reshaping the global trade landscape, announcing via Truth Social that he is raising tariffs on China to 125% effective immediately. Trump attributed the decision to “the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets,” and said it is time for Beijing to face consequences for its trade practices.

“At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable,” Trump stated.

The president emphasized that this was not a blanket policy toward all trading partners. In contrast to China, Trump said more than 75 countries have reached out to American trade officials to address ongoing issues related to tariffs and trade barriers.

“More than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs,” he wrote.

Citing those discussions and the absence of retaliation against the U.S., Trump approved a temporary reduction in reciprocal tariffs for those countries. “I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately.”

The move reflects a two-pronged strategy—punishing China for what Trump sees as longstanding economic abuses while rewarding countries that have shown a willingness to work with the U.S. to level the playing field.

The 125% tariff marks one of the most aggressive steps in Trump’s America First trade doctrine, likely signaling to both allies and adversaries that a second Trump administration would continue its hardline economic policies.

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