Canadian Energy Centre
Over $420 billion in government revenues from the Canadian oil sands sector expected through 2050
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Annual government revenues from Canada’s oil sands sector expected to rise to US$19.4 billion in 2050
With ongoing public discussions focusing on net zero emissions from Canada’s oil sands sector, it is a good time to examine projected government revenues and capital expenditures (capex) expected from the sector through 2050. This analysis illustrates how investment in low-emitting technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCUS), will help preserve government revenues and capex in Canada’s oil sands sector.
This Fact Sheet makes these calculations based on a conservative projection that the Brent price for oil will average US$60 per barrel between 2023 and 2050. The capex and government revenue numbers are expressed in nominal US dollars, assuming a 2.5 per cent inflation rate and a 10 per cent discount rate.
The written content in this report was prepared by the Canadian Energy Centre (CEC). It relies on data obtained from the Rystad Energy UCube, but it does not represent the views of Rystad Energy.
Background on Rystad Energy UCube
Rystad Energy is an independent energy research company providing data, analytics and consultancy services to clients around the globe.
UCube is Rystad Energy’s global upstream database, including production and economics (costs, revenues, and valuations) for more than 80,000 assets, covering the portfolios of more than 3,500 companies.
The UCube data set is used to study all parts of the global exploration and production (E&P) activity value chain, including operational costs, investment (capex and opex), fiscal terms, and net cash flows for projects and companies, both globally and by country (Rystad Energy, 2023).
In this Fact Sheet, we use a constant price in real terms for our analysis of government revenues and capex from the oil sands sector, with Brent crude oil prices set to a constant US$60 per barrel between 2023 and 2050.
Canadian oil sands sector government revenues to reach over U.S. $420 billion through 2050
Under a US$60 per barrel price trajectory, Canadian government revenues (which includes provincial royalties and federal and provincial corporate taxes) from the country’s oil sands sector are expected to rise from an annual US$12.1 billion in 2023 to US$19.4 billion in 2050 (see Figure 1).
On a cumulative basis, between 2023 and 2050 Canadian government revenues from the oil sands sector are projected to be over US$420.7 billion.
Source: Derived from the Rystad Energy UCube, based on $60 USD per barrel price scenario
Capital expenditures (capex) in Canada’s oil sands sector to reach nearly U.S. $328 billion through 2050
Under the US$60 per barrel price projection, capital expenditures (capex) in Canada’s oil sands sector are expected to rise from US$10.6 billion in 2023 to US$12.6 billion in 2050 (see Figure 2).
Cumulatively between 2023 and 2050, Canadian oil sands sector capex is projected at nearly US$327.8 billion.
Source: Derived from the Rystad Energy UCube, based on $60 USD per barrel price scenario
Notes
This CEC Fact Sheet was compiled by Lennie Kaplan at the Canadian Energy Centre (www.canadianenergycentre.ca). The author and the Canadian Energy Centre would like to thank and acknowledge the assistance of two anonymous reviewers in reviewing the data and research for this Fact Sheet. The written content in this report was prepared by the Canadian Energy Centre (CEC) and does not represent the views of Rystad Energy.
References (All links live as of September 19, 2023)
Rystad Energy. (2023). Upstream Solution. <https://bit.ly/3veaMIV>.
Alberta
Heavy-duty truckers welcome new ‘natural gas highway’ in Alberta
Clean Energy Fuels CEO Andrew Littlefair, Tourmaline CEO Mike Rose, and Mullen Group chairman Murray Mullen attend the opening of a new Clean Energy/Tourmaline compressed natural gas (CNG) fuelling station in Calgary on Oct. 22, 2024. Photo courtesy Tourmaline
From the Canadian Energy Centre
New compressed natural gas fueling stations in Grande Prairie and Calgary join new stop in Edmonton
Heavy-duty truckers hauling everything from restaurant supplies to specialized oilfield services along one of Western Canada’s busiest corridors now have more access to a fuel that can help reduce emissions and save costs.
Two new fuelling stations serving compressed natural gas (CNG) rather than diesel in Grande Prairie and Calgary, along with a stop that opened in Edmonton last year, create the first phase of what proponents call a “natural gas highway”.
“Compressed natural gas is viable, it’s competitive and it’s good for the environment,” said Murray Mullen, chair of Mullen Group, which operates more than 4,300 trucks and thousands of pieces of equipment supporting Western Canada’s energy industry.
Right now, the company is running 19 CNG units and plans to deploy another 15 as they become available.
“They’re running the highways right now and they’re performing exceptionally well,” Mullen said on Oct. 22 during the ribbon-cutting ceremony opening the new station on the northern edge of Calgary along Highway 2.
“Our people love them, our customers love them and I think it’s going to be the way for the future to be honest,” he said.
Heavy-duty trucks at Tourmaline and Clean Energy’s new Calgary compressed natural gas fuelling station. Photo courtesy Tourmaline
According to Natural Resources Canada, natural gas burns more cleanly than gasoline or diesel fuel, producing fewer toxic pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change.
The two new CNG stops are part of a $70 million partnership announced last year between major Canadian natural gas producer Tourmaline and California-based Clean Energy Fuels.
Their deal would see up to 20 new CNG stations built in Western Canada over the next five years, daily filling up to 3,000 natural gas-fueled trucks.
One of North America’s biggest trucking suppliers to businesses including McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, Subway and Popeye’s says the new stations will help as it expands its fleet of CNG-powered vehicles across Canada.
Amy Senter, global vice-president of sustainability with Illinois-based Martin Brower, said in a statement that using more CNG is critical to the company achieving its emissions reduction targets.
For Tourmaline, delivering CNG to heavy-duty truckers builds on its multi-year program to displace diesel in its operations, primarily by switching drilling equipment to run on natural gas.
Between 2018 and 2022, the company displaced the equivalent of 36 Olympic-sized swimming pools worth of diesel that didn’t get used, or the equivalent emissions of about 58,000 passenger vehicles.
Tourmaline CEO Mike Rose speaks to reporters during the opening of a new Tourmaline/Clean Energy compressed natural gas fuelling station in Calgary on Oct. 22, 2024. Photo courtesy Tourmaline
Tourmaline CEO Mike Rose noted that the trucking sector switching fuel from diesel to natural gas is gaining momentum, notably in Asia.
A “small but growing” share of China’s trucking fleet moving to natural gas helped drive an 11 percent reduction in overall diesel consumption this June compared to the previous year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“China’s talking about 30 percent of the trucks sold going forward are to be CNG trucks, and it’s all about reducing emissions,” Rose said.
“It’s one global atmosphere. We’re going to reduce them here; they’re going to reduce them there and everybody’s a net winner.”
Switching from diesel to CNG is “extremely cost competitive” for trucking fleets, said Clean Energy CEO Andrew Littlefair.
“It will really move the big rigs that we need in Western Canada for the long distance and heavy loads,” he said.
Tourmaline and Clean Energy aim to have seven CNG fuelling stations operating by the end of 2025. Construction is set to begin in Kamloops, B.C., followed by Fort McMurray and Fort St. John.
“You’ll have that Western Canadian corridor, and then we’ll grow it from there,” Littlefair said.
Canadian Energy Centre
Alberta Indigenous energy ownership driving increased economic activity
In December 2023, the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation provided a $150 million loan guarantee to support the 12 Indigenous Communities of Wapiscanis Waseskwan Nipiy Limited Partnership (including the Peerless Trout First Nation) in financing an equity investment in oil and gas midstream infrastructure in the Clearwater play in Northern Alberta. Photo courtesy AIOC
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
‘We live in a new world, and I’m excited about the possibilities’
Five pristine lakes sit in and around the Peerless Trout First Nation in the unbroken boreal forest of north-central Alberta about 200 kilometres north of Slave Lake.
When asked about the fishing, Tyler Letendre smiles wryly. “It lives up to the name,” says the Nation’s director of operations and economic development officer. “It’s peerless.”
The community’s leadership is exploring the idea of building a lodge to lure recreational anglers from across North America to reel in the large pike, trout and walleye that inhabit the dark blue waters in those lakes.
After joining the Clearwater Infrastructure Limited Partnership in December 2023 with 11 other Indigenous communities and Tamarack Valley Energy, they have the financial clout to develop a resort.
“Joining the partnership has been a game changer for our nation, 100 per cent. We won’t compromise on treaty rights, but we are big fans of economic growth,” says Letendre.
“The money provided by the federal government to First Nations isn’t enough to sustain the programs and infrastructure required so we have to generate our own income. Equity deals like Clearwater do that,” he says.
“We are shareholders along with major institutions. We now have banks who want to come invest in our communities. We live in a new world, and I’m excited about the possibilities.”
The growing number and value of Indigenous equity ownership deals in Alberta is helping fuel stronger participation in the province’s economy, according to a recently released report from ATB Financial and MNP.
The study concluded that total Indigenous economic activity in Alberta grew by a substantial 42 per cent between 2019 and 2023.
Last year, Indigenous-owned businesses generated $5.25 billion in economic output, $380 million in tax revenues and $1.33 billion in labour income from 25,800 full-time jobs.
The resource sector has an outsized impact in this area as its relationship with First Nations and Métis communities in Alberta has evolved and grown.
“The fastest growing and largest opportunities for Indigenous communities in Alberta come from the resource sector,” says Justin Bourque, president of Âsokan Generational Developments, a consultancy that specializes in partnerships between Indigenous communities and industry.
He says the evolution of the relationship between Indigenous communities and the resource sector has mirrored the broader progress of reconciliation.
“Our entire society is on a journey of reconciliation between Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities. The engagement and relationship between the resource industry and Indigenous has continued to evolve.”
In recent years, particularly following the creation of the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) in 2019, these relationships have increasingly moved from short-term benefits to long-term legacies through equity ownership deals like Peerless Trout’s agreement with Tamarack Energy.
ATB highlighted the Astisiy project in the oil sands region, a Cree word meaning “thread from sinew” that is used for Indigenous beading.
In September 2021, Suncor Energy and the AIOC enabled eight Indigenous communities to acquire 15 per cent ownership of the Northern Courier Pipeline, a 90-kilometre system that transports bitumen from the Fort Hills mine to the East Tank Farm north of Fort McMurray.
The community partners are projected to receive $16 million in annual payments from the deal.
Bourque’s Willow Lake Métis Nation has used its portion of the revenues to purchase a 205-acre parcel southeast of Fort McMurray, giving the community land to call its own.
“Ownership and partnership is the next logical evolution of the relationship between Indigenous communities and the energy sector,” says Bourque.
“Before Indigenous communities had the opportunity to invest in these resource assets, a lot of the economic value out of these investments would flow to institutional investors along with the corporation,” he says.
“By having some of those benefits flow into Indigenous communities, it builds both resilience by giving them financial sovereignty and allows that community to address priorities and needs determined by them, not somebody in Ottawa.”
Opportunities are now happening at the Peerless Trout First Nation.
“Our chief and council are in the best position to decide what works for the 900 members of Peerless Lake when it comes to how to invest the monies from the partnership, whether that’s in housing, education, health care, more post-secondary scholarships or building a hockey arena or community facility,” Letendre says.
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