Canadian Energy Centre
Over $420 billion in government revenues from the Canadian oil sands sector expected through 2050

From the Canadian Energy Centre
Annual government revenues from Canada’s oil sands sector expected to rise to US$19.4 billion in 2050
With ongoing public discussions focusing on net zero emissions from Canada’s oil sands sector, it is a good time to examine projected government revenues and capital expenditures (capex) expected from the sector through 2050. This analysis illustrates how investment in low-emitting technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCUS), will help preserve government revenues and capex in Canada’s oil sands sector.
This Fact Sheet makes these calculations based on a conservative projection that the Brent price for oil will average US$60 per barrel between 2023 and 2050. The capex and government revenue numbers are expressed in nominal US dollars, assuming a 2.5 per cent inflation rate and a 10 per cent discount rate.
The written content in this report was prepared by the Canadian Energy Centre (CEC). It relies on data obtained from the Rystad Energy UCube, but it does not represent the views of Rystad Energy.
Background on Rystad Energy UCube
Rystad Energy is an independent energy research company providing data, analytics and consultancy services to clients around the globe.
UCube is Rystad Energy’s global upstream database, including production and economics (costs, revenues, and valuations) for more than 80,000 assets, covering the portfolios of more than 3,500 companies.
The UCube data set is used to study all parts of the global exploration and production (E&P) activity value chain, including operational costs, investment (capex and opex), fiscal terms, and net cash flows for projects and companies, both globally and by country (Rystad Energy, 2023).
In this Fact Sheet, we use a constant price in real terms for our analysis of government revenues and capex from the oil sands sector, with Brent crude oil prices set to a constant US$60 per barrel between 2023 and 2050.
Canadian oil sands sector government revenues to reach over U.S. $420 billion through 2050
Under a US$60 per barrel price trajectory, Canadian government revenues (which includes provincial royalties and federal and provincial corporate taxes) from the country’s oil sands sector are expected to rise from an annual US$12.1 billion in 2023 to US$19.4 billion in 2050 (see Figure 1).
On a cumulative basis, between 2023 and 2050 Canadian government revenues from the oil sands sector are projected to be over US$420.7 billion.

Source: Derived from the Rystad Energy UCube, based on $60 USD per barrel price scenario
Capital expenditures (capex) in Canada’s oil sands sector to reach nearly U.S. $328 billion through 2050
Under the US$60 per barrel price projection, capital expenditures (capex) in Canada’s oil sands sector are expected to rise from US$10.6 billion in 2023 to US$12.6 billion in 2050 (see Figure 2).
Cumulatively between 2023 and 2050, Canadian oil sands sector capex is projected at nearly US$327.8 billion.

Source: Derived from the Rystad Energy UCube, based on $60 USD per barrel price scenario
Notes
This CEC Fact Sheet was compiled by Lennie Kaplan at the Canadian Energy Centre (www.canadianenergycentre.ca). The author and the Canadian Energy Centre would like to thank and acknowledge the assistance of two anonymous reviewers in reviewing the data and research for this Fact Sheet. The written content in this report was prepared by the Canadian Energy Centre (CEC) and does not represent the views of Rystad Energy.
References (All links live as of September 19, 2023)
Rystad Energy. (2023). Upstream Solution. <https://bit.ly/3veaMIV>.
Alberta
Enbridge CEO says ‘there’s a good reason’ for Alberta to champion new oil pipeline

Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel. The company’s extensive pipeline network transports about 30 per cent of the oil produced in North America and nearly 20 per cent of the natural gas consumed in the United States. Photo courtesy Enbridge
From the Canadian Energy Centre
B.C. tanker ban an example of federal rules that have to change
The CEO of North America’s largest pipeline operator says Alberta’s move to champion a new oil pipeline to B.C.’s north coast makes sense.
“There’s a good reason the Alberta government has become proponent of a pipeline to the north coast of B.C.,” Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel told the Empire Club of Canada in Toronto the day after Alberta’s announcement.
“The previous [federal] government’s tanker ban effectively makes that export pipeline illegal. No company would build a pipeline to nowhere.”
It’s a big lost opportunity. With short shipping times to Asia, where oil demand is growing, ports on B.C.’s north coast offer a strong business case for Canadian exports. But only if tankers are allowed.
A new pipeline could generate economic benefits across Canada and, under Alberta’s plan, drive economic reconciliation with Indigenous communities.
Ebel said the tanker ban is an example of how policies have to change to allow Canada to maximize its economic potential.
Repealing the legislation is at the top of the list of needed changes Ebel and 94 other energy CEOs sent in a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney in mid-September.
The federal government’s commitment to the tanker ban under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was a key factor in the cancellation of Enbridge’s Northern Gateway pipeline.
That project was originally targeted to go into service around 2016, with capacity to ship 525,000 barrels per day of Canadian oil to Asia.
“We have tried to build nation-building pipelines, and we have the scars to prove it. Five hundred million scars, to be quite honest,” Ebel said, referencing investment the company and its shareholders made advancing the project.
“Those are pensioners and retail investors and employees that took on that risk, and it was difficult,” he said.
For an industry proponent to step up to lead a new Canadian oil export pipeline, it would likely require “overwhelming government support and regulatory overhaul,” BMO Capital Markets said earlier this year.
Energy companies want to build in Canada, Ebel said.
“The energy sector is ready to invest, ready to partner, partner with Indigenous nations and deliver for the country,” he said.
“None of us is calling for weaker environmental oversight. Instead, we are urging government to adopt smarter, clearer, faster processes so that we can attract investment, take risks and build for tomorrow.”
This is the time for Canadians “to remind ourselves we should be the best at this,” Ebel said.
“We should lead the way and show the world how it’s done: wisely, responsibly, efficiently and effectively.”
With input from a technical advisory group that includes pipeline leaders and Indigenous relations experts, Alberta will undertake pre-feasibility work to identify the pipeline’s potential route and size, estimate costs, and begin early Indigenous engagement and partnership efforts.
The province aims to submit an application to the Federal Major Projects Office by spring 2026.
Alberta
‘Visionary’ Yellowhead Pipeline poised to launch Alberta into the future

From the Canadian Energy Centre
Heartland leaders welcome proposed new natural gas connector
As a lifelong farmer, entrepreneur and community leader, Alanna Hnatiw knows first-hand the crucial role energy plays in a strong and diverse economy.
The mayor of Sturgeon County, a sprawling rural municipality northeast of Edmonton, Hnatiw has spent much of the last decade working to protect its agricultural roots while building new industries that support the jobs and services families and businesses rely on every day.
Hnatiw says there is widespread appreciation among the county’s 20,000 residents for the opportunities afforded by the province’s oil and gas resources. That’s why she joined other leaders in Alberta’s Industrial Heartland region to applaud a major new natural gas pipeline planned for the area.
“Natural gas is an integral to all the industrial operations in Sturgeon County and the surrounding area. It goes beyond just burning it to turn turbines, it is the feedstock for all kinds of value-added processing. From fertilizer and plastics to petrochemicals and hydrogen, natural gas is the lynchpin for us into the future,” she said.
Filling growing demand
Hnatiw is one of more than a dozen community and industry leaders who sent letters of support to the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) last year endorsing ATCO Energy Systems’ proposed Yellowhead Pipeline project.
The project achieved a significant milestone in August when the AUC approved ATCO’s application determining the pipeline is needed.
The largest infrastructure investment in the company’s history, the 230-kilometre pipeline from Peers to Fort Saskatchewan will transport more than 1.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day when operational in late 2027.
For context, Alberta produced about 11 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas in 2024, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator.
The Yellowhead Pipeline will boost deliveries to the greater Edmonton area as demand continues to grow for power generation, manufacturing, petrochemical processing and residential use.
Industrial customers have reserved 90 per cent of the pipeline’s capacity to meet their future needs.
This includes Dow Chemical, which plans to build an $8.9-billion net-zero ethylene processing facility in Fort Saskatchewan, Heidelberg Materials’ Edmonton facility that aims to be the world’s first full-scale cement plant equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and McCain Foods, which requires more natural gas for a planned expansion of its French fry factory in Coaldale.
Prosperity driver
Edmonton Global CEO Malcolm Bruce described the Yellowhead Pipeline as a “visionary” infrastructure project in his letter of support to the AUC.
“The [project] will create jobs, enable billions in new investment and drive Alberta’s hydrogen roadmap and natural gas vision and strategy.”
ATCO’s projections show the pipeline will generate substantial economic benefits. The company estimates that during construction, it will support 12,000 jobs and contribute $1.6 billion per year to Alberta’s economy.
Once in operation, the pipeline is expected to support 23,700 jobs per year and add $3.9 billion annually to Alberta’s GDP.
For Sturgeon County, the project also provides much-needed certainty that natural gas will be available for the $30 billion in new industrial investments the region is hoping to attract in the coming years.
Future plans
The municipality is already home to major operations including the NWR Sturgeon Refinery and Nutrien fertilizer plant, both of which capture carbon dioxide emissions that are transported through the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line for deep underground storage near Clive, Alberta.
Hnatiw said future development may include hydrogen production with CCS, petrochemical processing, gas-fired power plants and large-scale data centres.
“With our operations running near capacity right now, this new pipeline helps alleviate the uncertainty around gas supplies for industrial developers,” Hnatiw said.
The county’s industrial goals are inextricably tied to ensuring its farming sector continues to flourish, she said.
“Eighty per cent of our land base is agricultural, but it only accounts for one per cent of our budget as far as taxes go, so we need our industrial residents to support our rural way of life,” she said.
“We don’t want people to have to leave our community to make a living. We want a future that is full of opportunity, and one that is also sustainable for the families that produce our food, our fuel, and all the other value-added products we can provide.”
ATCO’s next step is to file for AUC approval to build the pipeline later this year. The company expects construction to begin in 2026.
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