Ottawa’s Regulatory Assault on the Extraction Sector and Its Impact on Investment

Business investment is a foundational requirement for a prosperous economy. It provides the resources to establish new companies, expand existing ones, and invest in new factories, machinery, and technologies. Business investment in Canada has declined markedly for over a decade. It is a major reason why Canadian living standards are stagnating in absolute terms and declining relative to many peer countries, particularly the United States.1

One factor behind declining business investment is the heavy regulatory burden imposed by the current federal government on the extraction sector, which includes: mining, quarrying, and oil and gas. Since 1990, this sector averaged 17.3 percent of total non-residential business investment, and reached as high as 28.7 percent of the total in 2013.2

The federal government has been particularly critical of the oil and gas sector. As an example of such sentiment, in a 2017 speech Prime Minister Trudeau said it would take time to “phase out” the oil sands, indicating the long-term goal of the federal government to eliminate the fossil fuel industry (Muzyka, 2017). The prime minister’s comments were followed by a number of new regulations that directly or indirectly targeted the oil and gas sector:

• In 2019, Bill C-69 amended and introduced federal acts to overhaul the governmental review process for approving major infrastructure projects (Parliament of Canada, 2018). The changes were heavily criticized for prolonging the already lengthy approval process, increasing uncertainty, and further politicizing the process (Green, 2019).

• In 2019, Bill C-48 changed regulations for vessels transporting oil to and from ports on British Columbia’s northern coast, effectively banning such shipments and thus limiting the ability of Canadian firms to export (Parliament of Canada, 2019).

• Indications from the federal government that a mandatory hard cap on GHG emissions would eventually be introduced for the oil and gas sector. In 2023, such a cap was introduced (Kane and Orland, 2023), excluding other GHG emitting sectors of the economy (Watson, 2022).

• In early 2023, the government announced new fuel regulations, which will further increase the cost of fuels beyond the carbon tax (ECCC, 2023).

• In late 2023, with limited consultation with industry or the provinces, the Trudeau government announced major new regulations for methane emissions in the oil and gas sector, which will almost inevitably raise costs and curtail production (Tasker, 2016).

The growing regulatory burden has a number of implications that impede or even prohibit oil and gas investment, by increasing costs and uncertainty, making it less attractive to invest in Canada. Both a 2022 survey of mining companies and a 2023 survey of petroleum companies identified the same three risks as inhibiting investment in Canadian provinces—uncertainty over disputed land claims, protected areas, and environmental regulations.3

It is also important to recognize that the Trudeau government introduced a carbon tax in 2016, which conceptually should replace regulations related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as those listed previously rather than be an additional policy lever used to manage GHG emissions.4

The regulations discussed above, as well as direct decisions by the federal government had tangible effects on the oil and gas sector:

• In late 2016, the Northern Gateway pipeline running from northern Alberta to Kitimat, British Columbia was cancelled by the Trudeau government, further limiting the ability of firms in Alberta to get their products to export markets (Tasker, 2016).

• In 2017, TransCanada Corp. cancelled its $15.7 billion Energy East pipeline, which would have transported oil from Alberta to Saint John, New Brunswick. The project was cancelled in large measure due to changes in national policy regarding the approval of large infrastructure projects (Canadian Press, 2017).

• While the Trans Mountain pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby, BC was approved, Kinder Morgan exited the project in 2018 due to uncertainties and questions about the economics of the project, forcing the Trudeau government to take the ownership. The cost of the project has since increased by more than four times the original estimate to $30.9 billion (Globe and Mail Editorial Board, 2023).

• In 2019, US-based Devon Energy announced plans to exit Canada’s oilsands to pursue more profitable opportunities in the United States (Healing, 2019).

• In 2020, Teck Resources abandoned its $20 billion Frontier oilsands mine in Alberta because of increasing regulatory uncertainty (Connolly, 2020).

• In 2020, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway decided not to invest $4 billion in Saguenay LNG, a liquified natural gas plant and pipeline, due to political and regulatory risks (CBC News, 2020).

The divestitures above are not an exhaustive list. Other companies including Norwegian Equinor (formerly Statoil), France’s TotalEnergies SE (formerly Total SA), US-based Murphy Oil, and ConocoPhillips have all reduced their investments in Canada’s oil and gas sector.

The government’s mounting regulations and hostilities towards the oil and gas sector did not go unnoticed outside of Canada. A 2018 article in The Economist listed the many failures to develop pipeline infrastructure in Canada to bring much-demanded oil and gas to market. Indeed, the piece called it a “three-ring circus” that risked “alienating foreign investors who are already pulling back from Canada” (Economist, 2018).

It is first important to acknowledge the overall decline in business investment in Canada since 2014. Overall, total non-residential business investment (inflation-adjusted) declined by 7.3 percent between 2014 and 2022.5, 6

The decline in business investment in the extractive sector (mining, quarrying, and oil and gas) is even more pronounced. Since 2014, business investment excluding residential structures and adjusted for inflation has declined from $101.9 billion to $49.7 billion in 2022, a reduction of 51.2 percent (figure 1).7

A similar decline in business investment of 52.1 percent is observed for conventional oil and gas, falling from $46.6 billion in 2014 to $22.3 billion in 2022 (inflation-adjusted) (figure 1). In percentage terms the decline in non-conventional oil extraction was even larger at 71.2 percent, falling from $37.3 billion in 2014 to $10.7 billion in 2022.8

Simply put, the declines in the extraction sector are larger than the total decline in overall non-residential business
investment between 2014 and 2022, indicating the magnitude of the overall effect of the decline in business investment in this sector.

The importance of business investment to the health of an economy and the rising living standards of citizens cannot be overstated. One of the major challenges facing Canadian prosperity are regulatory barriers, particularly in the oil and gas sector.

In that light, much of the regulatory burden added over the last eight years to the oil and gas sector should simply be eliminated. In some ways this is already being forced on the federal government through court decisions. For instance, in October of 2023, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that parts of Bill C-69 were unconstitutional as they infringed on areas of exclusive provincial jurisdiction, requiring revisions to the Act (Dryden, 2023).

A careful and clear analysis is needed of the costs and benefits of the regulatory measures imposed on the oil and gas sector, including Bill C-48, the recent methane regulations, and the emissions cap. Based on this analysis, the regulatory measures should be adjusted to help improve the ability of Canada’s energy sector to attract and retain investment.

Author:

Kenneth P. Green

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

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Alberta

Premier Danielle Smith In Washington for Trump Inauguration Promoting a New Era of Partnership with the U.S.

Published on January 19, 2025

Government of Alberta

Premier Smith at dinner with Florida Republican Senator Rick Scott. Facebook

Premier Danielle Smith will travel to Washington, D.C. to solidify Alberta as the answer to North American energy, food and data security during the week of President-elect Trump’s inauguration.

While in the U.S. capital from Jan. 18 to 23, Premier Smith will meet with key decision makers, governors, members of Congress and private sector leaders. Alberta’s on-the-ground presence will help build relationships and start critical conversations that will lay the groundwork for collaboration with the new U.S. administration and reap benefits for Albertans, Canadians and Americans.

Premier Smith will champion Alberta as the largest exporter of oil and gas to the U.S. and highlight the unprecedented opportunity that lies ahead for Alberta to work collaboratively with the new administration to develop secure supply chains and strengthen energy security for the U.S. and Canada. Alberta’s approximately USD $100 billion in energy exports to the U.S. are upgraded into USD $300 billion in value-added products by American workers at refineries in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan and other states, and then sold by American companies all over the world.

“Given the serious threats of tariffs, it is imperative that we do everything we can to engage directly with the incoming administration, members of Congress and key officials to emphasize Alberta’s critical role in North American energy security and economic prosperity. In all my meetings and events in Washington, D.C. I will work to ensure Alberta is recognized as a partner of choice for establishing North American energy security, to reinforce our century-long friendship and to further solidify our trade relationship that greatly benefits both Americans and Canadians.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

This visit will build on the Premier’s previous discussions with the President-elect, key members of his cabinet and other elected officials. With the ongoing threat of tariffs on all Canadian products, including those from Alberta’s leading industries, meeting with officials face-to-face is crucial. This work is a continuation of the efforts that were discussed by all Premiers to do all they could to build bridges with the U.S.

Conversations will also focus on highlighting the deep economic ties that underpin our economies and how they contribute to creating jobs and prosperity on both sides of the border in industries like energy, agriculture, forestry, manufacturing and technology.

Premier Smith will travel with five staff members. Mission expenses will be posted on the travel and expense disclosure page.

Quick facts

The U.S. is Alberta’s largest trading partner and Alberta is the second-largest provincial exporter to the U.S.
In 2023, Alberta’s exports to the U.S. totalled USD $115.58 billion, accounting for about 90 per cent of total provincial exports in 2023.
- Energy products accounted for about USD $94.4 billion, or 82 per cent, of the province’s exports to the U.S.
- Other important export sectors included plastics, forestry, meat and machinery.
Alberta’s government has also launched the Alberta is the Answer campaign, a targeted advertisement campaign focused on reaching key decision makers in the U.S. and amplifying Alberta’s message on the energy partnership it has with the U.S. and how this partnership can grow.

Itinerary for Premier Smith*

Jan. 18	Travel to Washington, D.C. Engage with key U.S. decision makers at an event hosted by Florida.
Jan. 19	Meet with energy sector leaders. Engage with key U.S. decision makers at an event hosted by the Texas State Society.
Jan. 20	Attend the presidential inauguration on Capitol Hill. Participate in the Inauguration Day event at the Canadian Embassy. Engage with key U.S. decision makers and government officials at a Republican Governors’ Association event and evening reception.
Jan. 21	Meetings with U.S. governors and industry leaders. Participate in a round table discussion with thought leaders.
Jan. 22	Meetings with key U.S. decision makers and elected officials. Participate in a networking event focused on solutions for responsible energy development.
Jan. 23	Travel to Alberta.

Why Alberta?

Alberta is one of the most reliable and secure energy partners for the U.S.

Alberta and the U.S. share the same values – and a border. Alberta is the friendly, freedom-loving democracy right next door.

Alberta has the fourth largest oil reserves on earth, and significant natural gas resources. Alberta already accounts for 56% of all oil imports to the U.S. – twice as much as Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Iraq combined – which is helping to drive job creation and prosperity on both sides of the border. The U.S. must import crude oil in order to refine it and produce light oil, which they export around the world, and Alberta believes that we are a far better trading partner than Iran, Iraq, or Venezuela.

Alberta is also the largest producer of natural gas in Canada and remains positioned to support the U.S. in filling their domestic supply gaps, currently accounting for nearly 60% of U.S. total annual natural gas imports. The reliability and security of those imports cannot be understated.

Furthermore, Alberta has a stronger environmental record, stronger democratic institutions and stronger human rights standards than other energy producers.

This is a win-win relationship. Alberta’s approximately U.S. $100 billion in energy exports to the U.S. is upgraded into U.S. $300 billion in value-added products by American workers at refineries in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and other states, and then sold by American companies all over the world.

More than 450,000 kilometres of pipelines already link Canada and the U.S. – enough to circle the Earth 11 times. The province also has ambitions to double its oil production by 2050, and increase its pipeline capacity significantly. Enabling Alberta to export even more crude oil to the U.S. This will help the U.S. achieve global energy dominance and increase energy affordability for Americans.

Alberta is a global leader in responsible oil and gas production

Alberta is the top foreign supplier of energy products to the United States. Alberta has been a global leader in responsible energy production for decades, leveraging cutting-edge technologies that allow the province to continue increasing production while protecting our air, water, and land for generations to come.

Alberta is unapologetic in its goal to increase oil and gas production to meet the world’s basic needs and maintain the quality of life we all enjoy in North America. The province is doing so responsibly and will continue to lead the way with new technologies that support this ambition.

Reliable Alberta energy will fuel the technologies of the future

As the world becomes increasingly electrified, the need for reliable energy is growing and Alberta has the resources to meet that demand.

The province is home to world-class energy industry leaders with the expertise developers are looking for to find innovative solutions to meet their energy needs. Coupled with Alberta’s competitive power market structure, natural incentives for cost-savings and a government committed to reducing red tape, Alberta is a premier destination for AI data centres.

Alberta’s AI data centre strategy arose from a pressing need for AI data centres in North America – a need that is in fact global. With the rapid growth of AI and machine learning, global demand for data centre capacity is expected to triple by 2031.

Alberta is a trusted and safe partner of the U.S. that has the capacity and resources to support these data centres and ensure that U.S. companies remain on the forefront of AI technology and that the U.S. maintains its technology dominance.

Business

Our energy policies have made us more vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs

Published on January 19, 2025

Todayville

From the Fraser Institute

By Elmira Aliakbari and Jason Clemens

As Donald Trump, who will be sworn in as president on Monday, threatens to impose tariffs on Canadian exports including oil and natural gas, the calls from some Canadian politicians and analysts for greater energy trade diversification grow louder. However, these calls highlight a hard truth—Canada has repeatedly foregone opportunities to reduce our dependence on the United States by cancelling already approved pipelines and failing to approve new pipeline and LNG projects that could have increased our access to global markets.

The U.S. is not just Canada’s largest energy customer—it’s nearly our only customer. In 2023, 97 per cent of crude oil exports and virtually all natural gas exports were sent south of the border. This dependence on the U.S. for exports leaves Canadian producers and the Canadian economy exposed to policy shifts in Washington and even state capitals.

Consider Energy East, a pipeline proposed by TransCanada (now TC Energy) to transport oil from Alberta and Saskatchewan to refineries and export terminals in Atlantic Canada. The pipeline would have reduced Atlantic Canada’s reliance on imported oil and opened export markets for Canadian oil to Europe.

However, in 2017 the Trudeau government introduced new criteria for evaluating and approving major pipeline projects, and for the first time assessments included not only the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from constructing the pipeline but also emissions from producing and using the oil it would transport. Later that year, TransCanada suspended its application for the project, effectively cancelling it. The CEO of TransCanada blamed “changed circumstances” but many observers recognized it was a combination of the new regulations and opposition from Quebec, particularly the City of Montreal. Consequently, the refineries in Atlantic Canada continue to rely on imported oil.

A year earlier in 2016, the Trudeau government cancelled the already-approved Northern Gateway pipeline, which would have connected Alberta oil production with the west coast and created significant export opportunities to Asian markets.

Canada is even more dependent on the U.S. for natural gas exports than oil exports. In 2023, Canada exported approximately 84 billion cubic metres of natural gas—all to the U.S.—via 39 pipelines, again leaving producers in Canada vulnerable to U.S. policy changes.

Meanwhile, Canada currently has no operational infrastructure for exporting liquified natural gas (LNG). While LNG Canada, the country’s first LNG export terminal, is expected to become operational this year in British Columbia, it’s long overdue.

Indeed, several energy companies have cancelled or delayed high-profile LNG projects in Canada due largely to onerous regulations that make approvals uncertain or even unlikely, including the $36 billion Pacific NorthWest LNG project in 2017, the $9 billion Énergie Saguenay LNG project in 2020, Kitimat LNG in 2021 and East Coast Canada LNG in 2023.

This all adds up to a missed opportunity, as global demand for LNG increases. If governments in Canada allowed or even facilitated more development of LNG facilities, Canadian companies could supply high-demand regions such as Asia and Europe. Indeed, during Europe’s 2022 energy crisis, Germany and several other countries turned to Canada for reliable LNG supply, but the Trudeau government rejected the requests.

The contrast with the U.S. is stark. Since 2011, 18 LNG export facilities have been proposed in Canada but only one—LNG Canada Phase 1—is nearing completion, more than 12 years after it was announced. Meanwhile, as of January 2025, the U.S. has built eight LNG export terminals and approved 20 more, securing its position as a global LNG leader.

Years of inaction and regulatory roadblocks have left Canadian energy producers overly dependent on a single trading partner and vulnerable to shifting U.S. policies. The looming threat of tariffs should be a wake-up call. To secure its energy future, Canada must address the regulatory barriers that have long hindered progress and prioritize the development of infrastructure to connect our energy resources to global markets.