Business
Ottawa’s “Net Zero” emission-reduction plan will cost Canadian workers $8,000 annually by 2050
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From the Fraser Institute
Ross McKitrick
Canada’s Path to Net Zero by 2050: Darkness at the End of the Tunnel
The federal government’s plan to achieve “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions will result in 254,000 fewer jobs and cost workers $8,000 in lower wages by 2050, all while failing to meet the government’s own emission-reduction target, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, nonpartisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“Ottawa’s emission-reduction plan will significantly hurt Canada’s economy and cost workers money and jobs, but it won’t achieve the target they’ve set because it is infeasible,” said Ross McKitrick, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Canada’s Path to Net Zero by 2050: Darkness at the End of the Tunnel.
The government’s Net Zero by 2050 emission-reduction plan includes: the federal carbon tax, clean fuel standards, and various other GHG-related regulations, such as energy efficiency requirements for buildings, fertilizer restrictions on farms, and electric vehicle mandates.
By 2050, these policies will have imposed significant costs on the Canadian economy and on workers.
For example:
• Canada’s economy will be 6.2 per cent smaller in 2050 than it would have been without these policies.
• Workers will make $8,000 less annually.
• And there will be 254,000 fewer jobs.
The study also shows that even a carbon tax of $1,200 per tonne (about $2.70 per litre of gas) would not get emissions to zero. Crucially, the study finds that the economically harmful policies can’t achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and will only reduce GHG emissions by an estimated 70 per cent of the government’s target.
“Despite political rhetoric, Ottawa’s emission-reduction policies will impose enormous costs without even meeting the government’s target,” McKitrick said.
“Especially as the US moves aggressively to unleash its energy sector, Canadian policymakers need to rethink the damage these policies will inflict on Canadians and change course.”
- The Government of Canada has committed to going beyond the Paris target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40 percent below 2005 levels as of 2030 and now intends to achieve net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as of 2050. This study provides an outlook through 2050 of Canada’s path to net zero by answering two questions: will the Government of Canada’s current Emission Reduction Plan (ERP) get us to net zero by 2050, and if not, is it feasible for any policy to get us there?
- First, a simulation of the ERP extended to 2050 results in emissions falling by approximately 70 percent relative to where they would be otherwise, but still falling short of net zero. Moreover, the economic costs are significant: real GDP declines by seven percent, income per worker drops by six percent, 250,000 jobs are lost, and the annual cost per worker exceeds $8,000.
- Second, the study explores whether a sharply rising carbon tax alone could achieve net zero. At $400 per tonne, emissions decrease by 68 percent, but tripling the carbon tax to $1,200 per tonne achieves only an additional 6 percent reduction. At this level, the economic impacts are severe: GDP would shrink by 18 percent, and incomes per worker would fall by 17 percent, compared with the baseline scenario.
- The conclusion is clear: Without transformative abatement technologies, Canada is unlikely to reach net zero by 2050. Even the most efficient policies impose unsustainable costs, making them unlikely to gain public support.
Ross McKitrick
Business
Carney’s carbon madness
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Dan McTeague
Well, we are in quite the pickle.
In nine plus years as prime minister, Justin Trudeau has waged a multi-front war on the consumption and production of hydrocarbon energy, and, with that, on our economy, our quality of life, and our cost of living.
Trudeau zealously pursued and implemented anti-energy policies, most infamously the consumer Carbon Tax, but let’s not forget his so-called ”Clean Fuel” regulations; his Industrial Carbon Tax; his proposed emissions caps; his Electric Vehicle subsidies and mandates; Bill C-59, which bans businesses from touting the environmental positives of their work if it doesn’t meet a government-approved standard; and various other pieces of legislation which make the construction of new pipelines nearly impossible and significantly reduces our ability to sell our oil and gas overseas.
Every one of these policies can be traced back to the pernicious Net Zero ideology which informs them, and in which Trudeau and his bosom buddies — Gerald Butts, Steven Guilbeault, Mark Carney, etc — remain true believers.
And yet, despite those policies contributing to his party’s collapsing poll numbers and Trudeau’s unceremonious ouster, the Liberals are on the verge of naming as his replacement Mark Carney, one of the very Trudeau consiglieri who got us into this mess in the first place!
Now, Carney is currently doing everything in his power to downplay and dance around those aspects of his career which voters might find objectionable. He’s making quite a habit of it, in fact. And on the energy file, he’s being especially misleading, walking back his long-time support of the Carbon Tax — he’s said it has “served a purpose up until now” — and claiming that he intends to repeal it, while finding other ways to “make polluters pay.”
This is nonsense. In fact, Carney is a Carbon Tax superfan, and, if you listen to him closely, his actual critique of the Trudeau tax isn’t that it has made it more expensive to heat our homes, gas up our cars, and pay for our groceries (which it has.) It’s that it is too visible to voters. His vow to “make polluters pay” means, in fact, that he intends to “beef up” Trudeau’s less discussed Industrial Carbon Tax, targeting businesses, which will ultimately pass the cost down to consumers.
He’s even discussed enacting a Carbon tariff, which would apply to trade with countries which don’t adopt the onerous Net Zero policies which he wants to force on Canada.
That’s just who Mark Carney is.
And, unfortunately, Donald Trump’s tariff threats have provoked a “rally round the flag” sentiment, enabling the Liberals to close the polling gap with the Conservatives, with some polls currently showing them neck-and-neck. Which is to say, there is a possibility that, whenever we get around to having an election, anti-American animus could keep the Liberals in power, and propel Carney to the top job in our government.
This is, in a word, madness.
Let us not forget that it was the Liberals’ policies — especially their assault on our “golden goose,” the natural resource sector — which left us in such a precarious fiscal state that Trudeau felt the need to fly to Mar-a-Lago and tell the newly elected president that a tariff would “kill” our economy. That’s what provoked Trump’s “51st state” crack in the first place.
Access to U.S. markets will always be important for Canadian prosperity — they, by leaps and bounds, are our largest trading partner, after all — but without the Net Zero nonsense, we could have been an energy superpower, providing an alternative source of oil and natural gas for those countries leary about relying for energy on less-environmentally conscious, human-rights-abusing petrostates. We could have filled the void created by Russia, when they made themselves a pariah state in Europe by invading Ukraine.
In short, we might have been set up to negotiate with the Trump Administration from a position of strength. Instead, we’re proposing to double-down on Net Zero, pledging allegiance to a program which will make us less competitive and more likely to be steamrolled by major powers, including the U.S. but also (and less frequently mentioned) China.
Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face! And all in the name of nationalism.
Here’s hoping we wise up and change course while there’s still time. Because, in the words of America’s greatest philosopher, Yogi Berra, “It’s getting late early.”
Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.
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Business
Tariffs by Tuesday: Trump Says There Is ‘No Room Left’ For Any Negotiations On Postponing Tariffs On Mexico, Canada
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From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By Nicole Silverio
President Donald Trump said Monday that there is “no room left” for any negotiations on postponing tariffs on Mexico, Canada or China in response to their handling of the immigration and fentanyl crisis.
Trump initially planned to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China over its role in allowing illegal immigration and fentanyl to pour into the U.S. in record numbers. After postponing these tariffs for a month after Mexico and Canada caved to his requests, the president said he has fully made up his mind to officially impose these tariffs this upcoming Tuesday.
“No room left for Mexico or for Canada. No, the tariffs [are] all set, they go into effect tomorrow,” Trump said. “And just so you understand, vast amounts of fentanyl have poured into our country from Mexico and as you know, also from China where it goes to Mexico and goes to Canada and China also had an additional 10 [percent], so it’s 10 + 10, and it comes in from Canada and it comes in from Mexico and that’s a very important thing to say.”
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WATCH:
Trump postponed the tariffs on Feb. 3 after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau caved to his requests by increasing their efforts to tackle illegal immigration and fentanyl. Sheinbaum deployed 10,000 National Guard soldiers to the U.S.-Mexico border while Trudeau invested $1.3 billion to crackdown on illegal migration and appointed a “Fentanyl Czar” to oversee a $200 million effort against the drug.
The president announced in a Feb. 27 Truth Social post that he planned to double the tariffs on China to 20% and move forward with the tariffs on Mexico and Canada over the “very high and unacceptable levels” of drugs pouring into the U.S.
“We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” Trump said. “China will likewise be charged an additional 10% Tariff on that date. The April Second Reciprocal Tariff date will remain in full force and effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”
These three countries are being slapped with tariffs as the U.S. suffers a fentanyl epidemic, with over 21,000 pounds of the deadly drug being seized at the southern border in the fiscal year 2024, according to Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Border agents have seized over 5,400 pounds in the 2025 fiscal year thus far.
At the U.S.-Canadian border, officials encountered over 11,000 pounds of drugs in the 2024 fiscal year and over 3,200 pounds have so far been seized in the 2025 fiscal year, according to CBP data. Over 60,000 pounds and 55,000 pounds of drugs were seized in the 2022 and 2023 fiscal years.
U.S. border officials also encountered over 8.5 million migrants at the southern border during the four fiscal years of former President Joe Biden’s administration. Border crossings at the northern border skyrocketed with over 198,000 encounters and nearly 19,000 arrests occurring in the 2024 fiscal year.
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