Alberta
Ottawa’s emissions policies will impose huge costs on Albertans
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill and Elmira Aliakbari
The path Trudeau is forcing us down leads to a much poorer economy (completely cratering Canada’s energy industry while making everything more expensive) and negative environmental benefit (that’s right, it’s worse as developing nations use the energy that’s cheapest). So maybe it’s time to scrap the tax.
The federal NDP recently ended its support for the consumer carbon tax citing its significant cost to everyday Canadians. But Canada’s costly climate change policies extend beyond the carbon tax. Indeed, the Trudeau government has introduced numerous policies in an attempt to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which impose major costs on Albertans.
The consumer carbon tax is perhaps the most widely known GHG reduction policy, which places a price on carbon (currently at $80 per tonne) and is set to rise to $170 per tonne by 2030. However, the Trudeau government has also imposed other regulations and mandates, including clean fuel regulations, electric vehicle mandates, the phase-out of coal-based electrical generation and building efficiency mandates.
The costs? According to a recent study, these GHG policies will shrink the Alberta economy (as measured by GDP) by an estimated 6.0 per cent by 2030. And employment in the province is expected to decline by 0.9 per cent. To put these figures into perspective, a 6.0 per cent contraction in 2024 would have shrunk the provincial economy by $27.7 billion, while a 0.9 per cent decrease in employment would have meant a loss of approximately 22,837 jobs (based on data for August 2024).
While these policies are expected to reduce GHG emissions, they fall short of meeting the government’s national GHG reduction targets. As a result, further economic pain will be required if the federal government implements additional measures to further reduce GHGs emissions.
These findings echo other studies that measure the effects of various climate change policies. According to a report by Deloitte, for instance, Trudeau’s policy to cap GHG emissions in the oil and gas sector (to 35 to 38 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030) will lead to less investment, nearly 70,000 fewer jobs, and a 4.5 per cent decrease in economic output (i.e. GDP) among the provinces by 2040. Unsurprisingly, Alberta is projected to be the hardest hit province.
And here’s the kicker—these huge economic costs come with little to no actual environmental benefit. Even if Canada shut down its entire oil and gas sector by 2030, thus eliminating all GHG emissions from the sector, the resulting reduction would equal four-tenths of 1 per cent of global emissions, which would have an undetectable impact on the climate. Meanwhile, as demand for fossil fuels continues to increase, constraining oil and gas production and exports in Canada merely shifts production to other countries, which have lower environmental and human rights standards such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
The Trudeau government’s climate change regulations are imposing huge costs on Albertans with little to no actual environmental benefit. While support for some of these policies—particularly the consumer carbon tax—is waning, federal policymakers should seriously rethink numerous other regulations.
Authors:
As so often happens these days the headlines from major news outlets all look like they were written by the same people. All the major news outlets repeated the government talking point that immigration would be reduced significantly. In his news release, Immigration Minister Marc Miller spoke of “controlled targets” and even “marginal” declines in Canada’s population. Minister Miller made it sound like the feds are pulling way back on the number of immigrants being allowed into the country.
A few hours later, Premier Danielle Smith explained how Alberta sees things. According to Premier Smith, immigrants will still be pouring into the country at near record levels. Smith says this new immigration plan will offer almost no relief whatsoever to provinces buckling under the pressure of so many newcomers.
Premier Smith is right. When you take out all the adjectives and the self back-patting, the 2025 – 2027 Immigration Levels Plan shows the number of new immigrants will still hover near record levels.
From the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
The levels plan includes controlled targets for temporary residents, specifically international students and foreign workers, as well as for permanent residents.
We are:
- reducing from 500,000 permanent residents to 395,000 in 2025
- reducing from 500,000 permanent residents to 380,000 in 2026
- setting a target of 365,000 permanent residents in 2027
Quick facts:
- Canada’s population has grown in recent years, reaching 41 million in April 2024. Immigration accounted for almost 98% of this growth in 2023, 60% of which can be attributed to temporary residents.
- Francophone immigration will represent
- 8.5% in 2025
- 9.5% in 2026
- 10% in 2027
The Levels Plan also supports efforts to reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026. Canada’s temporary population will decrease over the next few years as significantly more temporary residents will transition to being permanent residents or leave Canada compared to new ones arriving. Specifically, compared to each previous year, we will see Canada’s temporary population decline by
- 445,901 in 2025
- 445,662 in 2026
- a modest increase of 17,439 in 2027
It’s interesting how the feds explain the situation with “temporary residents”. This group includes foreign students and temporary workers. Most Canadians would probably be shocked to know just how many people are “temporarily” here.
Minister Miller says this population will decline by 445,901 people in 2025. What he leaves out is that this still allows for just over 2,000,000 foreign students and temporary workers! (5% of 41,000,000 Canadians is 2,050,000)
It’s also very interesting that in the explanation for how the feds plan to cut the number of temporary residents down from about 2.6 million to just over 2 million, is by recognizing that many of the temporary residents will transition to being permanent residents. It’s not clear how that will reduce the number of people in the country. I guess we’ll have to see how that all turns out.
Meanwhile Alberta Premier Danelle Smith and Minister of Immigration and Multiculturalism Muhammad Yaseen issued this joint statement on today’s federal government immigration announcement:
“Alberta has a long history of welcoming newcomers, and we plan to maintain that reputation.
“However, the federal government’s reckless and irresponsible open-border immigration policies, permitting almost 2 million newcomers to enter Canada last year alone, have led to unsustainable financial pressures on all provinces.
“With the cost of food, energy, housing and everything else in this country increasing, and with tens of thousands of new people moving to Alberta monthly, our hospitals and schools are at or above capacity.
“As a province, we need a reprieve from this explosive population growth so we can catch up with these pressures. So do all provinces.
“The federal government’s plan to cut a mere 105,000 new permanent residents will not solve these pressures when they are bringing in almost 2 million additional people annually.
“We call on the government to cut the number of newcomers to Canada from almost 2 million to well under 500,000 annually until further notice.
“Ottawa’s priority should be on reducing the number of temporary foreign workers, international students and asylum seekers—not on reducing provincially selected economic migrants.”
Alberta
Alberta Bill of Rights amendments will allow individuals like Jordan Peterson to speak freely
Alberta’s government considers legislative changes to safeguard freedom of expression for regulated professionals.
In response to increasing concerns that regulated professional bodies may be going too far in limiting individual freedom of expression and imposing compulsory training beyond the scope of their professional practice, Alberta’s government is launching an engagement this fall that will include hearing directly from affected members.
As part of the province’s commitment to protecting the civil liberties of all Albertans, the government is considering legislative changes to clarify that professional regulatory bodies are limited to regulating members’ professional competence and behaviour. The engagement will ensure that professional regulatory bodies uphold the rights and freedoms of their members, and that Albertans can share their experiences and opinions.
“Freedom of expression is a bedrock in a democratic society. We’re committed to standing up for Albertans’ freedom and that includes ensuring Albertans are not coerced into self-censorship because of threats from their professional regulated bodies. Organizations that regulate professionals must strike a balance that upholds competence and ethics without restricting members’ rights and freedoms and we are working to ensure that balance is met.”
“We have heard from professionals receiving complaints from regulators, and in some cases facing actual disciplinary action for expressing personal beliefs and opinions unrelated to their professional competencies. This situation could result in self-censorship and infringe on their ability to speak and express opinions freely. We are initiating this review to ensure members’ rights and freedoms are protected.”
Eleven ministries with regulated professions in scope for this review will collect information and engage with professional regulatory bodies and other relevant groups as needed to inform policy decision-making.
The review will be informed by input from professional regulatory bodies, regulated professionals and other organizations, associations or experts. These groups will be invited to share their views on whether regulatory oversight goes beyond professional competence and ethics in areas such as freedom of expression and opinion, training not related to professional competence, vexatious and bad faith complaints, third-party complaints and protection for those holding other roles in addition to their role as a regulated professional.
Quick facts
- Professional regulatory bodies protect the public interest by setting standards of competence and conduct for their members and disciplining those who fail to meet them.
- The right to freedom of expression is protected under Section 2(b) of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
- The review will include 118 regulated professional bodies under the mandates of 11 ministries.
- These 118 professions and trades are governed by 67 different regulatory bodies. This number includes some provincial government ministries that directly regulate professions.
- Each ministry did an inventory of the regulated professions under their mandates and determined which should be included in the review. Professions may be excluded from the review if:
- They are not self-regulating.
- Regulation for the profession is not yet in force.
- There is no regulatory body or means to handle public complaints or disciplinary action against any member.
- There is little or no regulatory role beyond certification.
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