Nutrien may slow potash ramp-up plans as earnings, sales down

CALGARY — The CEO of Canadian fertilizer giant Nutrien Ltd. said Thursday the company may consider slowing down its previously announced plan to ramp up potash production, in light of falling prices and lower sales volumes.

The comments come as the Saskatoon-based company — the world’s largest fertilizer producer — lowered its earnings guidance for the year to between $6.4 billion and $8.0 billion, down from a previously announced range of $8.4 billion to $10 billion.

The company’s net earnings for the third quarter were US$576 million, down 58 per cent from US$1.4 billion a year earlier, and its sales for the quarter ended March 31 were US$6.1 billion, down 20 per cent from US$7.7 billion a year earlier.

“Yes, we would consider slowing down. We’re really, as we talked about earlier this year, watching the market,” CEO Ken Seitz told analysts on a conference call to discuss the company’s disappointing first-quarter financial results.

“If we see that the market’s not there, then we’ll pace our capital accordingly.”

It has been a volatile period for Nutrien, which achieved record earnings in 2021 and then saw fertilizer prices spike in March of 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war shook up global agricultural markets and reduced supplies of fertilizer from Eastern Europe.

To meet increased global demand, Nutrien announced in June of last year a plan to ramp up potash production by 40 per cent compared with 2020 production levels — an increase of more than five million tonnes.

The company said it would achieve this by investing in expansions at its existing Saskatchewan mines, including the hiring of approximately 350 people.

But by the second half of 2022, Nutrien had suffered what it called a “historic” decline in the pace of its potash shipments. In North America and Brazil in particular, farmers appeared to be postponing fertilizer purchases in the face of high prices.

As a result, in February of this year, the company announced it would slightly delay its expansion plans, targeting 2026 instead of 2025 to reach its potash production target of 18 million tonnes.

While Seitz said Thursday the company is open to slowing its plans further, he said he remains bullish on the longer-term outlook for fertilizer. He said Nutrien anticipates increased global potash demand in the second half of the year as a result of lower-than-expected inventories and improved affordability for farmers compared with 2022.

He added that historically, periods of lower-than-normal demand have been followed by years of strong demand growth — and he expects that to happen again.

“The reality is again that we are in a market that’s growing,” Seitz said.

“We believe that’s going to carry on for the absolute foreseeable future — a two and a half to three per cent annual growth rate. New supply’s going to be required to meet that growing demand.”

Nutrien’s share price tumbled Thursday on the company’s first-quarter results, trading down almost five per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of mid-day.

The company’s diluted net earnings per share for the quarter were US$1.14, down 54 per cent from US$2.49 a year earlier.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 11, 2023.

Companies in this story: (TSX:NTR)

Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press

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Is There Any Canadian Province More Proud of their Premier Today…

Published on January 21, 2025

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Prior to Trumps inauguration event and announcement was made that Trump would not be imposing the 25% tariffs…

Which means, Canada seriously dodged a bullet here.

And while the Liberals will most likely frame this as, their success in showing, Bad Orange Man, that they’re tough and ready to burn down what is left of our economy, throwing Alberta under the bus, first…through a nuclear option…

Premier Smith rode this challenge out like the true champion we knew that she would be.

It’s hard to say if this was a legality matter in the grander scheme…or if the 25% tariffs would have truly been as big of an impact on the US…

One thing is clear, however…

Smith was ready to go to the tables with the Trump administration and opt for diplomacy over threats…which should be what we expect from our leaders.

And should these 25% tariffs have gone through…I’m more than sure a Plan B would have been brought out in civil conversations, over screeching rhetoric.

“She’s treasonous”, they screeched.

“She’s supporting her friends in Oil and Gas”, they relent.

“She should put Canada first”, they echo…

And let’s just address these…

Is Walmart beholden to Campbells soup? Fruit of the Loom? Kraft?

Or does Walmart sell products that helps keep their doors open?

Walmart is not beholden to any product…just like Premier Smith isn’t. We have 26% of our GDP – the largest portion – owed to Alberta O&G, something that we have a limited trade partner with, due to the Liberal – Anti-Alberta/Anti-O&G/Anti-Pipeline attitude that wants to spend us further in debt with unreliable and expensive “Renewables”.

What does Alberta get from renewables?

A higher cost for energy, in an affordability crisis, created by the same people who continue to push them…sounds like a terrible deal, for Albertans, and something a true leader would Not Favor.

When Walmart sits down to hash out a deal with Heinz, are they committing treason because they haven’t shown their allegiance to their own, ‘Great Value’ brand Ketchup?

No…other provinces have their own industries and resources, which they are free to continue developing independent of the federal government, as is suitable and supportive of their own economies…Alberta isn’t competing with them, nor Canada as a whole.

Alberta through industry and resource, actually supports Canada through a grand imbalance on “Equalization Payments”…

As do we through paying 50% more into the Canada Pension Plan, than we actually get out of the Canada Pension Plan…to the tune of a $334 Billion Dollars.

And as for this “Team Canada”, horseshit…

The title Premier of Alberta, should hold some clues as to who Premier Smith should be advocating for…as she is the Premier of Alberta and Not the Prime Minister, nor leader in the Liberal Party that has created this fiasco, to begin with.

Rail, as they may…other provinces can’t cast a vote in her support, either way…

None of the other provinces, through Members of Parliament, nor through Premiers, came to support Alberta and our economy through a number of Federal Bills that railed on our provincial resources…

Worse yet…these hypocrites cash cheques from our province, while telling us how to diversify our economy…to which I’d state one thing unequivocally…

If we wanted to be a Have Not Province…like you are…we’ll come and ask you for your advice.

Until then…

I’ll hold my Alberta Flag Higher than my Canadian…

And be proud today, of having the only Premier in the country of Canada, worthy of any praise today!