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Alberta

Nutrien may slow potash ramp-up plans as earnings, sales down

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CALGARY — The CEO of Canadian fertilizer giant Nutrien Ltd. said Thursday the company may consider slowing down its previously announced plan to ramp up potash production, in light of falling prices and lower sales volumes.

The comments come as the Saskatoon-based company — the world’s largest fertilizer producer — lowered its earnings guidance for the year to between $6.4 billion and $8.0 billion, down from a previously announced range of $8.4 billion to $10 billion.

The company’s net earnings for the third quarter were US$576 million, down 58 per cent from US$1.4 billion a year earlier, and its sales for the quarter ended March 31 were US$6.1 billion, down 20 per cent from US$7.7 billion a year earlier.

“Yes, we would consider slowing down. We’re really, as we talked about earlier this year, watching the market,” CEO Ken Seitz told analysts on a conference call to discuss the company’s disappointing first-quarter financial results.

“If we see that the market’s not there, then we’ll pace our capital accordingly.”

It has been a volatile period for Nutrien, which achieved record earnings in 2021 and then saw fertilizer prices spike in March of 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war shook up global agricultural markets and reduced supplies of fertilizer from Eastern Europe.

To meet increased global demand, Nutrien announced in June of last year a plan to ramp up potash production by 40 per cent compared with 2020 production levels — an increase of more than five million tonnes.

The company said it would achieve this by investing in expansions at its existing Saskatchewan mines, including the hiring of approximately 350 people.

But by the second half of 2022, Nutrien had suffered what it called a “historic” decline in the pace of its potash shipments. In North America and Brazil in particular, farmers appeared to be postponing fertilizer purchases in the face of high prices.

As a result, in February of this year, the company announced it would slightly delay its expansion plans, targeting 2026 instead of 2025 to reach its potash production target of 18 million tonnes.

While Seitz said Thursday the company is open to slowing its plans further, he said he remains bullish on the longer-term outlook for fertilizer. He said Nutrien anticipates increased global potash demand in the second half of the year as a result of lower-than-expected inventories and improved affordability for farmers compared with 2022.

He added that historically, periods of lower-than-normal demand have been followed by years of strong demand growth — and he expects that to happen again.

“The reality is again that we are in a market that’s growing,” Seitz said.

“We believe that’s going to carry on for the absolute foreseeable future — a two and a half to three per cent annual growth rate. New supply’s going to be required to meet that growing demand.”

Nutrien’s share price tumbled Thursday on the company’s first-quarter results, trading down almost five per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of mid-day.

The company’s diluted net earnings per share for the quarter were US$1.14, down 54 per cent from US$2.49 a year earlier.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 11, 2023.

Companies in this story: (TSX:NTR)

Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press

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Alberta

Albertans have contributed $53.6 billion to the retirement of Canadians in other provinces

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Nathaniel Li

Albertans contributed $53.6 billion more to CPP then retirees in Alberta received from it from 1981 to 2022

Albertans’ net contribution to the Canada Pension Plan —meaning the amount Albertans paid into the program over and above what retirees in Alberta
received in CPP payments—was more than six times as much as any other province at $53.6 billion from 1981 to 2022, finds a new report published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Albertan workers have been helping to fund the retirement of Canadians from coast to coast for decades, and Canadians ought to know that without Alberta, the Canada Pension Plan would look much different,” said Tegan Hill, director of Alberta policy at the Fraser Institute and co-author of Understanding Alberta’s Role in National Programs, Including the Canada Pension Plan.

From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 per cent (on average) of the total CPP premiums paid—Canada’s compulsory, government- operated retirement pension plan—while retirees in the province received only 10.0 per cent of the payments. Alberta’s net contribution over that period was $53.6 billion.

Crucially, only residents in two provinces—Alberta and British Columbia—paid more into the CPP than retirees in those provinces received in benefits, and Alberta’s contribution was six times greater than BC’s.

The reason Albertans have paid such an outsized contribution to federal and national programs, including the CPP, in recent years is because of the province’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes, and younger population.

As such, if Alberta withdrew from the CPP, Alberta workers could expect to receive the same retirement benefits but at a lower cost (i.e. lower payroll tax) than other Canadians, while the payroll tax would likely have to increase for the rest of the country (excluding Quebec) to maintain the same benefits.

“Given current demographic projections, immigration patterns, and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth, Albertan workers will likely continue to pay more into it than Albertan retirees get back from it,” Hill said.

Understanding Alberta’s Role in National Programs, Including the Canada Pension Plan

  • Understanding Alberta’s role in national income transfers and other important programs is crucial to informing the broader debate around Alberta’s possible withdrawal from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).
  • Due to Alberta’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes, and younger population, Albertans contribute significantly more to federal revenues than they receive back in federal spending.
  • From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 percent (on average) of the total CPP premiums paid while retirees in the province received only 10.0 percent of the payments. Albertans net contribution was $53.6 billion over the period—approximately six times greater than British Columbia’s net contribution (the only other net contributor).
  • Given current demographic projections, immigration patterns, and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth and income levels, Alberta’s central role in funding national programs is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
  • Due to Albertans’ disproportionate net contribution to the CPP, the current base CPP contribution rate would likely have to increase to remain sustainable if Alberta withdrew from the plan. Similarly, Alberta’s stand-alone rate would be lower than the current CPP rate.

 

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Nathaniel Li

Senior Economist, Fraser Institute
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Alberta

Alberta Institute urging Premier Smith to follow Saskatchewan and drop Industrial Carbon Tax

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From the Alberta Institute

Axe Alberta’s Industrial Carbon Tax

Aside from tariffs, carbon taxes have been the key topic of the election campaign so far, with Mark Carney announcing that the Liberals would copy the Conservatives’ long-standing policy to axe the tax – but with a big caveat.

You see, it’s misleading to talk about the carbon tax as if it were a single policy.

In fact, that’s what the Liberals would like you to think because it helps them hide all the other carbon taxes they’ve forced on Canadians and on the Provinces.

Broadly speaking, there are actually four types of carbon taxes in place in Canada:

  1. A federal consumer carbon tax
  2. A federal industrial carbon tax
  3. Various provincial consumer carbon taxes
  4. Various provincial industrial carbon taxes

Alberta was actually the first jurisdiction anywhere in North America to introduce a carbon tax in 2007, when Premier Ed Stelmach introduced a provincial industrial carbon tax.

Then, as we all know, the Alberta NDP introduced a provincial consumer carbon tax in 2017.

The provincial consumer carbon tax was short-lived, as the UCP repealed it in 2019.

But, unfortunately, the UCP failed to repeal the provincial industrial carbon tax at the same time.

Worse, by then, the federal Liberals had introduced a federal consumer carbon tax and a federal industrial carbon tax as well!

Flash forward to 2025, and the political calculus has changed dramatically.

Mark Carney might only be promising to get rid of the federal consumer carbon tax, but Pierre Poilievre is promising to get rid of both the federal consumer carbon tax and the federal industrial carbon tax.

This is a clear opportunity, and yesterday, Scott Moe jumped on it.

He announced that Saskatchewan will also be repealing its provincial industrial carbon tax.

Saskatchewan never had a provincial consumer carbon tax, which means that, within just a few weeks, people in Saskatchewan could be paying ZERO carbon tax of ANY kind.

Alberta needs to follow Saskatchewan’s lead.

The Alberta government should immediately repeal Alberta’s provincial industrial carbon tax.

There’s no excuse for our provincial government to continue burdening our industries with unnecessary costs that hurt competitiveness and deter investment.

These taxes make it harder for businesses to thrive, grow, and create jobs, especially when other provinces are taking action to eliminate similar policies.

Premier Danielle Smith must act now and eliminate the provincial industrial carbon tax in Alberta.

If you agree, please sign our petition calling on the Alberta government to Axe Alberta’s Industrial Carbon Tax today:

 

 

After you’ve signed, please send the petition to your friends, family, and wider network, so that every Albertan can have their voice heard!

– The Alberta Institute Team

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