North America LNG project cost competitiveness

From the Canadian Energy Centre

Lower costs for natural gas, shipping and liquefaction give Canada an edge in the emerging global LNG market

Worldwide concerns about energy security have put a renewed focus on the international liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. The global demand for LNG is expected to increase over the next few decades.

Global demand growth will be driven primarily by Asian markets where the need for LNG is expected to increase from 277 million tonnes (MT) in 2025 to 509 MT by 2050 (see Figure 1). By 2050 the demand for LNG in Europe will be 83 MT and in Africa 20 MT. In South America too, demand will increase – from 13 MT in 2025 to 31 MT in 2050.

Source: Derived from Rystad Energy, Gas and LNG Markets Solution.

In North America (Canada, Mexico, and United States) a number of LNG projects that are either under construction or in the planning stages will benefit from the rise in global LNG demand.

North American LNG production is expected to grow from 112 MT in 2025 to over 255 MT by 2050 (see Figure 2). In Canada, the LNG projects under construction or in the planning stages include LNG Canada Phases 1 & 2, Woodfibre LNG, Cedar LNG, the Tilbury LNG expansion, and Ksi Lisims LNG. Canada’s LNG production is expected to grow from just 2 MT in 2025 to over 43 MT by 2050. In the United States production is projected to increase from 108 MT in 2025 to 210 MT in 2050.

Source: Derived from Rystad Energy, Gas and LNG Markets Solution.

This CEC Fact Sheet uses Rystad Energy’s Gas and LNG Markets Solution¹ to benchmark the cost competitiveness of LNG projects that are under construction and proposed in Canada compared to other LNG projects under construction and planned elsewhere in North America. (Note that the content of this report does not represent the views of Rystad Energy.)

The LNG cost competitiveness benchmarking analysis used the following performance metrics:

LNG plant free-on-board (FOB) cost break-even;
Total LNG plant cost (for delivery into Asia and Europe).

The objective of this LNG cost competitiveness benchmarking is to compare the competitiveness of Canadian LNG projects against those of major competitors in the United States and Mexico. The selection of other North American LNG facilities for the benchmark comparison with Canadian LNG projects (LNG Canada, the Tilbury LNG Expansion, Woodfibre LNG, Cedar LNG, and Ksi Lisims LNG) is based on the rationale that virtually all Canadian LNG plants are under construction or in the planning stage and that they compare well with other North American LNG plants that are also under construction or are being planned between 2023 and 2050. Further, to assess the cost competitiveness of the various LNG projects more accurately, we chose only North American LNG facilities with sufficient economic data to enable such a comparison. We compared the cost competitiveness of LNG coming from these other North American projects with LNG coming from Canada that is intended to be delivered to markets in Asia and Europe.

1. Rystad Energy is an independent energy research company providing data, analytics, and consultancy services to clients around the globe. Its Gas and LNG Markets Solution provides an overview of LNG markets worldwide. The Solution covers the entire value chain associated with gas and LNG production, country and sector-level demand, and LNG trade flows, infrastructure, economics, costs, and contracts through 2050. It allows for the evaluation of the entire LNG market infrastructure, including future planned projects, as well as the benchmarking of costs for LNG projects (Rystad Energy, 2024).

Comparison of LNG project FOB cost break-even (full cycle)

Figure 3 provides a comparison of the free-on-board (FOB) cost break-even for LNG facilities under construction or being planned in North America. FOB break-even costs include upstream and midstream costs for LNG excluding transportation costs (shipping) as seen from the current year. Break-even prices assume a discount rate of 10 percent and represent the point at which the net present value for an LNG project over a 20- to 30-year period becomes positive, including the payment of capital and operating costs, inclusive of taxes.

Among the selected group of North American LNG projects are Canadian LNG projects with an FOB break-even at the lower end of the range (US$7.18 per thousand cubic feet (kcf)) to those at the higher end (US$8.64 per thousand cubic feet (kcf)).

LNG projects in the United States tend to settle in the middle of the pack, with FOB break-even between US$6.44 per kcf and US$8.37 per kcf.

Mexico LNG projects have the widest variation in costs among the selected group of projects, ranging from US$6.94 per kcf to US$9.44 per kcf (see Figure 3).

Source: Derived from Rystad Energy, Gas and LNG Markets Solution.

Total costs by project for LNG delivery to Asia and Europe

The total cost by LNG plant includes FOB cost break-even, transportation costs, and the regasification tariff. Figure 4 compares total project costs for LNG destined for Asia from selected North American LNG facilities.

Canadian LNG projects are very cost competitive, and those with Asia as their intended market tend to cluster at the lower end of the scale. The costs vary by project, but range between US$8.10 per kcf and US$9.56 per kcf, making Canadian LNG projects among the lowest cost projects in North America.

The costs for Mexico’s LNG projects with Asia as the intended destination for their product tend to cluster in the middle of the pack. Costs among U.S. LNG facilities that plan to send their product to Asia tend to sit at the higher end of the scale, at between US$8.90 and US$10.80 per kcf.

Source: Derived from Rystad Energy, Gas and LNG Markets Solution.

Figure 5 compares total project costs for LNG to be delivered to Europe from select North American LNG facilities.

Costs from U.S. LNG facilities show the widest variation for this market at between US$7.48 per kcf and US$9.42 per kcf, but the majority of U.S. LNG facilities tend to cluster at the lower end of the cost scale, between US$7.48 per kcf and US$8.61 per kcf (see Figure 5).

Canadian projects that intend to deliver LNG to Europe show a variety of costs that tend to cluster at the middle to higher end of the spectrum, ranging from US$9.60 per kcf to and US$11.06 per kcf.

The costs of Mexico’s projects that are aimed at delivering LNG to Europe tend to cluster in the middle of the spectrum (US$9.11 per kcf to US$10.61 per kcf).

Source: Derived from Rystad Energy, Gas and LNG Markets Solution.

Conclusion

LNG markets are complex. Each project is unique and presents its own challenges. The future of Canadian LNG projects depends upon the overall demand and supply in the global LNG market. As the demand for LNG increases in the next decades, the world will be searching for energy security.

The lower liquefaction and shipping costs coupled with the lower cost of the natural gas itself in Western Canada translate into lower prices for Canadian LNG, particularly that destined for Asian markets. Those advantages will help make Canadian LNG very competitive and attractive to markets worldwide.

Related Topics:#CanadaLNG #CanadianEnergyCentre #GlobalLNGMarket #LNGCostCompetitiveness #VenVenkatachalam

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Heavy-duty truckers hauling everything from restaurant supplies to specialized oilfield services along one of Western Canada’s busiest corridors now have more access to a fuel that can help reduce emissions and save costs.

Two new fuelling stations serving compressed natural gas (CNG) rather than diesel in Grande Prairie and Calgary, along with a stop that opened in Edmonton last year, create the first phase of what proponents call a “natural gas highway”.

“Compressed natural gas is viable, it’s competitive and it’s good for the environment,” said Murray Mullen, chair of Mullen Group, which operates more than 4,300 trucks and thousands of pieces of equipment supporting Western Canada’s energy industry.

Right now, the company is running 19 CNG units and plans to deploy another 15 as they become available.

“They’re running the highways right now and they’re performing exceptionally well,” Mullen said on Oct. 22 during the ribbon-cutting ceremony opening the new station on the northern edge of Calgary along Highway 2.

“Our people love them, our customers love them and I think it’s going to be the way for the future to be honest,” he said.

Heavy-duty trucks at Tourmaline and Clean Energy’s new Calgary compressed natural gas fuelling station. Photo courtesy Tourmaline

According to Natural Resources Canada, natural gas burns more cleanly than gasoline or diesel fuel, producing fewer toxic pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change.

The two new CNG stops are part of a $70 million partnership announced last year between major Canadian natural gas producer Tourmaline and California-based Clean Energy Fuels.

Their deal would see up to 20 new CNG stations built in Western Canada over the next five years, daily filling up to 3,000 natural gas-fueled trucks.

One of North America’s biggest trucking suppliers to businesses including McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, Subway and Popeye’s says the new stations will help as it expands its fleet of CNG-powered vehicles across Canada.

Amy Senter, global vice-president of sustainability with Illinois-based Martin Brower, said in a statement that using more CNG is critical to the company achieving its emissions reduction targets.

For Tourmaline, delivering CNG to heavy-duty truckers builds on its multi-year program to displace diesel in its operations, primarily by switching drilling equipment to run on natural gas.

Between 2018 and 2022, the company displaced the equivalent of 36 Olympic-sized swimming pools worth of diesel that didn’t get used, or the equivalent emissions of about 58,000 passenger vehicles.

Tourmaline CEO Mike Rose speaks to reporters during the opening of a new Tourmaline/Clean Energy compressed natural gas fuelling station in Calgary on Oct. 22, 2024. Photo courtesy Tourmaline

Tourmaline CEO Mike Rose noted that the trucking sector switching fuel from diesel to natural gas is gaining momentum, notably in Asia.

A “small but growing” share of China’s trucking fleet moving to natural gas helped drive an 11 percent reduction in overall diesel consumption this June compared to the previous year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“China’s talking about 30 percent of the trucks sold going forward are to be CNG trucks, and it’s all about reducing emissions,” Rose said.

“It’s one global atmosphere. We’re going to reduce them here; they’re going to reduce them there and everybody’s a net winner.”

Switching from diesel to CNG is “extremely cost competitive” for trucking fleets, said Clean Energy CEO Andrew Littlefair.

“It will really move the big rigs that we need in Western Canada for the long distance and heavy loads,” he said.

Tourmaline and Clean Energy aim to have seven CNG fuelling stations operating by the end of 2025. Construction is set to begin in Kamloops, B.C., followed by Fort McMurray and Fort St. John.

“You’ll have that Western Canadian corridor, and then we’ll grow it from there,” Littlefair said.

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Alberta Indigenous energy ownership driving increased economic activity

Published on October 26, 2024

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‘We live in a new world, and I’m excited about the possibilities’

Five pristine lakes sit in and around the Peerless Trout First Nation in the unbroken boreal forest of north-central Alberta about 200 kilometres north of Slave Lake.

When asked about the fishing, Tyler Letendre smiles wryly. “It lives up to the name,” says the Nation’s director of operations and economic development officer. “It’s peerless.”

The community’s leadership is exploring the idea of building a lodge to lure recreational anglers from across North America to reel in the large pike, trout and walleye that inhabit the dark blue waters in those lakes.

After joining the Clearwater Infrastructure Limited Partnership in December 2023 with 11 other Indigenous communities and Tamarack Valley Energy, they have the financial clout to develop a resort.

“Joining the partnership has been a game changer for our nation, 100 per cent. We won’t compromise on treaty rights, but we are big fans of economic growth,” says Letendre.

“The money provided by the federal government to First Nations isn’t enough to sustain the programs and infrastructure required so we have to generate our own income. Equity deals like Clearwater do that,” he says.

“We are shareholders along with major institutions. We now have banks who want to come invest in our communities. We live in a new world, and I’m excited about the possibilities.”

The Peerless Trout First Nation is located about 200 kilometres north of Slave Lake, Alberta. Photo courtesy Peerless Lake First Nation

The growing number and value of Indigenous equity ownership deals in Alberta is helping fuel stronger participation in the province’s economy, according to a recently released report from ATB Financial and MNP.

The study concluded that total Indigenous economic activity in Alberta grew by a substantial 42 per cent between 2019 and 2023.

Last year, Indigenous-owned businesses generated $5.25 billion in economic output, $380 million in tax revenues and $1.33 billion in labour income from 25,800 full-time jobs.

The resource sector has an outsized impact in this area as its relationship with First Nations and Métis communities in Alberta has evolved and grown.

“The fastest growing and largest opportunities for Indigenous communities in Alberta come from the resource sector,” says Justin Bourque, president of Âsokan Generational Developments, a consultancy that specializes in partnerships between Indigenous communities and industry.

He says the evolution of the relationship between Indigenous communities and the resource sector has mirrored the broader progress of reconciliation.

“Our entire society is on a journey of reconciliation between Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities. The engagement and relationship between the resource industry and Indigenous has continued to evolve.”

In recent years, particularly following the creation of the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) in 2019, these relationships have increasingly moved from short-term benefits to long-term legacies through equity ownership deals like Peerless Trout’s agreement with Tamarack Energy.

Justin Bourque, president of Âsokan Generational Developments, pictured on his trap line with the Long Lake oil sands facility in the background. Photo for Canadian Energy Centre

ATB highlighted the Astisiy project in the oil sands region, a Cree word meaning “thread from sinew” that is used for Indigenous beading.

In September 2021, Suncor Energy and the AIOC enabled eight Indigenous communities to acquire 15 per cent ownership of the Northern Courier Pipeline, a 90-kilometre system that transports bitumen from the Fort Hills mine to the East Tank Farm north of Fort McMurray.

The community partners are projected to receive $16 million in annual payments from the deal.

Bourque’s Willow Lake Métis Nation has used its portion of the revenues to purchase a 205-acre parcel southeast of Fort McMurray, giving the community land to call its own.

“Ownership and partnership is the next logical evolution of the relationship between Indigenous communities and the energy sector,” says Bourque.

“Before Indigenous communities had the opportunity to invest in these resource assets, a lot of the economic value out of these investments would flow to institutional investors along with the corporation,” he says.

“By having some of those benefits flow into Indigenous communities, it builds both resilience by giving them financial sovereignty and allows that community to address priorities and needs determined by them, not somebody in Ottawa.”

Opportunities are now happening at the Peerless Trout First Nation.

“Our chief and council are in the best position to decide what works for the 900 members of Peerless Lake when it comes to how to invest the monies from the partnership, whether that’s in housing, education, health care, more post-secondary scholarships or building a hockey arena or community facility,” Letendre says.