Energy
New federal law may actually inject more facts into ‘climate’ debate
From the Fraser Institute
A new federal law—Bill C-59, which received royal assent last month—has Canada’s oil and gas industry and the premiers of oil and gas provinces up in arms.
Specifically, in legalese, it allows government or outside litigants to review a “representation to the public in the form of a statement, warranty or guarantee of a product’s benefits for protecting the environment or mitigating the environmental and ecological effects of climate change that is not based on an adequate and proper test, the proof of which lies on the person making the representation.”
These “reviews” would be conducted by government courts where claimants would have to prove the truthfulness of what they were saying.
Opponents of the law argue that it constitutes a gag order on Canada’s oil and gas sector, to prevent them from marketing their products, services and technologies in a positive way. And indeed, the legislation would gag a lot oil and gas sector talk, because all claims about climate change are highly uncertain. The law would impose severe penalties on those who can’t prove themselves innocent of misrepresentation, including fines up to $15,000,000.
Industry and political objections aside, however, a good argument can be made that government does have a legitimate interest in deterring businesses from engaging in fraudulent practices or false advertising.
For example, while warming is certainly real (1.1 degrees Celsius since 1850), the human contribution to this warming is unclear. Potentially harmful changes to the climate radiating from that increased warming are highly unclear, and the ultimate impacts on human health stemming from climate change are almost completely unknown and unknowable, depending, as they would, on unpredictable economic, technologic and social factors.
Thus, any claims about a technology such as “carbon capture and storage” reducing the risks of climate change almost certainly can’t be proven truthful in a rigorous cause-and-effect way before a courtroom standard of truth in advertising.
Similarly, technologies and practices that reduce the carbon intensity of oil and gas production, often portrayed as mitigating climate risk, cannot be shown to do so in a direct provable cause-and-effect way, because climate risks themselves are multi-factorial and still speculative, and the impacts of relatively small emission reductions remain unquantifiable.
With this new federal law, the Trudeau government seemingly wants to prevent the oil and gas sector from defending its products, operations, technologies and services on the grounds that some of their actions have already, and will in future, mitigate climate risk. The oil and gas industry and its supporters say this will render the industry unable to defend itself from onerous regulations and government actions meant to drive them out of business.
Of course, a fair argument can be made that businesses in the oil and gas sector should not make claims about climate change mitigation that they can’t back up in court, and that they should be subject to the same scrutiny as any other business. And due to this new law, they will likely appear in court someday to defend themselves against the government’s long-stated belief that the industry should be shut down.
However, to the extent the new law is limited to particularly unprovable claims regarding certain technologies, this may not be an entirely bad thing. It may actually force Canada’s climate policy discussions to be grounded more in fact than fancy.
Author:
Alberta
IEA peak-oil reversal gives Alberta long-term leverage
This article supplied by Troy Media.
The peak-oil narrative has collapsed, and the IEA’s U-turn marks a major strategic win for Alberta
After years of confidently predicting that global oil demand was on the verge of collapsing, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has now reversed course—a stunning retreat that shatters the peak-oil narrative and rewrites the outlook for oil-producing regions such as Alberta.
For years, analysts warned that an oil glut was coming. Suddenly, the tide has turned. The Paris-based IEA, the world’s most influential energy forecasting body, is stepping back from its long-held view that peak oil demand is just around the corner.
The IEA reversal is a strategic boost for Alberta and a political complication for Ottawa, which now has to reconcile its climate commitments with a global outlook that no longer supports a rapid decline in fossil fuel use or the doomsday narrative Ottawa has relied on to advance its climate agenda.
Alberta’s economy remains tied to long-term global demand for reliable, conventional energy. The province produces roughly 80 per cent of Canada’s oil and depends on resource revenues to fund a significant share of its provincial budget. The sector also plays a central role in the national economy, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs and contributing close to 10 per cent of Canada’s GDP when related industries are included.
That reality stands in sharp contrast to Ottawa. Prime Minister Mark Carney has long championed net-zero timelines, ESG frameworks and tighter climate policy, and has repeatedly signalled that expanding long-term oil production is not part of his economic vision. The new IEA outlook bolsters Alberta’s position far more than it aligns with his government’s preferred direction.
Globally, the shift is even clearer. The IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook, released on Nov. 12, makes the reversal unmistakable. Under existing policies and regulations, global demand for oil and natural gas will continue to rise well past this decade and could keep climbing until 2050. Demand reaches 105 million barrels per day in 2035 and 113 million barrels per day in 2050, up from 100 million barrels per day last year, a direct contradiction of years of claims that the world was on the cusp of phasing out fossil fuels.
A key factor is the slowing pace of electric vehicle adoption, driven by weakening policy support outside China and Europe. The IEA now expects the share of electric vehicles in global car sales to plateau after 2035. In many countries, subsidies are being reduced, purchase incentives are ending and charging-infrastructure goals are slipping. Without coercive policy intervention, electric vehicle adoption will not accelerate fast enough to meaningfully cut oil demand.
The IEA’s own outlook now shows it wasn’t merely off in its forecasts; it repeatedly projected that oil demand was in rapid decline, despite evidence to the contrary. Just last year, IEA executive director Fatih Birol told the Financial Times that we were witnessing “the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.” The new outlook directly contradicts that claim.
The political landscape also matters. U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House shifted global expectations. The United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement, reversed Biden-era climate measures and embraced an expansion of domestic oil and gas production. As the world’s largest economy and the IEA’s largest contributor, the U.S. carries significant weight, and other countries, including Canada and the United Kingdom, have taken steps to shore up energy security by keeping existing fossil-fuel capacity online while navigating their longer-term transition plans.
The IEA also warns that the world is likely to miss its goal of limiting temperature increases to 1.5 °C over pre-industrial levels. During the Biden years, the IAE maintained that reaching net-zero by mid-century required ending investment in new oil, gas and coal projects. That stance has now faded. Its updated position concedes that demand will not fall quickly enough to meet those targets.
Investment banks are also adjusting. A Bloomberg report citing Goldman Sachs analysts projects global oil demand could rise to 113 million barrels per day by 2040, compared with 103.5 million barrels per day in 2024, Irina Slav wrote for Oilprice.com. Goldman cites slow progress on net-zero policies, infrastructure challenges for wind and solar and weaker electric vehicle adoption.
“We do not assume major breakthroughs in low-carbon technology,” Sachs’ analysts wrote. “Even for peaking road oil demand, we expect a long plateau after 2030.” That implies a stable, not shrinking, market for oil.
OPEC, long insisting that peak demand is nowhere in sight, feels vindicated. “We hope … we have passed the peak in the misguided notion of ‘peak oil’,” the organization said last Wednesday after the outlook’s release.
Oil is set to remain at the centre of global energy demand for years to come, and for Alberta, Canada’s energy capital, the IEA’s course correction offers renewed certainty in a world that had been prematurely writing off its future.
Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.
Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.
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