Alberta
New COVID-19 modelling concludes the most likely scenario is much lower than former numbers
From the Province of Alberta
COVID-19 modelling data update
Revised data show protective measures and the efforts of Albertans are making a critical difference in our fight against COVID-19.
The Government of Alberta has introduced a new “low” modelling scenario estimating 298 Albertans will require hospitalization and 95 will require critical care when the virus reaches its peak. If current trends continue, this scenario will become the most likely scenario for Alberta.
Updated modelling scenarios continue to estimate that Alberta’s outbreak will reach its peak in late May. However, the number of Albertans hospitalized at the peak of the virus is predicted to be lower than originally estimated. This reflects Alberta’s experience over the past few weeks and the proportion of cases actually entering hospital and intensive care units.
“The data show us that our efforts to lower the peak of the virus are working, but we must remain vigilant. We continue to refine our modelling in order to ensure our health-care system is prepared. While we are still a ways off from returning to our normal way of life, our government is working around the clock on a phased approach to relaunch our economy safely. It is essential Albertans continue to exercise common sense and follow public health guidance so we can get the economy moving again as quickly as possible.”
As a result of aggressive public health measures put in place, the probable scenario now estimates 596 people in Alberta will require hospitalization, with 190 requiring critical care on the days when the virus reaches its peak. With Alberta’s younger-than-average population and our aggressive testing measures, which are able to catch cases with less severe symptoms, Alberta Health’s new “low” scenario is fortunately becoming our most realistic.
Alberta Health has scaled up the capacity of the province’s health-care system in order to ensure it is prepared to support patients at the peak of the pandemic in any scenario.
Existing public health measures remain in place to stop the spread of COVID-19.
Quick facts
- The model uses several key assumptions, including:
- not all cases are detected
- transmission is more common within an age group, rather than between age groups
- there is no asymptomatic transmission
- people are infectious for five to 10 days
- all ICU patients require ventilation
- overall, nine per cent of cases are hospitalized and two per cent require ICU, but this varies significantly by age. The low scenario assumes 4.5 per cent of cases are hospitalized and one per cent require ICU, which aligns with actual results.
- The most important measure Albertans can take to prevent respiratory illnesses, including COVID-19, is to practise good hygiene.
- This includes cleaning your hands regularly for at least 20 seconds, avoiding touching your face, coughing or sneezing into your elbow or sleeve, and disposing of tissues appropriately.
- Any individual exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19, including cough, fever, runny nose, sore throat or shortness of breath, is eligible for testing. People can access testing by completing the COVID-19 self-assessment online. A separate self-assessment tool is available for health-care and shelter workers, enforcement and first responders. After completing the form, there is no need to call 811.
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Alberta’s government is helping students discover their skills and interests today, to help them find careers for tomorrow.
If passed, Budget 2025 will provide more than $100 million over three years for school boards to grow career education programs, including funding for more collegiate and dual-credit programs across Alberta.
“We are working to set students up for success by strengthening job-focused education. This money is helping schools partner with businesses, universities and colleges to create programs that will help students hit the ground running after they graduate.”
Career education helps students gain credits towards graduation while earning hands-on experience in fields like the trades, computer programming, health care, agriculture, culinary arts and more. These career education programs support a strong economy by helping students learn the skills they need to get in-demand jobs.
Collegiate schools
Collegiate schools work with businesses, universities and colleges to offer classes that give students pathways to education and careers in the job of their choice. There are 12 collegiate schools in Alberta, offering many different types of programming for grades 7-12, including aviation, graphic design, trades and more.
If passed, Budget 2025 provides more than $21 million to school boards to help fund special classrooms like carpentry workshops, film and media rooms, science laboratories, heavy equipment simulators and aircraft hangars. Another $6 million is being invested to support the start-up costs for new collegiate schools.
Dual-credit programs
Budget 2025, if passed, also provides $4.6 million in 2025/26 to start new or improve existing dual-credit programs. In partnership with universities and colleges, dual-credit programs give students a head start on rewarding careers by allowing them to earn high-school and post-secondary credits at the same time. Of the $4.6 million, $550,000 is being provided by Alberta Seniors, Community and Social Services for new and improved dual-credit health care aide programs.
“Health care aides play a critical role in ensuring Albertans receive the continuing care services they need to maintain their health, independence and quality of life. Our investments into career pathways for health care aides will provide opportunities for young Albertans to develop the skills they need to build a rewarding career in Alberta’s continuing care workforce.”
Another $1.4 million is being invested to support students participating in off-campus career education programs through CAREERS. This non-profit connects students to jobs in high-demand fields, such as the trades, technology, health, forestry and agriculture.
“Investments in collegiate and dual-credit programming are significant for Calgary Catholic as they further strengthen our collegiate and dual-credit programming. This programming will open opportunities for our students and help them to realize their full potential.”
“Before Fusion Collegiate, I felt lost and wasn’t really sure what to do after high school. Thanks to its career-focused learning and the opportunities through Fusion and The Educational Partnership Foundation, I’m now working as a first-year apprentice plumber with Mr. Rooter. The hands-on trades training, high school credits, safety certifications, and real-world skills I picked up completely changed my life. I’m excited about where my career is headed and really thankful for the support that helped me get here.”
Budget 2025 is meeting the challenge faced by Alberta communities with continued investments in education and health, lower taxes for families and a focus on the economy.
Quick facts
- If passed, Budget 2025 invests $102.4 million over three years to provide sustainable, predictable career education funding, and to increase access to career education for Alberta students.
- This includes $8.4 million over 2026-27 and 2027-28 to raise awareness among students and families of career education programs and pathways available to Alberta students.
- Career education in Alberta includes career and technology courses, Career and Life Management (CALM), dual-credit courses, collegiate schools, apprenticeships and off-campus education programming.
- Since 2013, more than 95,000 high school students participated in at least one dual–credit course.
- In spring 2025, Alberta Education will engage with education partners on best practices to bring more career education opportunities to students.
- Since 2022, education partners and almost 5,000 Albertans have provided their feedback on career education and workforce needs.
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Alberta
Photo radar to be restricted to School, Playground, and Construction Zones as Alberta ends photo radar era
Alberta’s government is fulfilling its promise to end Automated Traffic Enforcement (ATE) in select locations while enhancing safety with a new Traffic Safety Fund.
For years, Alberta has had the most ATE sites of any jurisdiction in Canada with many serving as a “cash cow,” generating millions of dollars in revenue with no clear evidence they were improving traffic safety. Now, following thorough consultation and review of existing ATE sites, Alberta’s government is making significant changes to restore public trust in the use of photo radar.
Effective April 1, the updated ATE Technology Guideline will prohibit photo radar on numbered provincial highways and connectors, restricting it only to school, playground and construction zones. Intersection safety devices in Alberta will also be limited to red light enforcement only, ending the “speed-on-green” ticketing function.
“We have officially killed the photo radar cash cow and the revenue-generating “fishing holes” that made Alberta the biggest user of photo radar in Canada. The updated guideline will ensure that photo radar is used for safety only. The new provincial traffic safety fund will support municipalities in physical improvements at key intersections, helping to reduce traffic risks and enhance safe roads.”
Alberta’s government has also created a new $13-million Traffic Safety Fund for municipalities to upgrade local roads and intersections that pose demonstrated safety risks. Details will be made available on how to apply for the Traffic Safety Fund, once the application process has been finalized.
“This shift ensures that photo radar is used where it matters most – near schools, playgrounds and construction zones. Traffic enforcement should be about protecting people, not generating revenue. The new Traffic Safety Fund gives municipalities the tools to make targeted improvements to roads and intersections with real safety concerns. Keeping Edmontonians safe on our streets must always remain the priority.”
“Shifting photo radar to playgrounds and construction zones enhances safety where it matters most – protecting our children and workers on Calgary’s roads. I’m proud to back this important step toward safer communities.”
“The Traffic Safety Fund is a welcome addition to the overall funding available to municipalities. The Rural Municipalities of Alberta support a dynamic approach to managing traffic safety.”
Municipalities are encouraged to use traffic calming measures instead of photo radar but may request provincial approval for an exemption to the photo radar ban in high-collision locations. To do so, municipalities must submit a business case detailing high-collision frequency and severity at the site, relative to similar locations, and demonstrate how other safety measures are not possible or will be ineffective. To be approved for an exemption, they must also commit to audit the exempted site every two years to assess the effectiveness of photo radar in reducing collisions at that location.
The updated ATE Technology Guideline also includes parameters around equipment testing and maintenance, data collection and reporting requirements, traffic safety plans, signage and public communication of photo radar locations.
Quick facts
- On April 1, the new ATE 2025 Technology Guideline comes into force.
- The newly created Traffic Safety Fund will provide $13 million over three years to help municipalities re-engineer intersections to reduce collisions:
- $1 million in 2025-26
- $2 million in 2026-27
- $10 million in 2027-28
- Alberta first introduced photo radar in 1987.
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