Alberta
New COVID-19 modelling concludes the most likely scenario is much lower than former numbers
From the Province of Alberta
COVID-19 modelling data update
Revised data show protective measures and the efforts of Albertans are making a critical difference in our fight against COVID-19.
The Government of Alberta has introduced a new “low” modelling scenario estimating 298 Albertans will require hospitalization and 95 will require critical care when the virus reaches its peak. If current trends continue, this scenario will become the most likely scenario for Alberta.
Updated modelling scenarios continue to estimate that Alberta’s outbreak will reach its peak in late May. However, the number of Albertans hospitalized at the peak of the virus is predicted to be lower than originally estimated. This reflects Alberta’s experience over the past few weeks and the proportion of cases actually entering hospital and intensive care units.
“The data show us that our efforts to lower the peak of the virus are working, but we must remain vigilant. We continue to refine our modelling in order to ensure our health-care system is prepared. While we are still a ways off from returning to our normal way of life, our government is working around the clock on a phased approach to relaunch our economy safely. It is essential Albertans continue to exercise common sense and follow public health guidance so we can get the economy moving again as quickly as possible.”
As a result of aggressive public health measures put in place, the probable scenario now estimates 596 people in Alberta will require hospitalization, with 190 requiring critical care on the days when the virus reaches its peak. With Alberta’s younger-than-average population and our aggressive testing measures, which are able to catch cases with less severe symptoms, Alberta Health’s new “low” scenario is fortunately becoming our most realistic.
Alberta Health has scaled up the capacity of the province’s health-care system in order to ensure it is prepared to support patients at the peak of the pandemic in any scenario.
Existing public health measures remain in place to stop the spread of COVID-19.
Quick facts
- The model uses several key assumptions, including:
- not all cases are detected
- transmission is more common within an age group, rather than between age groups
- there is no asymptomatic transmission
- people are infectious for five to 10 days
- all ICU patients require ventilation
- overall, nine per cent of cases are hospitalized and two per cent require ICU, but this varies significantly by age. The low scenario assumes 4.5 per cent of cases are hospitalized and one per cent require ICU, which aligns with actual results.
- The most important measure Albertans can take to prevent respiratory illnesses, including COVID-19, is to practise good hygiene.
- This includes cleaning your hands regularly for at least 20 seconds, avoiding touching your face, coughing or sneezing into your elbow or sleeve, and disposing of tissues appropriately.
- Any individual exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19, including cough, fever, runny nose, sore throat or shortness of breath, is eligible for testing. People can access testing by completing the COVID-19 self-assessment online. A separate self-assessment tool is available for health-care and shelter workers, enforcement and first responders. After completing the form, there is no need to call 811.
#RedDeerStrong – Local business pivots from fire resistant workwear to antimicrobial face masks
Show your Alberta side. Buy Local. |
When the going gets tough, Albertans stick together. That’s why Alberta’s government is launching a new campaign to benefit hard-working Albertans.
Global uncertainty is threatening the livelihoods of hard-working Alberta farmers, ranchers, processors and their families. The ‘Buy Local’ campaign, recently launched by Alberta’s government, encourages consumers to eat, drink and buy local to show our unified support for the province’s agriculture and food industry.
The government’s ‘Buy Local’ campaign encourages consumers to buy products from Alberta’s hard-working farmers, ranchers and food processors that produce safe, nutritious food for Albertans, Canadians and the world.
“It’s time to let these hard-working Albertans know we have their back. Now, more than ever, we need to shop local and buy made-in-Alberta products. The next time you are grocery shopping or go out for dinner or a drink with your friends or family, support local to demonstrate your Alberta pride. We are pleased tariffs don’t impact the ag industry right now and will keep advocating for our ag industry.”
Alberta’s government supports consumer choice. We are providing tools to help folks easily identify Alberta- and Canadian-made foods and products. Choosing local products keeps Albertans’ hard-earned dollars in our province. Whether it is farm-fresh vegetables, potatoes, honey, craft beer, frozen food or our world-renowned beef, Alberta has an abundance of fresh foods produced right on our doorstep.
Quick facts
- This summer, Albertans can support local at more than 150 farmers’ markets across the province and meet the folks who make, bake and grow our food.
- In March 2023, the Alberta government launched the ‘Made in Alberta’ voluntary food and beverage labelling program to support local agriculture and food sectors.
- Through direct connections with processors, the program has created the momentum to continue expanding consumer awareness about the ‘Made in Alberta’ label to help shoppers quickly identify foods and beverages produced in our province.
- Made in Alberta product catalogue website
Related information
- Buy Local Alberta
- Made in Alberta Product Catalogue
- Alberta Agri-Food Products and Services Export Catalogue
Alberta
Province to expand services provided by Alberta Sheriffs: New policing option for municipalities
Expanding municipal police service options |
Proposed amendments would help ensure Alberta’s evolving public safety needs are met while also giving municipalities more options for local policing.
As first announced with the introduction of the Public Safety Statutes Amendment Act, 2024, Alberta’s government is considering creating a new independent agency police service to assume the police-like duties currently performed by Alberta Sheriffs. If passed, Bill 49 would lay additional groundwork for the new police service.
Proposed amendments to the Police Act recognize the unique challenges faced by different communities and seek to empower local governments to adopt strategies that effectively respond to their specific safety concerns, enhancing overall public safety across the province.
If passed, Bill 49 would specify that the new agency would be a Crown corporation with an independent board of directors to oversee its day-to-day operations. The new agency would be operationally independent from the government, consistent with all police services in Alberta. Unlike the Alberta Sheriffs, officers in the new police service would be directly employed by the police service rather than by the government.
“With this bill, we are taking the necessary steps to address the unique public safety concerns in communities across Alberta. As we work towards creating an independent agency police service, we are providing an essential component of Alberta’s police framework for years to come. Our aim is for the new agency is to ensure that Albertans are safe in their communities and receive the best possible service when they need it most.”
Additional amendments would allow municipalities to select the new agency as their local police service once it becomes fully operational and the necessary standards, capacity and frameworks are in place. Alberta’s government is committed to ensuring the new agency works collaboratively with all police services to meet the province’s evolving public safety needs and improve law enforcement response times, particularly in rural communities. While the RCMP would remain the official provincial police service, municipalities would have a new option for their local policing needs.
Once established, the agency would strengthen Alberta’s existing policing model and complement the province’s current police services, which include the RCMP, Indigenous police services and municipal police. It would help fill gaps and ensure law enforcement resources are deployed efficiently across the province.
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