LISTEN: My date with self-isolation amid the Covid 19 scare – J’Lyn Nye Interview

Lloyd Lewis

Published

5 years ago

15 minute read

I was happy to join J’Lyn Nye today on 630 CHED to discuss this. Here is a link to the interview.

It’s funny how these things go. I don’t buy lottery tickets so it’s only fitting that I would be one of the 4.5 million Albertans who may have come into contact with one of Alberta’s seven confirmed cases of Covid 19 (Coronavirus Disease). You can do the math if you’re an oddsmaker.

It started with a phone call late yesterday afternoon from a nurse in the contagious disease unit at AHS. She informed me that a person who had tested positive for the virus had been at a place of business in Leduc at the same time I had been there for an appointment.

After asking a number of questions about how I was feeling, she told me that they’d like me to “self-isolate” for 14 days. During that time, I should take my temperature twice a day and if I develop any symptoms, to call and they’d arrange for a test. There really is no treatment at this point as a vaccine is yet to be developed and will likely be another 12-18 months away from widespread use.

So here I sit. Do I self-isolate? Do I go about my business? I’m a healthy guy. I’ve only had the flu once in my lifetime that I can remember, so what are the chances that I might test positive for this? Again, I’m not an oddsmaker, and certainly not a doctor. In fact, it’s not like the flu at all so that’s a useless comparison. The chances are probably slim. So I look at my calendar. Reality is that I’m lucky. I operate a digital media platform and literally 100% of my work can be done online if needed. I work from home 80% of the time, leaving the house for various business appointments and social events. Luckily my calendar is light with nothing that can’t be moved or dealt with online.

There is one niggly thing though. A recording session this coming Sunday with a band I sometimes play guitar with in Central Alberta. By Sunday, I should be virtually good to go, that being day 12 after my potential contact. It took a lot of schedule bashing to pull everyone together to do this session. Maybe I should just risk it and not tell anyone. And then I think about that … none of my bandmates are getting any younger, in fact, if I’m facing reality, we’re probably all in that age sweet spot where we’re most-susceptible.

Ok, decision made. Postpone the session. Schedule is now clear except for a couple of sundry tasks that can be accomplished with limited help from some friends.

But … then I think about if I worked at a job where I don’t get paid unless I show up to work. Maybe I’m a contractor. Maybe I have a family and am the sole income earner, or I’m a single parent working two part time jobs. I’m not sure I would make the same decision. I mean, seriously, I feel fine. Not even a sniffle. Would I stay home? Or go make some money to pay my monthend bills? I’m happy I don’t have to make that decision.

“… Another thing I’ve thought quite a bit about is toilet paper…”

I’ve now had 18 hours to process all of this and think it through. I must admit, I’ve never really thought that much about how a disease spreads, other than notionally knowing it happens through various forms of contact, and I think is more prone to spread in certain environments; heavily populated, warm, humid conditions, etc. A scientist I am not.

My date with self-isolation has given me a very real opportunity to reflect on my own travels and interactions since having potentially being exposed to the virus eight days ago. With this newfound time in my schedule, I’ve had a chance to think this through. Since yesterday afternoon, I’ve taken myself out of circulation. I have eliminated my risk to others. With luck I won’t test positive, and everyone in my circle will be spared from self-isolation. I will pull out a guitar and work on the material for the session we postponed. Overall, I’m starting to feel pretty good about my decision.

“…I wonder, can our system possibly get on top of this? It feels like a hopeless task, yet we have to try, right?…”

But what if, just what if, I become Positive Confirmation #8 in the province? Suddenly, everyone I’ve been around since March 3rd becomes of interest. Is Arnie at risk? I attended the Power of Success show last Thursday in Edmonton with Arnold Schwarzenegger and Friends. Lucky for them I couldn’t afford the Platinum ticket that would have given me the opportunity shake Arnie’s hand and get my picture taken with the man himself. I’d certainly have been within 2 meters, and I know we would have had a proper and firm handshake.

“…There will no doubt be businesses that close as a result of this- some for good…”

Oh. Something else … the long-term care home I where I visited my Dad and his wife this past Sunday? That could get messy, considering I also spent time with his doctor, one of the few in the area.

Or the auto repair shop I limped my sick car to yesterday morning after taking out both rims on the right side Sunday when I tangled with one of the ridiculously large and dangerous potholes at 110 kph on Highway 43. (That’s a whole other rant!)

The list goes on. As I think of the permutations and potential for chaos, it’s sobering. How quickly this can spread here is yet to be seen. It doesn’t spread through the air like measles, but it does spread through contact, or droplets generated by a sneeze or cough, and can live on surfaces we touch. Washing hands and cleaning surfaces is critical to helping stop the spread, and that’s just basic common sense anyway.

“However, it can spread person to person by larger droplets, like from a cough or sneeze, or by touching contaminated objects, then touching your eyes, nose or mouth,” says Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health.

I wonder, can our system possibly get on top of this? It feels like a hopeless task, yet we have to try, right? Maybe geting on top of it isn’t possible. But can we slow the spread with a precaution like I’m being asked to take? Yes we can. But what else has to happen if we’re to make the mitigation effort as effective as possible?

Canada develops COVID-19 guidelines for major events

There will no doubt be businesses that close as a result of this- some for good. Think about it. If I go for a coffee everyday at my favourite coffee shop, but because my employer has asked us all to work from home, that coffee shop owner is going to miss out on my $3 bucks a day. And let’s say that happens for 2 weeks. That’s ten cups of coffee, or $30 dollars. I’m not going to go in on the first day back and buy ten cups of coffee. No, I’ll buy one. That money is lost. Multiply that by 100 customers a day and the numbers can add up to a point where many small businesses can’t survive.

There needs to be programs to help them recover. Maybe there are already. What about for the wage earner who has to take time off work to self isolate and make the community safer for everyone else. Is there a program to help them reover their lost wages? How long will that take to put money back in their wallets should they make the sacrifice for the safety of the community? If we’re serious about mitigation, we will need to really think about how to deal with the downstream consequences.

This isn’t survival of the fittest. We need those employers and their employees to get through this and be there when this passes, or we’ll be in even worse shape.

Another thing I’ve thought quite a bit about is toilet paper.

Although this is a new virus and research is only starting to be evaluated, it appears to affect respiratory function more so than gastronomic function, though again, it’s pretty early to know for sure. But best I can tell, there is no way that I need to have a year’s supply of toilet paper on hand. I can see having more than normal, just in case things get out of hand. But to be hoarding it for some weird survivalistic reason, especially against a backdrop of short-term supply shortages exacerbated by recent rail blockages seems … well, just completely irrational to me. Settle down, there’s more coming! And hey, if you’re sick enough to go through that much toilet paper, there may be even more wrong with you and you’ll probably be in a hospital. Show a little kindness for the butts of your neighbours. Like that old joke “…Dick’s a hoarder. Don’t be a Dick…”

Seriously, take a moment and give this a bit of thought. This can change pretty fast, like it did for me. A phone call. And then you don’t go out again for up to 14 days. So think in terms of a 3 week supply of things you’ll need. If you’re alone and have nobody to help you, then you’ll need to be even more diligent in planning.

I’ll let you know how it goes. Hopefully I’ll see you in a couple of weeks!

Here is a link with helpful tips that will help you make an appropriate plan.

From the Government of Canada:

If COVID-19 becomes common in your community, you will want to have thought about how to change your behaviours and routines to reduce the risk of infection.

Your plan should include how you can change your regular habits to reduce your exposure to crowded places. For example, you may:

do your grocery shopping at off-peak hours
commute by public transit outside of the busy rush hour
opt to exercise outdoors instead of in an indoor fitness class

Your plan should also include what you will do if you become sick. If you are a caregiver of children or other dependents, you will want to have thought ahead to engage backup caregivers.

You should also think about what you will do if a member of your family becomes sick and needs care. Talk to your employer about working from home if you are needed to care for a family member at home. If you, yourself, become ill, stay home until you are no longer showing symptoms. Employers should not require a sick leave note as that will put added pressure on limited health care services.

Your plan should include shopping for supplies that you should have on hand at all times. This will ensure you do not need to leave your home while you are sick or busy caring for an ill family member.

Your plan should build on the kits you have prepared for other potential emergencies. For more information on how to prepare yourself and your family in the event of an emergency, please visit getprepared.ca.

Lloyd Lewis

www.todayville.com

President Todayville Inc., Honorary Colonel 41 Signal Regiment, Board Member Lieutenant Governor of Alberta Arts Award Foundation, Director Canadian Forces Liaison Council (Alberta) musician, photographer, former VP/GM CTV Edmonton.

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Alberta

Alberta Income Tax cut is great but balanced budgets are needed

Published on February 28, 2025

Todayville

By Kris Sims

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is applauding the Alberta government for giving Albertans a huge income tax cut in Budget 2025, but is strongly warning against its dive into debt by running a deficit.

“Premier Danielle Smith keeping her promise to cut Alberta’s income tax is great news, because it means huge savings for most working families,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “Families are fighting to afford basics right now, and if they can save more than $1,500 per year thanks to this big tax cut, that would cover a month’s rent or more than a month’s worth of groceries.”

Finance Minister Nate Horner announced, effective this fiscal year, Alberta will drop its lowest income tax rate to eight per cent, down from 10 per cent, for the first $60,000 of earnings.

The government estimates this income tax cut will save the average Alberta worker about $750 per year, or more than $1,500 per year for a two-person working family.

Albertans earning less than $60,000 a year will see a 20 per cent reduction to their annual provincial income tax bill.

The budget also contained some bad news.

The province is running a $5.2 billion deficit in 2025-26 and the government is planning to keep running deficits for two more years.

Total spending has gone up from $73.1 billion from last budget to $79.3 billion this year, an increase of 8.4 per cent.

“If the government had frozen spending at last year’s budget level, the province could have a $1 billion surplus and still cut the income tax,” said Sims. “The debt is going up over the next few years, but we caught a lucky break with interest rates dropping this past year, so we aren’t paying as much in interest payments on the debt.”

The province’s debt is now estimated to be $82.8 billion for 2025-26.

Interest payments on the provincial debt are costing taxpayers about $2.9 billion, about a 12 per cent decrease from last year.

Alberta

Alberta 2025 Budget Review from the Alberta Institute

Published on February 27, 2025

Todayville

The government has just tabled its budget in the Legislature.

We were invited to the government’s advance briefing, which gave us a few hours to review the documents, ask questions, and analyze the numbers before the official release.

Now that the embargo has been lifted, we can share our thoughts with you.

However, this is just our preliminary analysis – we’ll have a more in-depth breakdown for you next week.

*****

The 2025/26 Budget is a projection for the next year – what the government expects will happen from April 1st, 2025 to March 31st, 2026.

It represents the government’s best estimate of future revenue and its plan for expenditures.

In the budget (and in this email) this type of figure is referred to as a Budget figure.

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The actual final figures won’t be known until the 2025/26 Annual Report is released in the middle of next year.

Of course, as we’ve seen in the past, things don’t always go according to plan.

In the budget (and in this email) this type of figure is referred to as an Actual figure.

Importantly, this means that the 2024/25 Annual Report isn’t ready yet, either.

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Therefore, in the meantime, the Q3 2025/26 Fiscal Update, which has figures up to December 31st, 2024, provides a forecast for the 2024/25 year.

The government looks at the actual results three quarters of the way through the previous year, and uses those figures to get the most accurate forecast on what will be the final result in the annual report, to help with estimating the 2025-26 year.

In the budget (and in this email) this type of figure is referred to as a Forecast figure.

*****

Accurately estimating, and tracking these three types of figures is a key part of good budgeting.

Sometimes, the economy performs better than expected, oil prices could be higher than initially forecast, or more revenue may come in from other sources.

But, other times, there’s a recession or a drop in oil prices, leading to lower-than-expected revenue.

On the spending side, governments sometimes find savings, keeping expenses lower than planned.

Alternatively, unexpected costs, disasters, or just governments being governments can also drive spending higher than budgeted.

The best way to manage this uncertainty is:

Be conservative in estimating revenue.
Only plan to spend what is reasonably expected to come in.
Stick to that spending plan to avoid overspending.

By following these principles, the risk of an unexpected deficit is minimized.

And if revenue exceeds expectations or expenses come in lower, the surplus can be used to pay down debt or be returned to taxpayers.

On these three measures, this year’s budget gets a mixed grade.

*****

On the first point, the government has indeed made some pretty conservative estimates of revenue – including assuming an oil price several dollars below where it currently stands, and well below the previous year’s predictions.

The government has also assumed there will be some significant (though not catastrophic) effects from a potential trade war.

If oil prices end up higher, or Canada avoids a trade war with the US, then revenue could be significantly higher than planned.

Interestingly, this year’s budget looks very different depending on whether you compare it to last year’s budget, or the latest forecast.

This year’s budget revenue is $6.6 billion lower than what actually happened in last year’s forecast revenue.

But, this year’s budget revenue is actually $600 million higher than what was expected to happen in last year’s budget revenue.

In other words, if you compare this year’s budget to what the government expected to happen last year, revenue is up a small amount, but when you compare this year’s budget to what actually happened last year, revenue is down a lot.

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On the second point, unfortunately, the government doesn’t score so well.

Expenses are up quite a bit, even though revenue is expected to drop.

According to some measurements, expenditures are increasing slower than the combined rate of population growth and inflation – which is the goal the government set for itself in 2023.

But, when other expenses like contingencies for emergencies are included, or when expenses are measured in other ways, spending is increasing faster than that benchmark.

This year’s budget expenses are $4.4 billion higher than what was actually spent in last year’s forecast expenses.

But, this year’s budget expenses are $6.1 billion higher than what was expected to happen in last year’s budget expenses.

Perhaps the bigger question is why is expenditure increasing at all when revenue is expected to drop?

If there’s less money coming in, the government should really be using this as an opportunity to reduce overall expenditures.

*****

On the third point, we will – of course – have to wait and see what the final accounts look like next year!

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Before we wrap up this initial analysis, there’s one aspect of the budget that is likely to receive significant attention, and that is a tax cut.

Originally planned to be phased in over the next few years, a tax cut will now be back-dated to January 1st of this year.

Previously, any income below about $150,000 was subject to a 10% provincial tax, while incomes above $150,000 attract higher and higher tax rates of 12%, 13%, 14%, and 15% as incomes increase.

Under the new tax plan, incomes under $60,000 would only be taxed at 8%, with incomes between $60,000 and $150,000 still paying 10%, and incomes above $150,000 still paying 12%, 13%, 14%, and 15%, as before.

Some commentators are likely to question the wisdom of a tax cut that reduces revenue when the budget is going to be in deficit.

But, the reality is that this tax cut doesn’t actually cost much.

We’ll have the exact figures for you by next week, but suffice to say that it’s a pretty small portion of the overall deficit, and there’s a deficit because spending is up a lot, not because of a small tax cut.

In general, lower taxes are good, but we would have preferred the government work towards a lower, flatter tax instead.

The Alberta Advantage was built on Alberta’s unique flat tax system where everyone paid the same low flat tax (not the same amount, the same percentage!) and so wasn’t punished for succeeding.

Alberta needs a plan to get back to a low flat tax, and we will continue to advocate for this at the Alberta Institute.

Maybe we can do better than just returning to the old 10% flat tax, though?

Maybe we should aim for a flat tax of 8%, instead?

That’s it for today’s quick initial analysis.

In next week’s analysis, we’ll break down the pros and cons of these decisions and outline where we might have taken a different approach.

In the meantime, if you appreciate our work and want to support more of this kind of independent analysis of Alberta’s finances, please consider making a donation here:

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