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Alberta

Multi-billion Dow Chemical investment pegs Alberta as a top spot for low carbon plastics production

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The announcement Dow will construct the world’s first net-zero carbon emissions ethylene and derivatives complex, in Fort Saskatchewan, Wednesday November 29, 2023.

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Will Gibson

Net zero petrochemical complex seen as a signpost for future investment in Alberta’s Industrial Heartland

Dow Chemical’s Nov. 28 announcement confirming it will invest $8.8 billion to build a net zero petrochemical complex near Edmonton was close to a decade in the making for Fort Saskatchewan Mayor Gale Katchur. 

“Now that they’ve finally announced the project, I’m one of the happiest mayors around,” says Katchur, who was first elected in October 2010. 

“What Dow is building will inspire other industries with innovation and technology like this. Dow has been a cornerstone for our community for the past 60 years. This investment ensures they are going to be around for a lot longer.” 

The project, which has support from the municipal, provincial and federal governments, will increase Dow’s production of polyethylene, the most widely used plastic in the world. 

Welcomed by the community 

By capturing and storing carbon dioxide emissions and generating hydrogen on-site, the complex will be the world’s first ethylene cracker with net zero emissions from operations.  

“I remember speaking to Dow executives during their regional visit some years back. They were curious about potential public concerns, given the visibility of their visit and the nature of their business,” Katchur says. 

“My response was clear: the primary concern in our community is the pace of progress. People here recognize and appreciate the petrochemical industry. We understand the benefits that it brings.” 

Competitive advantages 

Katchur’s joy is shared by Mark Plamondon, executive director of Alberta’s Industrial Heartland Association, who sees the Michigan-based multinational’s decision as an endorsement of the region’s competitive advantages. 

“Dow is a global company and could put their capital anywhere in the world,” says Plamondon, whose group attracts global investment in heavy industry to the 582-square-kilometre region northeast of Edmonton.  

“What this demonstrates is Dow can meet both their economic and environmental goals by investing in this region. That sends a real message.” 

Bob Masterson, CEO of the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada, sees Dow’s decision to build the facility as a signal of where the industry will make large investments in the future. 

“In the short term, you are looking at the province’s largest construction project requiring more than 7,000 high-skill, high-paying jobs for the next seven to 10 years,” says Masterson, whose Ottawa-based group represents chemistry and plastics producers across Canada.  

Alberta a top destination for low carbon chemical production 

“What Dow’s decision really says is Alberta is a top destination for the chemistry industry to invest. One of the top chemical producers in the world is making this investment in Canada,” he says. 

“When you look at the bigger picture, the only real rival for low-carbon investment of this kind is the U.S. Gulf Coast, where you have the same access to natural gas liquids as a feedstock and supportive public policy environment.” 

The Industrial Heartland region is particularly attractive for companies looking to invest in low-carbon products, Masterson says. 

“Alberta has an abundant low-carbon feedstock in natural gas liquids to produce hydrogen and the geological space to sequester carbon. These natural assets can encourage investment and support low-carbon chemistry industry,” he says.  

“One of the largest petrochemical companies on the planet believes it can build a low-carbon chemistry plant based on these assets. Other companies will see they can generate and extract that value out of those resources in a very sustainable and responsible manner.” 

Filling space on the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line 

In addition to geological and natural resources, the region already possesses critical infrastructure to woo investment in low-carbon production, such as the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line (ACTL), the world’s largest CO2 pipeline.  

Dow has signed an agreement with ACTL owner Wolf Midstream to utilize space on the system.  

ACTL is the foundation of a hub that captures CO2 from an oil refinery and fertilizer plant and moves it for permanent storage in a nearby depleted oil field.  

The pipeline currently transports 1.6 million tonnes of CO2 per year but is built to transport 14.6 million tonnes of CO2 per year.  

“The infrastructure is in place already. The trunk line has plenty of surplus capacity to transport additional emissions,” Plamondon says.  

“That just adds to the value proposition for potential facilities that are moving to low-carbon production.” 

Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

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Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

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Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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