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David Clinton

Is Marriage the Strongest Predictor of Wealth in Canada?

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Love, they say, is a many-splendored thing. But I can tell you with confidence that, in Canada at least, it also pays handsomely.

Sharp downward trends in fertility rates are pointing to a bleak future. And as we’re discovering, immigration isn’t necessarily going to save us. Working on the reasonable assumption that the high costs of raising kids were holding us back, governments have been working for decades to encourage childbirth through programs like the Canada Child Tax Benefit. Their hearts were in the right place, but the result haven’t been great.

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The child and family support programs have been significant. For example, the average total of government support transfers in inflation-adjusted dollars paid to single parents have grown from $11,600 in 1976 to $19,400 in 2022. That amounts to around 29 percent of their average total earned income. Benefits for couples with children nearly tripled from a 1976 average of $5,800 to $15,300 by 2022. Those transfers included child benefits, employment insurance benefits, and social assistance.

But it turns out that even without government programs, marriage and parenting are both financially rewarding endeavors. In 2022, According to Statistics Canada, the average individual “not in an economic family” earned just $53,400 from both market (i.e., earned) income and government support. That same year, couples earned $135,600 – an increase of around 51 percent over what they would have earned in 1976. And the average couple with children took $169,900 home. For comparison, single parents earned just $80,100.

Of course it’s possible that couples who happen to be wealthier are more likely consider themselves capable of raising children, so to some extent they’re self-selecting. And some singles feel unable to start families because of crazy housing costs. Nevertheless, it seems that marriage and, to a lesser degree, parenthood are important predictors of higher income.

Are government social support programs behind the imbalance? Not so much. The average couple in 2022 received $7,300 in benefits, but that’s significantly less than the $9,800 that the average singles (without kids) got. In fact, it’s also a lot less than the $10,400 childless couples would have received from the government in 1976.

It’s clearly earned income that’s driving the greater wealth of both couples as a whole and couples with children.

This isn’t a new development. Throughout the half century since 1976 – when you exclude government benefits – couples have out-earned singles by an average of 140 percent. And couples with children have earned an average of 12.5 percent more than couples in general.

The bottom line is that couples – both with and without children – earn significantly more than both single parents and singles living outside of a family unit. This economic reality has persisted through financial crises, evolving government policy standards, and social upheavals.

That knowledge could play a role in young peoples’ thinking as they plan their lives. But it’s also one of many reasons that we, as a society, should aggressively protect the integrity of the family as an institution. All things being equal, families lead to better outcomes.

This idea is something found in no less a source than the United Nation’s Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Article 16):

The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State.


There is something a bit strange about all this data that I can’t explain. between 1990 and 2004, the difference between total income of couples with children and total income of single parents was significantly greater than the years either before or since.

Many things happened in the early 90’s that might have triggered the growing disparity (like the introduction of the Canada Child Tax Benefit, increasing access to childcare, or a narrowing gender pay gap), but none of them suddenly stopped in 2004. And one could imagine similar social and policy changes that might have reduced the disparity after 2004 (like increased female workforce participation), but none of them really began in 2005.

That odd differential certainly looks real. But maybe it doesn’t mean anything. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Any thoughts to share?

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armed forces

How Much Dollar Value Does Our Military Deliver?

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David Clinton's avatar David Clinton

To my great surprise I recently noticed that, despite being deeply engaged in wars against at least four determined enemies, Israel doesn’t spend all that much more on their military than Canada does on its forces. What might that tell us about government efficiency?

There’s fairly universal agreement that Canada doesn’t spend enough on its military. But before we can even ask how much we should be spending, we should understand how much we’re already spending. And figuring that out isn’t nearly as easy as I’d expected.

According to the 2025–26 Expenditures by Purpose data released by the Treasury Board Secretariat, the Department of National Defence (DND) was allocated $35.7 billion (CAN). However, the New York Times recently reported that Primer Minister Carney’s $9.3 billion increase would bring the total defence-related spending to $62.7 billion – which suggests that, prior to the increase, we were set to spend $53.4 billion (CAN).

So I’ll work with both of those figures: $35.7 billion ($26 billion USD) and the pre-announcement $53.4 billion ($39 billion USD). By contrast, Israel currently spends around $37 billion (USD) on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) which is in the neighborhood of 18 percent of their total budget.¹ The IDF is (literally) getting a much bigger bang for their buck.²

I’m going to compare the military inventories of both countries to get a sense of what a dollar of government spending can get you. I understand that this isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison and there are many complicating factors here. But I think the exercise could lead us to some useful insights. First off, here’s a very rough estimate of existing inventories:

I’m sure there are plenty of caveats we could apply to those numbers, including how much of that equipment is actually fit for service on any given day. But they’ll have to do.

In addition, there are currently 68,000 regular troops in the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) along with 22,500 reserves, while the IDF employs 169,500 regular troops and 465,000 reserves. They also cost money.

Based on some very rough estimates,³ I’d assess the value of IDF assets at around 2.6 times the value of comparable CAF assets. That means that the IDF – using their procurement systems – would need to spend just $14.4 billion (USD) to purchase the equivalent of the current set of CAF assets.

Now compare that with our actual (pre-increase) expenditures of either $26 billion USD or $39 billion USD and it seems that we’re overspending by either 80 percent or 270 percent.

I think we’d be wise to wonder why that is.

1

For full context, Israel receives around $3.8 billion (USD) in military aid annually from the U.S.

2

Speaking of which, for simplicity, I completely left the ongoing costs of ordinance out of my calculations.

3

If you’re really interested, you can see my calculations here.

 

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David Clinton

Why Are Ontario’s Public Schools So Violent?

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The Audit David Clinton's avatar David Clinton

Ontario’s Auditor General just released a performance audit on the Toronto District School Board. I’m sure it’ll surprise exactly no one that “financial and capital resources are not consistently allocated in the most cost-effective or efficient way” or that “The effective management of operations was not always being measured and assessed for internal decision-making”.

And there was plenty of institutional chaos:

“Between 2017/18 and 2022/23…about 38% of TDSB schools did not report conducting the minimum number of fire drills required by the Ontario Fire Code annually, and about 31% of TDSB schools did not report conducting the minimum number of lockdown drills required by TDSB policy annually. The TDSB does not have an effective process to ensure the required number of drills are performed by each school, each year, or that they are performed in accordance with TDSB policy when performed.”

What else would you expect from a massive government bureaucracy that employs 40,000 people, spends $3.6 billion annually and – based on many of the highlighted items on their website – is laser-focused on pretty much anything besides education?

What you might not have seen coming was that around half of the report centered on in-school violence. To be sure, we’re told that there were only 407 violent events reported to the board during the 2022/2023 school year – which is a rate of around 17 events for every 10,000 students. 17:10,000 doesn’t exactly sound like an environment that’s spiraling out of control.

There was a caveat:

“Due to input errors by principals, the TDSB underreported the number of violent incidents that occurred between 2017/18 to 2021/22 to the Ministry by about 9%.”

Ok. But we’re still nowhere near Mad Max levels of violence. So what’s attracting so much of the auditor’s attention? Perhaps it’s got something to do with a couple of recent surveys whose results don’t quite match the board’s own records. Here’s how the audit describes the first of those:

“The 2022/23 TDSB Student and Parent Census was responded to by over 138,000 students, parents, guardians and caregivers. It showed that 23% of students in Grades 4 to 12 that responded to the survey said they were physically bullied (e.g., grabbed, shoved, punched, kicked, tripped, spat at), and about 71% stated they were verbally bullied (e.g., sworn at, threatened, insulted, teased, put down, called names, made fun of). Further, about 14% of student respondents indicated they had been cyberbullied. TDSB’s central tracking of all bullying incidents is much lower than this, suggesting that they are not centrally capturing a large number of bullying incidents that are occurring.”

“23% of students in Grades 4 to 12 that responded to the survey said they were physically bullied”. That’s not a great fit with that 17:10,000 ratio, even if you add the 9 percent of underreported incidents. And bear in mind that these students and their families were willing to discuss their experiences in a survey run by the school board itself, so it’s not like they’re hard to find.

But that’s not the worst of it. The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (ETFO) ran their own survey in 2023. They wanted to hear about their members’ experiences with workplace violence. Here, quoting from the audit report, is what TDSB respondents told them:

  • 42% had experienced physical force against themselves in 2022/23;
  • 18% had experienced more than 10 of these physical force incidents in 2022/23;
  • 81% indicated the number of violent incidents increased since they started working;
  • about 77% responded that violence was a growing problem at their school;
  • about 29% indicated they had suffered a physical injury;
  • 57% had suffered a psychological injury/illness (such as mental stress, psychological or emotional harm) as a result of workplace violence against them; and
  • about 85% indicated that violence at their school made teaching and working with students more difficult.

29 percent of teachers suffered a physical injury due to workplace violence. That’s elementary school teachers we’re talking about.

For perspective, even accounting for the 9 percent underreporting, the TDSB was aware of events impacting less than a quarter of a percentage point of their students (and apparently didn’t report any violence against teachers). But by their own accounts, 23 percent of all students and 42 percent of elementary teachers have suffered attacks. Are board officials willfully ignoring this stuff?

And if only there was some way to address violence and other criminal activities on school property. Perhaps – and I’m just spitballing here – there could even be people working in schools whose job it would be to (what’s the word I’m looking for?) police crime.

On a completely unrelated note, back in November, 2017, the Toronto District School Board voted 18-3 to permanently end their School Resource Officer (SRO) program. Since then, police officers have been unwelcome on board property.

To be sure, the TDSB has “accepted” all 18 of the report’s recommendations. But talk is cheap. Who’s to say that commitment won’t play out the same way we’ve seen with their fire drill compliance.

Can you spell “class action lawsuit”?

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