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International

In Taiwan’s election, voters refused to give in to Beijing’s relentless pressure

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From the MacDonald Laurier Institute

By J. Michael Cole

Beijing will no doubt regard the results of Saturday’s elections as a further affront to its nationalistic pride.

Amid unprecedented attention from the international community and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the people of Taiwan headed to the polls on Saturday to elect a new president and legislature. After months of intense campaigning and intimidation by China, Taiwanese voters elected to give the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) a third four-year term – the first time in the island nation’s democratic history that a party has remained in power for more than two consecutive terms.

Despite Beijing’s warning that a vote for the DPP candidate, Lai Ching-te, constituted a vote for “war,” the Taiwanese electorate chose continuity, with Mr. Lai vowing to continue the policies of President Tsai Ing-wen, who successfully navigated a difficult geopolitical environment over the past eight years. (Ms. Tsai will step down on May 20 after reaching her two-term limit.)

Wary of the Taiwan-centric DPP, Beijing has been relentless in its attempts to coerce Taiwan, both militarily and economically, and to isolate it from the international community while using various incentives to foster support for unification with the People’s Republic of China. Those efforts have been largely unsuccessful, and eight years on, Taiwan is arguably much more connected with the international community than it was under more Beijing-friendly governments.

Beijing will no doubt regard the results of Saturday’s elections as a further affront to its nationalistic pride, and we can therefore expect an intensification of its punitive measures at the economic and diplomatic level, as well as an intensification of its already highly destabilizing military activity around Taiwan. In response, the Lai administration will continue to strive to diversify its export destinations to further reduce its economic dependence in China, and, as one of the most vibrant democracies in the region, will remain an important partner to the U.S.-led community of democracies as it pushes back against resurgent authoritarianism. Under Ms. Tsai, Taiwan has played an important role as an example and promoter of liberal democracy, both within the region and abroad. Its government and vibrant civil society have expanded their footprint abroad, often helping other democracies, such as Canada, learn how to better balance their relationship with China so that trade and engagement does not come at the cost of corroded values and institutions.

While many domestic factors also weighed into who the Taiwanese decided to vote for in Saturday’s election, in which the DPP also lost its majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, their vote for Mr. Lai signalled a desire for Taiwan to continue to play a larger role on the international stage. While potentially reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait for some time, a victory by his two opponents would nevertheless have come at the cost of retrenchment on the international stage and greater focus on Taiwan’s relations with – and concessions to – China.

Still, despite ongoing efforts to modernize its military and develop a defence posture that is better suited to meet the challenge posed by the Chinese military, Taiwan’s ability to deter an invasion by the much more powerful People’s Liberation Army remains contingent on a U.S. commitment to its defence, as well as pressure from other countries making it clear to Beijing that any attempt to annex Taiwan by force and against the wishes of its 23.5 million people would come at an unacceptable cost.

Potential distractions caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine, the risks of a regional conflagration in the Middle East, an unpredictable North Korea and political instability in the U.S. could undermine American efforts to assist Taiwan and therefore embolden Beijing. The DPP’s loss of its majority in parliament could also complicate the new administration’s ability to secure the budgets it needs to fund defence modernization and foreign policy initiatives, which Beijing will no doubt seek to exploit.

There is every reason to believe that a Lai administration will build upon and continue to expand the course set by his predecessor. In the last eight years, Taiwan shone on the international stage, and consolidated its place as both a bastion of liberal-democratic values and an economic powerhouse whose technological prowess in fields such as semiconductors have positioned the country as an indispensable component of the global supply chain. And yet, this success story continues to be threatened by an authoritarian neighbour that rejects the reality that, whoever they vote for, the people of Taiwan categorically refuse to be ruled by Beijing. They cherish the freedom, democracy and way of life they have built over decades of arduous work. And they want their rightful place on the international stage.

J. Michael Cole is a Taipei-based senior fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa and a senior adviser on countering foreign authoritarian influence with the International Republican Institute. He is also a former analyst with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

International

LOCKED AND LOADED: Trump threatens U.S. response if Iran slaughters protesters

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President Trump warned Friday that the United States stands ready to act if Iran’s regime escalates its crackdown on protesters, saying America would “come to their rescue” should peaceful demonstrators be violently killed as unrest spreads across the country. Writing on Truth Social, Trump said, “If Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,” adding bluntly, “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.” His comments came as clashes between protesters and security forces erupted in multiple Iranian cities, leaving at least six people dead — the first confirmed fatalities since the latest wave of unrest intensified.

The demonstrations began as economic protests, driven by soaring prices, inflation, and a collapsing currency after years of sanctions tied to Iran’s nuclear program, but have quickly taken on a political edge. Shopkeepers in Tehran reportedly shut their doors in protest over economic stagnation, with similar actions and street demonstrations spreading into at least 15 cities, largely concentrated in western Iran. Iranian state media acknowledged deadly clashes in Lordegan and Azna, while state television reported that a member of Iran’s security forces was killed during unrest in Kouhdasht.

Tehran’s leadership responded sharply to Trump’s warning. Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s top security body, reportedly cautioned that U.S. involvement would “destabilize the entire region” and urged Trump to be “mindful of their soldiers’ safety.” Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, called Iran’s internal security a “red line,” warning that any American intervention would be met with a response. Even as Iranian officials attempt to strike a public tone of concern, the threat of force is unmistakable. President Masoud Pezeshkian described the protests over economic hardship as understandable and said Thursday that his government would “end up in hell” if it failed to fix the economy. At the same time, prosecutors and judiciary officials vowed zero tolerance. Lorestan prosecutor Ali Hasavand warned that participation in “illegal gatherings” or actions disturbing public order would be treated as crimes and punished “with the greatest firmness,” accusing “hostile individuals” of sowing chaos.

The unrest comes as Iran’s regional position appears weakened following setbacks to its allies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, adding to pressure on the regime at home. While the current demonstrations remain smaller than the massive 2022 protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini — which left hundreds dead — the echoes are unmistakable. Similar nationwide unrest in 2019 over fuel prices eventually evolved into open calls to overthrow Iran’s clerical rulers. Trump’s message, characteristically direct, places Tehran on notice: if the regime chooses mass bloodshed again, he says the United States will not look away.

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International

Maduro says he’s “ready” to talk

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Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro is striking a suddenly conciliatory tone toward Washington after a reported CIA drone strike targeted a cartel-linked docking area inside his country, claiming Caracas is now “ready” to negotiate with the United States on drug trafficking — and even dangling access to Venezuela’s oil sector as leverage.

In a sit-down interview recorded on New Year’s Eve with Spanish journalist Ignacio Ramonet and aired Thursday on state television, Maduro said the U.S. government has long known Venezuela is open to talks, insisting that if Washington wants a note-for-note agreement to combat narcotics flows, “we’re ready.”

He went further, suggesting that American energy firms could return in force, saying Venezuela is open to U.S. oil investment “whenever they want it, wherever they want it and however they want it,” explicitly referencing past dealings with Chevron.

The remarks come amid an aggressive U.S. pressure campaign that has seen at least 35 American strikes on suspected drug-smuggling vessels across the Caribbean and eastern Pacific since early September, operations U.S. officials say have killed more than 115 suspected traffickers.

Those actions are widely viewed as part of a broader effort to choke off cartel pipelines tied to the Maduro regime and destabilize a government Washington has long accused of functioning as a narco-state.

Last week’s strike — the first publicly acknowledged U.S. operation on Venezuelan soil since the maritime campaign began — was revealed by President Trump himself in a Dec. 26 radio interview, marking a sharp escalation.

Maduro refused to address the strike directly during the interview, saying only that he could “talk about it in a few days,” a silence that stood in contrast to his sudden eagerness to negotiate.

U.S. officials have been far less ambiguous. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in December that the current relationship with Caracas is “intolerable,” accusing the regime of actively partnering with terrorist organizations and criminal networks that threaten U.S. national interests.

Maduro, who is under U.S. indictment on charges including drug trafficking, money laundering, and corruption, is now signaling flexibility just as American pressure tightens — a familiar pattern for a regime that has often talked cooperation when cornered, only to revert once the heat eases.

Whether Washington sees this latest outreach as a genuine shift or another tactical feint remains an open question, but the timing suggests the message was less about diplomacy than survival.

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