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Ignore Ottawa’s talking points—Canada is a highly indebted country

Published

3 months ago

4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss

Canada falls 21 positions in international rankings after switching from net debt to gross debt, the largest change by far of any country.

The Trudeau government has claimed that Canada “continues to have an enviable fiscal and debt position relative to international peers” because we have the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7. But this is misleading. In reality, Canada is actually a highly indebted country relative to our international peers.

The government’s claim originates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which notes that Canada has the lowest level of net debt (as a share of its economy) among G7 countries including Germany, Italy, Japan, France, the United Kingdom and the United States. But this specific measure of debt subtracts financial assets from total government debt.

Here’s why that’s a problem.

Again, when calculating net debt, you subtract financial assets because you assume those assets could be used to offset debt. The glaring problem here is that Canada’s financial assets include the assets of Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Quebec Pension Plan (QPP), which substantially reduce Canada’s net debt. Indeed, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada, there were net assets of $716.7 billion in the combined CPP and QPP as of Dec. 31, 2023.

But the assets of the CPP and QPP are used for payments to existing and future retirees and can’t be used to offset government debt without compromising the ability of the CPP and QPP to provide benefits to retirees. So, Canada having the lowest net debt-to-GDP in the G7 doesn’t mean much when CPP and QPP assets are incorrectly used to make us look less indebted than we actually are.

Thankfully, there’s a much more accurate way to measure of Canada’s indebtedness—gross debt-to-GDP. Gross debt, according to the IMF, includes all “liabilities that require future payment of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor.” And extending the analysis to include a broader group of advanced countries provides a more accurate assessment of Canada’s comparative indebtedness.

According to a new study, among 32 industrialized countries, Canada slides from the 5th-lowest debt ranking when net debt is measured to 26th when gross debt is used. Further, Canada’s gross debt exceeds the total size of the national economy by nearly 5 percentage points. In other words, Canada falls 21 positions in international rankings after switching from net debt to gross debt, the largest change by far of any country.

The consequences of fiscal imprudence are clear. Just like households, governments must pay interest on debt. In 2024, Canada’s federal debt interest costs are expected to eclipse $54.0 billion—equal to the entire amount of revenue the government collects from the Goods and Services Tax (GST). And debt must be repaid by future generations of Canadians through tax increases or reduction in services.

When the Trudeau government claims that Canada is in an enviable position relative to our peers on government indebtedness, it is misleading Canadians. The data clearly show that Canada is among the most indebted advanced economies in the world. That’s not something to boast about.

Author:

Jake Fuss
Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

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Alberta’s fiscal update projects budget surplus, but fiscal fortunes could quickly turn

Published on November 21, 2024

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

According to the recent mid-year update tabled Thursday, the Smith government projects a $4.6 billion surplus in 2024/25, up from the $2.9 billion surplus projected just a few months ago. Despite the good news, Premier Smith must reduce spending to avoid budget deficits.

The fiscal update projects resource revenue of $20.3 billion in 2024/25. Today’s relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is helping finance today’s spending and maintain a balanced budget. But it will not last forever.

For perspective, in just the last decade the Alberta government’s annual resource revenue has been as low as $2.8 billion (2015/16) and as high as $25.2 billion (2022/23).

And while the resource revenue rollercoaster is currently in Alberta’s favor, Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledges that “risks are on the rise” as oil prices have dropped considerably and forecasters are projecting downward pressure on prices—all of which impacts resource revenue.

In fact, the government’s own estimates show a $1 change in oil prices results in an estimated $630 million revenue swing. So while the Smith government plans to maintain a surplus in 2024/25, a small change in oil prices could quickly plunge Alberta back into deficit. Premier Smith has warned that her government may fall into a budget deficit this fiscal year.

This should come as no surprise. Alberta’s been on the resource revenue rollercoaster for decades. Successive governments have increased spending during the good times of high resource revenue, but failed to rein in spending when resource revenues fell.

Previous research has shown that, in Alberta, a $1 increase in resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year (on a per-person, inflation-adjusted basis). However, a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.

Consider this: If this fiscal year the Smith government received an average level of resource revenue (based on levels over the last 10 years), it would receive approximately $13,000 per Albertan. Yet the government plans to spend nearly $15,000 per Albertan this fiscal year (after adjusting for inflation). That’s a huge gap of roughly $2,000—and it means the government is continuing to take big risks with the provincial budget.

Of course, if the government falls back into deficit there are implications for everyday Albertans.

When the government runs a deficit, it accumulates debt, which Albertans must pay to service. In 2024/25, the government’s debt interest payments will cost each Albertan nearly $650. That’s largely because, despite running surpluses over the last few years, Albertans are still paying for debt accumulated during the most recent string of deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21 (excluding 2014/15), which only ended when the government enjoyed an unexpected windfall in resource revenue in 2021/22.

According to Thursday’s mid-year fiscal update, Alberta’s finances continue to be at risk. To avoid deficits, the Smith government should meaningfully reduce spending so that it’s aligned with more reliable, stable levels of revenue.

Author:

Tegan Hill
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Alberta

Alberta fiscal update: second quarter is outstanding, challenges ahead

Published on November 21, 2024

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Alberta maintains a balanced budget while ensuring pressures from population growth are being addressed.

Alberta faces rising risks, including ongoing resource volatility, geopolitical instability and rising pressures at home. With more than 450,000 people moving to Alberta in the last three years, the province has allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to address these pressures and ensure Albertans continue to be supported. Alberta’s government is determined to make every dollar go further with targeted and responsible spending on the priorities of Albertans.

The province is forecasting a $4.6 billion surplus at the end of 2024-25, up from the $2.9 billion first quarter forecast and $355 million from budget, due mainly to higher revenue from personal income taxes and non-renewable resources.

Given the current significant uncertainty in global geopolitics and energy markets, Alberta’s government must continue to make prudent choices to meet its responsibilities, including ongoing bargaining for thousands of public sector workers, fast-tracking school construction, cutting personal income taxes and ensuring Alberta’s surging population has access to high-quality health care, education and other public services.

“These are challenging times, but I believe Alberta is up to the challenge. By being intentional with every dollar, we can boost our prosperity and quality of life now and in the future.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Midway through 2024-25, the province has stepped up to boost support to Albertans this fiscal year through key investments, including:

  • $716 million to Health for physician compensation incentives and to help Alberta Health Services provide services to a growing and aging population.
  • $125 million to address enrollment growth pressures in Alberta schools.
  • $847 million for disaster and emergency assistance, including:
    • $647 million to fight the Jasper wildfires
    • $163 million for the Wildfire Disaster Recovery Program
    • $5 million to support the municipality of Jasper (half to help with tourism recovery)
    • $12 million to match donations to the Canadian Red Cross
    • $20 million for emergency evacuation payments to evacuees in communities impacted by wildfires
  • $240 million more for Seniors, Community and Social Services to support social support programs.

Looking forward, the province has adjusted its forecast for the price of oil to US$74 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. It expects to earn more for its crude oil, with a narrowing of the light-heavy differential around US$14 per barrel, higher demand for heavier crude grades and a growing export capacity through the Trans Mountain pipeline. Despite these changes, Alberta still risks running a deficit in the coming fiscal year should oil prices continue to drop below $70 per barrel.

After a 4.4 per cent surge in the 2024 census year, Alberta’s population growth is expected to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2025, lower than the first quarter forecast of 3.2 per cent growth because of reduced immigration and non-permanent residents targets by the federal government.

Revenue

Revenue for 2024-25 is forecast at $77.9 billion, an increase of $4.4 billion from Budget 2024, including:

  • $16.6 billion forecast from personal income taxes, up from $15.6 billion at budget.
  • $20.3 billion forecast from non-renewable resource revenue, up from $17.3 billion at budget.

Expense

Expense for 2024-25 is forecast at $73.3 billion, an increase of $143 million from Budget 2024.

Surplus cash

After calculations and adjustments, $2.9 billion in surplus cash is forecast.

  • $1.4 billion or half will pay debt coming due.
  • The other half, or $1.4 billion, will be put into the Alberta Fund, which can be spent on further debt repayment, deposited into the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and/or spent on one-time initiatives.

Contingency

Of the $2 billion contingency included in Budget 2024, a preliminary allocation of $1.7 billion is forecast.

Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund

The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund grew in the second quarter to a market value of $24.3 billion as of Sept. 30, 2024, up from $23.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.

  • The fund earned a 3.7 per cent return from July to September with a net investment income of $616 million, up from the 2.1 per cent return during the first quarter.

Debt

Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast at $84 billion as of March 31, 2025, $3.8 billion less than estimated in the budget because the higher surplus has lowered borrowing requirements.

  • Debt servicing costs are forecast at $3.2 billion, down $216 million from budget.

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