Fraser Institute
Ignore climate-obsessed propagandists and enjoy your summer
![](https://www.todayville.com/edmonton/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/07/tvrd-fi-family-summer-image-2024-07-21.jpg)
From the Fraser Institute
Ah summer, a season we used to meet with joy. Outdoor parties, leisurely road trips, weekends at the beach, blazing barbecues by day, blazing bonfires by night. We used to sing paeans to the season—“Summertime, and the living is easy, fish are jumping and the cotton is high.”
But a strange thing has happened—the climate-obsessed folks have seized upon summer as a primary propaganda source and use it to demonize activities that might produce greenhouse gases. They don’t want your living to be easy. They want your coal or gas barbecues gone, your road trips gone, your air conditioning coolant weakened or gone, and so on. And every heatwave, every forest fire, every hint of drought, every reported case of heatstroke, and even observations of jumping catfish will be proof of a climate crisis where extreme weather will eventually kill us all.
But in a recent study, I found that the evidence of increases in extreme weather events in Canada and around the world is spotty and of limited quality, and often contradictory of the narrative.
First, what about wildfires? The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its latest climate report, only assigns “medium confidence” to the idea that climate change has actually caused increased “fire weather” in some regions on Earth.
Here at home, as average atmospheric temperatures have risen from 1970 to 2017, Canadian forest fires have actually declined sharply in number and show little obvious trend in areas burnt. As economist/professor Ross McKitrick observes: “Canadian forest fire data are available from the Wildland Fire Information System. Wildfires have been getting less frequent in Canada over the past 30 years. The annual number of fires grew from 1959 to 1990, peaking in 1989 at just over 12,000 that year, and has been trending down since. From 2017 to 2021 (the most recent interval available), there were about 5,500 fires per year, half the average from 1987 to 1991. The annual area burned also peaked 30 years ago. It grew from 1959 to 1990, peaking in 1989 at 7.6 million hectares before declining to the current average of 2.4 million hectares per year over 2017-21. And 2020 marked the lowest point on record with only 760,000 hectares burned.”
Well, but what about drought? According to an international research team, “In the vast majority of the world, trends in meteorological drought duration and magnitude are not statistically significant, with the exception of some small regions of Africa and South America, which is also where data uncertainty is greater.” The International Energy Agency (IEA) in a 2021 report suggests that drought severity in Canada from 2000 to 2020 was only slightly above the global average.
Well, but what about floods? The IPCC says floods have likely increased globally since 1950, but in Canada, at least, “there is a lack of detectable trends in observed annual maximum daily (or shorter duration) precipitation.”
So, summertime and the living is easy. Ignore the shrieks of the climate-obsessed about extreme weather coming for us all, and have some fun in the sun.
Author:
Automotive
Ottawa’s tariffs undercut Ottawa’s EV mandate
![](https://www.todayville.com/edmonton/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/tvrd-energynow-justin-trudeau-image-2024-01-30.jpg)
From the Fraser Institute
Asian countries such as China and Japan were not particular threats to prior automotive markets because North America’s massive and diverse internal combustion vehicle markets were capable of relatively lower-cost production of superior quality vehicles. That’s not shaping up to be the case for EVs, which are vastly more expensive coming off North American assembly lines than in China and other Asian countries.
Seemingly every week, Canada’s electric vehicle (EV) transition policy framework grows more incoherent. The goal of Canada’s EV policy is to ensure all new light-duty vehicle sales in Canada are zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), with a strong emphasis on battery-electric vehicles, by 2035.
The latest incoherence is Prime Minister Trudeau’s announcement of 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese EV imports and 25 per cent tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum imports (the Canada needs to build EVs). This will directly undercut the government’s EV transition targets by denying Canadians access to affordable electric cars.
The stated rationale for the tariffs is, according to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, that the “Chinese are trying to corner the North American EV market by dumping subsidized vehicles into it” and that “China has an intentional, state-directed policy of overcapacity and oversupply designed to cripple our own industry” so “we simply will not allow that to happen to our EV sector.” And arguably, some of that is probably reasonable.
Tariffs are generally understood as protectionist mechanisms, designed to shield domestic industries from lower-cost foreign competition by making imported goods more expensive. Additionally, they can serve as punitive measures to penalize countries for hostile economic or political actions. By limiting access to one’s markets, tariffs can reduce the profits of the targeted country, thereby pressuring it to alter behaviours or policies. When imposed against countries intentionally sabotaging markets, tariffs may be considered a legitimate response.
But tariffs on China will also hurt Canadians by keeping lower-cost goods out of our market, leaving them with only higher-priced goods and services provided by protected domestic industries that need not fear price competition and thus feel little pressure to lower the prices for their goods and services.
And this is part of the incoherence of the new Trudeau tariff policy. The Trudeau EV mandates are set to create, in essence, a monopoly on the types of automotive technologies (again, EVs) allowed to be used in Canada, which other countries can manufacture more cheaply than domestic manufacturers. Asian countries such as China and Japan were not particular threats to prior automotive markets because North America’s massive and diverse internal combustion vehicle markets were capable of relatively lower-cost production of superior quality vehicles. That’s not shaping up to be the case for EVs, which are vastly more expensive coming off North American assembly lines than in China and other Asian countries.
By driving up the costs of buying EVs in Canada, the Trudeau government will directly undercut its EVs-by-2035 mandate. If people can’t afford EVs, as most currently cannot, the EV mandate targets are doomed. People will simply hold their old internal-combustion vehicles for longer. This trend is already observable in the United States where new vehicles have become more expensive. Americans are holding on to their vehicles longer than ever, with the average vehicle age reaching 13.6 years.
The Trudeau government’s highest priority has been the war on climate change, which various government leaders in Canada and around the world have proclaimed the greatest threat to people and the planet in human history. But if the government is sincere about this, then the priority should be to maximize Canadians’ access to cheaper EVs, and the prime minister should be largely indifferent to where Canadians choose to source those EVs. Indeed, he should urgently want low-cost EVs available to Canadians for there to be any hope of achieving his all-EV by 2035 goal.
Author:
Economy
Historic decline in Canadian living standards officially reaches five-year mark
![](https://www.todayville.com/edmonton/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/04/tvrd-fi-people-taxpayers-canadians-image-2024-04-12.jpg)
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro
Indeed, according to a recent study, from the middle of 2019 to the end of 2023, GDP per person fell from $59,905 to $58,134—a 3.0 per cent drop over four and a half years.
On Friday, Statistics Canada released its estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024, which confirmed that despite growth in the overall economy, individual living standards for Canadians declined once again. As a result, the ongoing decline in Canadian living standards has officially reached the five-year mark.
GDP—the final value of all goods and services produced in the economy and the most widely used measure of overall economic activity—grew by 0.5 per cent from April to June of 2024 (after adjusting for inflation). But while the economy continues to grow in the aggregate, inflation-adjusted GDP per person—a broad measure of individual living standards that adjusts for population—actually fell by 0.1 per cent during the second quarter of 2024, down to $58,005.
In other words, while the overall economy is growing, individual living standards are falling. This apparent disconnect is due to Canada’s growing population, and the fact that the rate of economic growth is not fast enough to account for the amount the population has increased. Specifically, while the economy grew by 0.5 per cent from April to June of 2024, the total population grew by 0.6 per cent (or 242,673 people).
These data confirm that Canadians are still suffering a historic decline in living standards.
Indeed, according to a recent study, from the middle of 2019 to the end of 2023, GDP per person fell from $59,905 to $58,134—a 3.0 per cent drop over four and a half years. This was the second-longest and third-deepest decline in living standards since 1985, and was only exceeded in both respects by a decline that lasted more than five years (from June 1989 to September 1994).
Unfortunately for Canadians, this recent decline in living standards persisted through the first three months of 2024, and now the newest data show the decline has continued into the second quarter of 2024. Therefore, as of June 2024, inflation-adjusted GDP per person stood 3.2 per cent below the level it was in the middle of 2019. Again, despite a few brief quarters of positive per-person economic growth since 2019, the general decline in inflation-adjusted GDP has officially reached the five-year mark.
Due to the continued persistence of weak economic growth combined with remarkable population increases, Canadians have suffered a marked and prolonged decrease in living standards over the last five years. This puts Canada just six months away from experiencing the longest decline in individual living standards of the last 40 years—a milestone no one should be eager to reach.
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