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Growing the government won’t help Canada’s economy

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro and Alex Whalen

Empirical research suggests that economic growth is maximized when the size of government falls between 24 and 32 per cent of GDP. In other words, when governments spend in excess of this range, the economy will not grow as much as it would if government operated within that threshold

Canada is suffering from an economic growth crisis, and governments across the country should reassess their policies. Governments (particularly the federal government) have recently taken a more active role in the economy through increased spending and bureaucracy. However, policymakers must take a step back and recognize that growing government doesn’t lead to growth in the economy.

Canada’s economy has been stagnant for the last decade. From 2013 to 2022, per-person GDP (a broad measure of living standards) grew at its slowest pace since the 1930s, after accounting for inflation. And more recent data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2023, per-person GDP (inflation-adjusted) stood at $58,111—which is $51 per person lower than it was at the end of 2014. Simply put, Canadians have experienced a decade of dismal growth, and are now actually worse off than they were a decade ago.

During this time, many governments in Canada have adopted an approach of greater involvement in the economy and significantly higher spending. Take the federal government, for example.

Since 2014/15, the government has increased annual program spending (total spending minus debt interest) by roughly 75 per cent, from $256.3 billion to $448.2 billion in 2022/23. Moreover, the Trudeau government has recorded the five-highest years of federal spending in Canadian history, after accounting for population growth and inflation. Much of this spending has gone towards expanding  Ottawa’s role in the economy through increased transfers, business subsidies or new programs such as $10-a-day daycare and national dental care.

Provincial governments in QuebecNova Scotia and British Columbia (to name a few) have also recently reached historical highs in per-person program spending (even after excluding COVID-related spending). Simply put, governments across the country have been increasing spending and becoming more involved in the economy.

One way to measure the size of government, that allows for the comparison of jurisdictions over time, is known as total consolidated government spending as a share of GDP. This measure includes all spending at the local, provincial and federal levels in a jurisdiction and compares that level to the size of the economy.

According to a recent study, in 2022 (the latest year of available data) the size of government in Canada was 40.5 per cent of GDP compared to 38.2 per cent in 2014.

Among the provinces, total government spending ranged from 26.8 per cent of GDP in Alberta to 63.0 per cent of GDP in Nova Scotia. Compared to 2014, the size of government grew in eight of 10 provinces—only Prince Edward Island and B.C. experienced declines in government spending as a share of the economy. It’s also important to note that this is simply government spending. The true size of government, when accounting for things like regulation, is even larger.

Growing government matters because it influences economic growth. When the size of government is below a certain level, it lacks the resources to deliver services such as policing, courts or national defence—which are essential to a functioning economy. On the other hand, when government is too big it engages in activities best left to the free market and effectively crowds-out private-sector activity that contributes to economic growth. Therefore, when a government is too small or too big, economic growth (and consequently living standards) suffer.

Empirical research suggests that economic growth is maximized when the size of government falls between 24 and 32 per cent of GDP. In other words, when governments spend in excess of this range, the economy will not grow as much as it would if government operated within that threshold—all else equal. Based on the numbers presented above, it’s clear the vast majority of governments in Canada are too big. For nine of 10 provinces and the federal government, their spending exceeded 32 per cent of GDP in 2022.

As Canadians look for solutions to address a stagnating economy and falling living standards, governments should recognize that taking a more active role in the economy won’t solve the problem—and will likely make it worse.

Alberta

Pierre Poilievre – Per Capita, Hardisty, Alberta Is the Most Important Little Town In Canada

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From Pierre Poilievre

The tiny town of Hardisty, Alberta (623 people) moves $90 billion in energy a year—that’s more than the GDP of some countries.

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Business

Why it’s time to repeal the oil tanker ban on B.C.’s north coast

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The Port of Prince Rupert on the north coast of British Columbia. Photo courtesy Prince Rupert Port Authority

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Will Gibson

Moratorium does little to improve marine safety while sending the wrong message to energy investors

In 2019, Martha Hall Findlay, then-CEO of the Canada West Foundation, penned a strongly worded op-ed in the Globe and Mail calling the federal ban of oil tankers on B.C.’s northern coast “un-Canadian.”

Six years later, her opinion hasn’t changed.

“It was bad legislation and the government should get rid of it,” said Hall Findlay, now director of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

The moratorium, known as Bill C-48, banned vessels carrying more than 12,500 tonnes of oil from accessing northern B.C. ports.

Targeting products from one sector in one area does little to achieve the goal of overall improved marine transport safety, she said.

“There are risks associated with any kind of transportation with any goods, and not all of them are with oil tankers. All that singling out one part of one coast did was prevent more oil and gas from being produced that could be shipped off that coast,” she said.

Hall Findlay is a former Liberal MP who served as Suncor Energy’s chief sustainability officer before taking on her role at the University of Calgary.

She sees an opportunity to remove the tanker moratorium in light of changing attitudes about resource development across Canada and a new federal government that has publicly committed to delivering nation-building energy projects.

“There’s a greater recognition in large portions of the public across the country, not just Alberta and Saskatchewan, that Canada is too dependent on the United States as the only customer for our energy products,” she said.

“There are better alternatives to C-48, such as setting aside what are called Particularly Sensitive Sea Areas, which have been established in areas such as the Great Barrier Reef and the Galapagos Islands.”

The Business Council of British Columbia, which represents more than 200 companies, post-secondary institutions and industry associations, echoes Hall Findlay’s call for the tanker ban to be repealed.

“Comparable shipments face no such restrictions on the East Coast,” said Denise Mullen, the council’s director of environment, sustainability and Indigenous relations.

“This unfair treatment reinforces Canada’s over-reliance on the U.S. market, where Canadian oil is sold at a discount, by restricting access to Asia-Pacific markets.

“This results in billions in lost government revenues and reduced private investment at a time when our economy can least afford it.”

The ban on tanker traffic specifically in northern B.C. doesn’t make sense given Canada already has strong marine safety regulations in place, Mullen said.

Notably, completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion in 2024 also doubled marine spill response capacity on Canada’s West Coast. A $170 million investment added new equipment, personnel and response bases in the Salish Sea.

“The [C-48] moratorium adds little real protection while sending a damaging message to global investors,” she said.

“This undermines the confidence needed for long-term investment in critical trade-enabling infrastructure.”

Indigenous Resource Network executive director John Desjarlais senses there’s an openness to revisiting the issue for Indigenous communities.

“Sentiment has changed and evolved in the past six years,” he said.

“There are still concerns and trust that needs to be built. But there’s also a recognition that in addition to environmental impacts, [there are] consequences of not doing it in terms of an economic impact as well as the cascading socio-economic impacts.”

The ban effectively killed the proposed $16-billion Eagle Spirit project, an Indigenous-led pipeline that would have shipped oil from northern Alberta to a tidewater export terminal at Prince Rupert, B.C.

“When you have Indigenous participants who want to advance these projects, the moratorium needs to be revisited,” Desjarlais said.

He notes that in the six years since the tanker ban went into effect, there are growing partnerships between B.C. First Nations and the energy industry, including the Haisla Nation’s Cedar LNG project and the Nisga’a Nation’s Ksi Lisims LNG project.

This has deepened the trust that projects can mitigate risks while providing economic reconciliation and benefits to communities, Dejarlais said.

“Industry has come leaps and bounds in terms of working with First Nations,” he said.

“They are treating the rights of the communities they work with appropriately in terms of project risk and returns.”

Hall Findlay is cautiously optimistic that the tanker ban will be replaced by more appropriate legislation.

“I’m hoping that we see the revival of a federal government that brings pragmatism to governing the country,” she said.

“Repealing C-48 would be a sign of that happening.”

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