Business
GDP growth at a standstill in Canada, oil and gas sector one major bright spot – Conference Board of Canada
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Article submitted by the Conference Board of Canada
Muted Outlook for Canadian Economy
Consumer Spending Holding Strong Despite Confidence Being Weak
Despite the progress that has been made, inflation is still weighing down Canada’s economy according to new research from The Conference Board of Canada. In keeping with its previous forecast, real GDP growth will be at a virtual standstill for the rest 2023. For the year as a whole that means a 0.9 per cent gain, followed by only a modest 1.4 per cent improvement in 2024.
“Concerns about the U.S. financial system are unlikely to be mirrored in Canada given our country’s more concentrated banking system,” stated Ted Mallett, Director, Economic Forecasting at The Conference Board of Canada. “The indirect effects will be muted, and business investment was already expected to be weak in Canada so there is relatively little business lending to pull back.”
The global economy has slowed sharply over the past year as major central banks have increased interest rates, but despite the weak near-term growth anticipation, the chances of a severe global recession have receded. Inflation remains a threat, but two key developments provide reason for optimism. The first is the mild winter in Europe eased concerns of an energy crunch, with natural gas prices now lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The second is China’s removal of the zero-COVID policy, which saw their economy open at a much faster pace than anticipated.
The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations, with an expansion of 2.7 per cent in the final quarter of last year. Several factors should ensure that the coming slowdown in economic growth won’t be as severe as past slumps in economic activity. The major reason behind this view is the excess savings that households in America built up during the pandemic when the opportunity to spend was severely limited.
A slower U.S. economy will weigh on Canada’s trade results in the coming months, but the exports sector will still see a good showing in 2023, according to The Conference Board of Canada. Supply chain disturbances, which significantly restrained activity for many export sectors last year, have shown signs of easing over the past several months. A weak domestic economy, the depreciation of the loonie, and a steep decline in machinery and equipment investment will lead to muted activity for total real imports this year.
The oil and gas sector is a major bright spot in Canada thanks to strong corporate profits and ongoing projects in Western Canada and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Canada’s labour market has seen an impressive start to 2023, according to The Conference Board of Canada, which is being fuelled by an uptick in population growth. International migration to Canada has risen sharply in recent quarters, driven by record immigration targets and increased admissions of non-permanent residents, including temporary foreign workers.
Higher mortgage rates have slowed residential demand and unsurprisingly, the resale market has corrected with sales and prices decreasing. This downturn will frustrate some homeowners who bought at peak prices, while higher interest rates could severely impact some homeowners forced to renew mortgages at higher interest rates.
“While much of the COVID-19 support spending is now in the rear-view mirror, governments continue to have a heightened presence in the economy,” continued Mallett. “The pandemic brought about a new era of challenges to public finances, which were hardly looking rosy heading into the pandemic. The most notable question mark in today’s fiscal climate is how well governments can cope with new economic shocks.”
Business
Bad Research Still Costs Good Money
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I have my opinions about which academic research is worth funding with public money and which isn’t. I also understand if you couldn’t care less about what I think. But I expect we’ll all share similar feelings about research that’s actually been retracted by the academic journals where it was published.
Globally, millions of academic papers are published each year. Many – perhaps most – were funded by universities, charitable organizations, or governments. It’s estimated that hundreds of thousands of those papers contain serious errors, irreproducible results, or straight-up plagiarized or false content.
Not only are those papers useless, but they clog up the system and slow down the real business of science. Keeping up with the serious literature coming out in your field is hard enough, but when genuine breakthroughs are buried under thick layers of trash, there’s no hope.
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Society doesn’t need those papers and taxpayers shouldn’t have to pay for their creation. The trick, however, is figuring out how to identify likely trash before we approve a grant proposal.
I just discovered a fantastic tool that can help. The good people behind the Retraction Watch site also provide a large dataset currently containing full descriptions and metadata for more than 60,000 retracted papers. The records include publication authors, titles, and subjects; reasons for the retractions; and any institutions with which the papers were associated.
Using that information, I can tell you that 798 of those 60,000 papers have an obvious Canadian connection. Around half of those papers were retracted in the last five years – so the dataset is still timely.
There’s no single Canadian institution that’s responsible for a disproportionate number of clunkers. The data contains papers associated with 168 Canadian university faculties and 400 hospital departments. University of Toronto overall has 26 references, University of British Columbia has 18, and McMaster and University of Ottawa both have nine. Research associated with various departments of Toronto’s Sick Children’s Hospital combined account for 27 retractions.
To be sure, just because your paper shows up on the list doesn’t mean you’ve done anything wrong. For example, while 20 of the retractions were from the Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Canada, those were all pulled because they were out of date. That’s perfectly reasonable.
I focused on Canadian retractions identified by designations like Falsification (38 papers), Plagiarism (41), Results Not Reproducible (21), and Unreliable (130). It’s worth noting that some of those papers could have been flagged for more than one issue.
Of the 798 Canadian retractions, 218 were flagged for issues of serious concern. Here are the subjects that have been the heaviest targets for concerns about quality:
You many have noticed that the total of those counts comes to far more than 218. That’s because many papers touch on multiple topics.
For those of you keeping track at home, there were 1,263 individual authors involved in those 218 questionable papers. None of them had more than five such papers and only a very small handful showed up in four or five cases. Although there would likely be value in looking a bit more closely at their publishing histories.
This is just about as deep as I’m going to dig into this data right now. But the papers I’ve identified are probably just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to lousy (and expensive) research. So we’ve got an interest in identifying potentially problematic disciplines or institutions. And, thanks to Retraction Watch, we now have the tools.
Kyle Briggs over at CanInnovate has been thinking and writing about these issues for years. He suggests that stemming the crippling flow of bad research will require a serious realigning of the incentives that currently power the academic world.
That, according to Briggs, is most likely to happen by forcing funding agencies to enforce open data requirements – and that includes providing access to the programming code used by the original researchers. It’ll also be critical to truly open up access to research to allow meaningful crowd-sourced review.
Those would be excellent first steps.
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Business
DOGE asks all federal employees: “What did you do last week?”
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MxM News
Quick Hit:
Elon Musk said Saturday that all federal employees must submit a productivity report if they wish to keep their jobs. Employees received an email requesting details on what they accomplished in the past week, with failure to respond being treated as a resignation.
Key Details:
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Musk stated that federal employees must submit their reports by 11:59 p.m. on Monday or be considered as having resigned.
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Musk emphasized that the process should take under five minutes, stating that “an email with some bullet points that make any sense at all is acceptable.”
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FBI Director Kash Patel instructed agency employees not to comply with the request for now, stating that the bureau will handle reviews internally according to FBI procedures.
Diving Deeper:
Federal employees have been given a strict deadline to justify their jobs, as DOGE pushes for greater accountability within the government. The email came late Saturday, explaining that all federal workers would be required to submit a brief productivity report detailing their accomplishments from the previous week. Those who do not respond will be deemed to have resigned.
Musk framed the requirement as a minimal effort, writing on X that “the bar is very low.” He assured employees that simply providing bullet points that “make any sense at all” would suffice and that the report should take less than five minutes to complete.
The policy aligns with President Trump’s push for increased efficiency in government. The Office of Personnel Management confirmed the initiative, stating that agencies would determine any further steps following the reports. Meanwhile, FBI Director Kash Patel pushed back, advising bureau employees not to comply for the time being, stating that the FBI would handle its own review process.
The policy has drawn sharp criticism from the American Federation of Government Employees, which blasted Musk’s involvement, accusing him of disrespecting public servants. The union vowed to fight any terminations resulting from the initiative.
Musk also took aim at the White House’s Rapid Response account after it listed recent Trump administration actions, including expanding IVF access and cutting benefits for illegal immigrants. In response, Musk quipped that simply sending an email with coherent words was enough to meet the requirement, reiterating that expectations for the reports were low.
The directive comes as Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency seeks to eliminate waste across federal agencies, signaling a broader crackdown on bureaucratic inefficiencies under the Trump administration.
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