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Alberta

Fraser Institute says Albertans should get annual dividend to promote Heritage Fund

Published

8 months ago

5 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Joel Emes

An Alberta Dividend: The Key to Growing the Heritage Fund

If the government of Alberta wants to build the Heritage Fund over the longer term, it should start paying dividends to Albertans, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent non-partisan Canadian think-tank.

“The Alberta government has promised to ‘re-build’ the Heritage Fund, but it will require a consistent commitment over the long term,” said Tegan Hill, director of Alberta Policy at the Fraser Institute and co-author of An Alberta Dividend: The Key to Growing the Heritage Fund.

In 1976, the province established the Alberta’s Heritage Savings Trust Fund to save a share of the province’s resource revenues to provide ongoing benefits to Albertans. Since its creation, however, resource revenue contributions have only been made in 11 of 48 years of the fund’s existence and just 3.9 per cent of total resource revenue has been deposited to the fund over its lifetime.

Learning from Alaska’s success with its resource revenue savings fund—the Alaska Permanent Fund—the study proposes that Alberta should introduce a dividend to provincial residents to create public buy-in that generates political pressure to adhere to fiscal rules around the Heritage Fund’s operation—such as consistent resource
revenue contributions and inflation-proofing of the fund’s principal—to ensure its growth over time.

For perspective, the Permanent Fund was started the same year as Alberta’s Heritage Fund but has grown to US$78.0 billion in 2022/23—or C$88.6 billion—compared to a balance of just C$19.0 billion in Alberta’s Heritage Fund.

Using two alternatives based on Alaska, which includes mandatory 25 per cent resource revenue contributions and consistent inflation proofing of the fund’s principal, the Heritage Fund has the potential to pay each Albertan a total of $571 to $1,108 in dividends over the next three years—equivalent to $2,284 to $4,430 per family of four.

Under these rules, the Heritage Fund would be worth between $35.8 billion and $38.7 billion by 2026/27, while paying out between $2.9 billion to $5.5 billion in dividends to Albertans.

“As demonstrated in Alaska, by giving citizens an ownership share in the state’s resource fund, they demand that sound rules regarding the governance of the fund be adhered to.” said Hill.

  • The Smith government has promised to “re-build” the Heritage Fund so that eventually its earnings are significant enough to replace volatile resource revenue in the budget. While this is a worthy goal, it will require a long-term commitment.
  • Building on work from Hill, Emes, and Clemens (2021), this bulletin uses Alaska’s success with its resource revenue savings fund—the Alaska Permanent Fund—to demonstrate how the Smith government can introduce new fiscal rules to ensure growth in the Heritage Fund with a focus on the annual dividend.
  • As demonstrated in Alaska, by giving citizens ownership shares in the state resources, they recognize their vested interest and demand that the state maximizes returns from such resources. Put simply, by creating public buy-in, the dividend generates political pressure to enforce robust fiscal rules around the fund’s operation to ensure its growth.
  • Using two illustrative models based on the Alaska Permanent Fund, which includes mandatory 25 percent resource revenue contributions and consistent inflation proofing of the fund’s principal, each Albertan could be paid an estimated $148 to $297 in dividends in 2024/25, equivalent to $594 to $1,187 per family of four. From 2024/25 to 2026/27, each Albertan could receive a total of $571 to $1,108 in dividends, equivalent to $2,284 to $4,430 per family of four.
  • Under these rules, the Heritage Fund would be worth between $35.8 billion and $38.7 billion by 2026/27, while paying out between $2.9 billion to $5.5 billion in dividends to Albertans.

Authors:

Tegan Hill
Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute
Joel Emes
Senior Economist, Fraser Institute

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Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

Published on April 2, 2025

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Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

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Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

Published on April 2, 2025

By

From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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