From EnergyNow.Ca

By Susan McArthur

Canada is now among the top 10 countries with natural gas reserves. It’s time to take advantage of that

Canadians are starting to understand the Americans ate our breakfast, lunch and dinner when it comes to selling liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the global market while simultaneously undermining our national security.

They are finally waking up to the importance of the urgent request by oil and gas CEOs to all federal party leaders calling for the removal of legislation and regulation impeding and capping the development of our resources.

The LNG story in the United States is one of unprecedented growth, according to a recent Atlantic Council report by Daniel Yergin and Madeline Jowdy. Ten years ago, the U.S. did not export a single tonne of LNG. Today, U.S. exports account for 25 per cent of the global market and have contributed US$400 billion to its gross domestic product (GDP) over the past decade.

The U.S. is now the world’s largest LNG supplier, edging out Qatar and Australia, and according to Yergin and Jowdy, its export market is on track to contribute US$1.3 trillion to U.S. GDP by 2040 and create an average of 500,000 jobs annually.

Last week, Alberta announced a sixfold increase in its proven natural gas reserves to 130 trillion cubic feet (tcf). The new figures push Canada into the top 10 countries with natural gas reserves.

Unfortunately, notwithstanding this vast resource, Canada didn’t even make it to the LNG party and the Americans have been laughing all the way to the bank at Canada’s expense. Our decade-long anti-pipeline and natural resource agenda has cost us dearly and Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are a stake to the heart.

As the world grapples with global warming, natural gas is the perfect transition fuel. It generates half the CO2 emissions of coal, provides needed grid backup for intermittent renewable wind and solar power, and it is relatively easy to commission.

Canada has extensive natural gas reserves, but these reserves are less valuable if we can’t get them to offshore markets where countries will pay a premium for energy generation. Canadian gas is abundant, but, given our smaller market, typically trades at a discount to U.S. gas and a massive discount to European and Asian markets.

The capital-intensive nature of LNG facilities requires long-term supply contracts. Generally, 20-year supply contracts with creditworthy counterparties are required to secure the financing required to build gas infrastructure and liquefaction plants.

For example, as part of a larger strategic deal, Houston-based LNG company NextDecade Corp. signed a 20-year offtake agreement to supply 5.4 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to French multinational TotalEnergies SE.

As the market grows and matures, the spot market is gaining share, but term contracts continue to represent most of the market. This is a problem for Canada as it tries to break into the market, as much of current and future demand is already committed.

More than half the current LNG market demand, or 225 mtpa, is under contract until 2040, according to Shell PLC’s LNG outlook report for 2024. A further 100 mtpa is contracted to 2045. Shell recently revised its LNG market growth forecast upward to 700 mtpa by 2040 and it estimates the LNG supply currently in operation or under construction already accounts for about 525 mtpa, or almost 75 per cent of the estimated market in 2040.

Even if Canada secured 100 per cent of the available market share (impossible), this represents a fraction of the 130 trillion cubic feet of reserves in Alberta and an infinitesimal amount of Canada’s natural gas reserve.

If Canada wants to sell its LNG to the global market, it needs to be at the starting line now. Canada has seven LNG export projects in various stages of development. They are all in British Columbia. The capacity of these export plants is 50 mtpa and the capital cost is estimated to be $110 billion.

After significant delays and cost overruns, our first export facility, LNG Canada’s 14 mtpa Phase 1 in Kitimat, is set to ship its first cargo to Asia later this year. Phase 2, representing a further 14 mtpa, is still awaiting a final investment decision. The Cedar LNG, Ksi Lisims LNG and Woodfibre LNG projects are licensed, at various stages of development and represent a further 17 mtpa.

Canada’s LNG exports today are a drop in the bucket compared to both our potential and the 88 mtpa exported by the U.S. in 2024. We have one project completed and, if history repeats itself and Canada doesn’t get its act together, the runway for the remaining licensed projects will be long, painful and costly.

Financing large capital projects requires predictability with respect to timing and cost. This is also a problem for Canada. As the oil and gas CEOs have pointed out, LNG market players have lost trust in Canada as an investible jurisdiction for these projects.

In the face of Trump’s trade war, Canadians have become pipeline evangelists. Wishful thinking and political talking points won’t be enough if we repeat our decade of own goals on this file. We have literally left billions on the table.

Governments should fast-track all licensed projects, limit special interest distractions and provide the required muscle and financial support to get these projects up and running as soon as possible.

From Churchill, Man., to Quebec to the Maritimes to British Columbia, we should be making plans for LNG terminals and the required pipeline infrastructure to get this valuable and clean resource to market. And Canadians should pray we haven’t totally missed the market.

Susan McArthur is a former venture capital investor, investment banker and current corporate director. She has previously served on a chemical logistics and oil service board.

News release from the Conservative Part of Canada

Poilievre Announces ‘Canada Shovel Ready Zones,’ to Bring Home Jobs, Energy And Sovereignty

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre revealed his plan to create ‘Canada Shovel Ready Zones.’ These zones will be areas already permitted for construction, meaning the permits will not just take less time, but will already be completed when a company decides to build a mine, LNG terminal or pipeline, bringing home thousands of jobs for Canadian workers and taking back control of our economy from the Americans.

Poilievre described how his Canada First Conservative Government will get the Canada Shovel Ready Zones done:

1. Identify a location that makes sense for a power station, LNG plant, pipeline, or another major project.
2. Make sure it is safe for Canadians and the environment.
3. Work with other levels of government to lock down zoning and permits in advance of construction.
4. Offer pre-permitting before even getting an application so that permits could be published online with a checklist that businesses would have to complete in order to protect nature and people.

This means businesses could buy the land, move in, hire people and build, knowing they already have the permits.

“Think of an area that is perfect for liquifying and exporting gas,” said Poilievre. “We would publish a permit online, with normal safety and environment requirements. Then, companies can come in immediately and begin building and hiring local First Nations and other Canadians to generate paycheques. This would also allow us to ship Canadian energy off to Europe, breaking European dependence on Russian gas, while turning dollars for dictators into paycheques for our people.”

Canada should be the richest country in the world. But after a lost Liberal decade, government gatekeepers have been allowed to block projects that bring paycheques to our people. It takes more than 17 years to get the average mine approved and built in Canada. We have the second slowest permits in the OECD. In the first 5 years of this Liberal government, $176 billion of resource and energy projects were cancelled, mostly due to government obstacles and rules.

These projects would have made us more self-reliant and less dependent on the United States. But Liberal red tape and gatekeepers have forced Canadians into a position where the U.S. gets 97% of our oil exports and 100% of our natural gas exports. Worse still, the Americans rip our country off. They pay US$63 a barrel for our oil, while the world price is US$76 a barrel.

One example is the Northern Gateway, which would have brought Canadian oil from Alberta to the Pacific for sale in Asia. Justin Trudeau vetoed it—a decision Mark Carney endorsed while his company bought pipelines in the Middle East and Asia. Radical “keep-it-in-the-ground” Liberal ideology opposes Canada’s resources, while supporting dirty, foreign oil.

“A Common Sense Conservative Government will unleash $100s of billions of dollars in power plants, nuclear energy, mines, pipelines, data centres and much more,” said Poilievre. “You will see hard-working and talented Canadian workers going around, earning big paycheques. Welders, boilermakers, pipefitters, miners, and factory workers will be able to spend those paycheques at local businesses. The economy will boom and we will be less reliant on the Americans.”