Business
Federal government’s capital gains tax hike is worse than you think
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro
Following the recent plunge in Canadian and U.S. stock markets, many Canadians likely saw a sharp decline in the value of their investments. Yet as Canadians reckon with this sudden change, other factors help reduce the return on their investments—namely, higher capital gains taxes.
When an investor sells a capital asset (i.e. stocks) for a higher price than they originally bought it, they realize a capital gain. Prior to this year, investors would pay tax on 50 per cent of any gain (based on their highest marginal personal income tax rate), but the Trudeau government recently increased that inclusion rate to 66.7 per cent for capital gains above $250,000.
This increase will cause economic damage and increase taxes for many middle-class Canadians—despite being framed by the government as a tax increase on the wealthy. And the effect is even more harmful than it first appears because capital gains taxes don’t adjust for inflation.
Inflation, the general rise in the prices of goods and services in the economy, erodes the purchasing power of money. For example, if a basket of goods costs $100 in Year 1, and annual inflation is 4 per cent, that exact same basket would cost $104 in Year 2. The Bank of Canada maintains a target inflation rate of 2 per cent per year, but in recent years the rate has well-exceeded that target.
From 2021 to 2023, Canada experienced an average annual inflation rate of 4.7 per cent. And though inflation is easing and fell to 2.5 per cent last month, by the end of this year prices are still expected to be 17.5 per cent higher than they were in 2020. For comparison, prices increased 6.7 per cent from 2016 to 2020.
While inflation erodes the purchasing power of one dollar, it also erodes the returns people receive from their investments. If an asset increases in value by 5 per cent over one year, but inflation is 4 per cent, the asset’s real value has increased by just 1 percentage point. In other words, of the total 5 per cent gain, 4 percentage points are the “inflationary” gain while 1 percentage point is the “real” gain.
Which takes us back to the Trudeau government’s tax hike on capital gains. Unlike income thresholds for federal personal income taxes, which are adjusted to account for inflation, capital gains taxes don’t distinguish between “inflationary” and “real” gains. Therefore, even if a realized capital gain is solely inflationary—meaning there’s no increase in real wealth—the federal government will still levy the same amount of tax as it would if there was no inflation at all.
This is what’s happening right now. After years of high inflation, inflationary gains represent a significant share of the capital gains Canadians are currently realizing. For example, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2023, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (Canada’s benchmark stock market index) increased 22.6 per cent. However, after adjusting for inflation (a cumulative 14.7 per cent), that 22.6 per cent represents a real gain of less than 8.0 per cent. As such, a large portion of revenue the Trudeau government expects to generate from raising capital gains taxes will originate from inflationary gains rather than actual increases in asset values.
As Canadians struggle with a weak economy, the Trudeau government’s recent capital gains tax hike will only add to the problem. But after years of high inflation, the effect is even worse than you might think.
Authors:
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By Thomas English
President Donald Trump’s Monday executive order establishing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) presents a more modest scope for the initiative, focusing primarily on “modernizing federal technology and software.”
The executive order refashions the Obama-era United States Digital Service (USDS) into the United States DOGE Service. Then-President Barack Obama created USDS in 2014 to enhance the reliability and usability of online federal services after the disastrous rollout of HealthCare.gov, an insurance exchange website created through the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Trump’s USDS will now prioritize “modernizing federal technology and software to maximize efficiency and productivity” under the order, which makes no mention of slashing the federal budget, workforce or regulations — DOGE’s originally advertised purpose.
“I am pleased to announce that the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (‘DOGE’),” Trump said in his official announcement of the initiative in November. “Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess government regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies.”
The order’s focus on streamlining federal technology and software stands in contrast to some of DOGE’s previously more expansive aims, including Elon Musk’s claim that “we can [cut the federal budget] by at least $2 trillion” at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally in November. Musk now leads DOGE alone after Vivek Ramaswamy stepped down from the initiative Monday, apparently eying a 2026 gubernatorial run in Ohio.
The order says it serves to “advance the President’s 18-month DOGE agenda,” but omits many of the budget-cutting and workforce-slashing proposals during Trump’s campaign. Rather, the order positions DOGE as a technology modernization entity rather than an organization with direct authority to enact sweeping fiscal reforms. There is no mention, for instance, of trillions in budget cuts or a significant reduction in the federal workforce, though the president did separately enact a hiring freeze throughout the executive branch Monday.
“I can’t help but think that there’s more coming, that maybe more responsibilities will be added to it,” Susan Dudley, a public policy professor at George Washington University, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. Dudley, who was also the top regulatory official in former President George W. Bush’s administration, said the structure of the new USDS could impact the recent lawsuits against the DOGE effort.
“I think it maybe moots the lawsuit that’s been brought for it not being FACA,” Dudley said. “So if this is how it’s organized — that it’s people in the government who bring in these special government employees on a temporary basis, that might mean that the lawsuit doesn’t really have any ground.”
Three organizations — the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), National Security Counselors (NSC) and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) — separately filed lawsuits against DOGE within minutes of Trump signing the executive order. The suits primarily challenge DOGE’s compliance with the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA), alleging the department operates without the required transparency, balanced representation and public accountability.
The order also emphasizes not “be construed to impair or otherwise affect … the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.”
“And the only mention of OMB [Office of Management and Budget] is some kind of boilerplate at the end — that it doesn’t affect that. But that’s kind of general stuff you often see in executive orders,” Dudley continued, adding she doesn’t “have an inside track” on whether further DOGE-related executive orders will follow.
“It’s certainly, certainly more modest than I think Musk was anticipating,” Dudley said.
Trump’s order also establishes “DOGE Teams” consisting of at least four employees: a team lead, a human resources specialist, an engineer and an attorney. Each team will be assigned an executive agency with which it will implement the president’s “DOGE agenda.”
It remains unclear whether Monday’s executive order comprehensively defines DOGE, or if additional orders will be forthcoming to broaden its mandate.
From Conservative Party Communications
The Hon. Pierre Poilievre, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the Official Opposition, released the following statement on the threat of tariffs from the US:
“Canada is facing a critical challenge. On February 1st we are facing the risk of unjustified 25% tariffs by our largest trading partner that would have damaging consequences across our country. Our American counterparts say they want to stop the illegal flow of drugs and other criminal activity at our border. The Liberal government admits their weak border is a problem. That is why they announced a multibillion-dollar border plan—a plan they cannot fund because they shut down Parliament, preventing MPs and Senators from authorizing the funds.
“We also need retaliatory tariffs, something that requires urgent Parliamentary consideration.
“Yet, Liberals have shut Parliament in the middle of this crisis. Canada has never been so weak, and things have never been so out of control. Liberals are putting themselves and their leadership politics ahead of the country. Freeland and Carney are fighting for power rather than fighting for Canada.
“Common Sense Conservatives are calling for Trudeau to reopen Parliament now to pass new border controls, agree on trade retaliation and prepare a plan to rescue Canada’s weak economy.
“The Prime Minister has the power to ask the Governor General to cut short prorogation and get our Parliament working.
“Open Parliament. Take back control. Put Canada First.”
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