Federal government should listen to Canadians and restrain spending in upcoming budget

The Trudeau government has repeatedly demonstrated a proclivity to increase spending and run deficits. Recent polling data shows that most Canadians are not in favour of this approach. When it tables its next budget on April 16, the government should listen to Canadians, restrain spending and provide a concrete plan to balance the budget.

The Trudeau government has increased spending substantially since taking office in 2015. When comparing the levels of inflation-adjusted, per-person program spending under every prime minister, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has overseen the five-highest years of spending in the country’s history—even when COVID-related spending is excluded. Unsurprisingly, this proclivity to spend has resulted in eight consecutive deficits from 2015/16 to 2022/23, with another six planned from 2023/24 to 2028/29.

These eight years of borrowing have contributed to an $867.2 billion (or 82.0 per cent) increase in total gross government debt since 2014/15. Not only does this represent hundreds of billions that must be paid back by future generations, this debt run-up has also imposed significant costs on taxpayers through rising interest payments. In 2023/24, interest costs on federal government debt will reach a projected $46.5 billion—meaning more taxpayer dollars will go towards servicing debt than child-care benefits ($31.2 billion).

Again, while the Trudeau government was originally elected on the promise of higher spending for infrastructure and temporary deficits, recent polling data shows that Canadians are not happy with this approach—62.9 per cent of Canadians want the Trudeau government to cut spending. Conversely, less than a quarter (24.6 per cent) of respondents want the government to continue as planned (8.7 per cent want further increases in spending).

Of the respondents that feel the government should cut spending, 60.1 per cent want to use the savings to repay debt while 39.9 per cent want tax cuts. Debt reduction or tax relief would be a welcome development. But how much would the federal government need to cut spending to be in a position to balance the budget in the near future?

A recent study shows the federal government could simply limit the growth in annual program spending to 0.3 per cent for two years and balance the budget by 2026/27. In other words, the government could grow annual program spending by $2.9 billion from 2024/25 to 2026/27 and still balance the budget.

This is not to say the government wouldn’t face tough decisions in determining how to limit spending growth, and which areas of spending to target, but there’s a clear path to budget balance if the government wants to respect the wishes of most Canadians. And there are clear areas of spending where savings could be found.

For example, corporate welfare (i.e. government subsidies to businesses). Federal business subsidies nearly doubled from $6.5 billion in 2019 to $11.2 billion in 2022, yet research shows that they do little to promote economic growth and may actually harm the economy. Reducing or eliminating corporate welfare would help restrain overall spending.

After nearly a decade of growing spending and continuous deficits, Canadians have expressed a desire for the federal government to finally change its approach to fiscal policy. Through restrained spending there’s a clear path to a balanced budget that brings opportunities for debt reduction or tax relief—a path the Trudeau government can choose in its upcoming budget.

Authors:

Grady Munro and Jake Fuss

Related Topics:#2024Budget #FederalBudget #FederalDebt #FederalDeficit #FraserInstitute #GovernmentSpending #GradyMunro #JakeFuss

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Opposition leader Poilievre calling for end of prorogation to deal with Trump’s tariffs

Published on January 21, 2025

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From Conservative Party Communications

The Hon. Pierre Poilievre, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the Official Opposition, released the following statement on the threat of tariffs from the US:

“Canada is facing a critical challenge. On February 1st we are facing the risk of unjustified 25% tariffs by our largest trading partner that would have damaging consequences across our country. Our American counterparts say they want to stop the illegal flow of drugs and other criminal activity at our border. The Liberal government admits their weak border is a problem. That is why they announced a multibillion-dollar border plan—a plan they cannot fund because they shut down Parliament, preventing MPs and Senators from authorizing the funds.

“We also need retaliatory tariffs, something that requires urgent Parliamentary consideration.

“Yet, Liberals have shut Parliament in the middle of this crisis. Canada has never been so weak, and things have never been so out of control. Liberals are putting themselves and their leadership politics ahead of the country. Freeland and Carney are fighting for power rather than fighting for Canada.

“Common Sense Conservatives are calling for Trudeau to reopen Parliament now to pass new border controls, agree on trade retaliation and prepare a plan to rescue Canada’s weak economy.

“The Prime Minister has the power to ask the Governor General to cut short prorogation and get our Parliament working.

“Open Parliament. Take back control. Put Canada First.”

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Trump, taunts and trade—Canada’s response is a decade out of date

Published on January 21, 2025

Todayville

From the Fraser Institute

By Ross McKitrick

Canadian federal politicians are floundering in their responses to Donald Trump’s tariff and annexation threats. Unfortunately, they’re stuck in a 2016 mindset, still thinking Trump is a temporary aberration who should be disdained and ignored by the global community. But a lot has changed. Anyone wanting to understand Trump’s current priorities should spend less time looking at trade statistics and more time understanding the details of the lawfare campaigns against him. Canadian officials who had to look up who Kash Patel is, or who don’t know why Nathan Wade’s girlfriend finds herself in legal jeopardy, will find the next four years bewildering.

Three years ago, Trump was on the ropes. His first term had been derailed by phony accusations of Russian collusion and a Ukrainian quid pro quo. After 2020, the Biden Justice Department and numerous Democrat prosecutors devised implausible legal theories to launch multiple criminal cases against him and people who worked in his administration. In summer 2022, the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago and leaked to the press rumours of stolen nuclear codes and theft of government secrets. After Trump announced his candidacy in 2022, he was hit by wave after wave of indictments and civil suits strategically filed in deep blue districts. His legal bills soared while his lawyers past and present battled well-funded disbarment campaigns aimed at making it impossible for him to obtain counsel. He was assessed hundreds of millions of dollars in civil penalties and faced life in prison if convicted.

This would have broken many men. But when he was mug-shotted in Georgia on Aug. 24, 2023, his scowl signalled he was not giving in. In the 11 months from that day to his fist pump in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump managed to defeat and discredit the lawfare attacks, assemble and lead a highly effective campaign team, knock Joe Biden off the Democratic ticket, run a series of near daily (and sometimes twice daily) rallies, win over top business leaders in Silicon Valley, open up a commanding lead in the polls and not only survive an assassination attempt but turn it into an image of triumph. On election day, he won the popular vote and carried the White House and both Houses of Congress.

It’s Trump’s world now, and Canadians should understand two things about it. First, he feels no loyalty to domestic and multilateral institutions that have governed the world for the past half century. Most of them opposed him last time and many were actively weaponized against him. In his mind, and in the thinking of his supporters, he didn’t just defeat the Democrats, he defeated the Republican establishment, most of Washington including the intelligence agencies, the entire corporate media, the courts, woke corporations, the United Nations and its derivatives, universities and academic authorities, and any foreign governments in league with the World Economic Forum. And it isn’t paranoia; they all had some role in trying to bring him down. Gaining credibility with the new Trump team will require showing how you have also fought against at least some of these groups.

Second, Trump has earned the right to govern in his own style, including saying whatever he wants. He’s a negotiator who likes trash-talking, so get used to it and learn to decode his messages.

When Trump first threatened tariffs, he linked it to two demands: stop the fentanyl going into the United States from Canada and meet our NATO spending targets. We should have done both long ago. In response, Trudeau should have launched an immediate national action plan on military readiness, border security and crackdowns on fentanyl labs. His failure to do so invited escalation. Which, luckily, only consisted of taunts about annexation. Rather than getting whiny and defensive, the best response (in addition to dealing with the border and defence issues) would have been to troll back by saying that Canada would fight any attempt to bring our people under the jurisdiction of the corrupt U.S. Department of Justice, and we will never form a union with a country that refuses to require every state to mandate photo I.D. to vote and has so many election problems as a result.

As to Trump’s complaints about the U.S. trade deficit with Canada, this is a made-in-Washington problem. The U.S. currently imports $4 trillion in goods and services from the rest of the world but only sells $3 trillion back in exports. Trump looks at that and says we’re ripping them off. But that trillion-dollar difference shows up in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts as the capital account balance. The rest of the world buys that much in U.S. financial instruments each year, including treasury bills that keep Washington functioning. The U.S. savings rate is not high enough to cover the federal government deficit and all the other domestic borrowing needs. So the Americans look to other countries to cover the difference. Canada’s persistent trade surplus with the U.S. ($108 billion in 2023) partly funds that need. Money that goes to buying financial instruments can’t be spent on goods and services.

So the other response to the annexation taunts should be to remind Trump that all the tariffs in the world won’t shrink the trade deficit as long as Congress needs to borrow so much money each year. Eliminate the budget deficit and the trade deficit will disappear, too. And then there will be less money in D.C. to fund lawfare and corruption. Win-win.