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Federal government out of touch with economic reality in Canada

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3 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

In light of recent comments from federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland about the supposed “vibecession” infecting the brains of Canadians, it’s time to set the record straight. It’s not just that people don’t feel good about the economy, the economic wellbeing of Canadians has been declining for years.

Firstly, it’s true that the overall economy is growing and inflation has been brought back down to the Bank of Canada’s 2 per cent target. While these are positive signs—especially considering the alternative of a shrinking overall economy and rising inflation—they do not necessarily mean that Canadians are better off.

Gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services produced in the economy—is the most widely used measure of overall economic prosperity. But measuring it in “aggregate” doesn’t tell us about the individual living standards of Canadians. To gauge how individual Canadians are actually doing, we measure GDP per person (and adjust for inflation). And on this measure, the data tell a different story.

From the middle of 2019 to the end of 2023, Canada experienced one of the worst declines in inflation-adjusted GDP per person of the last 40 years. According to new data from Statistics Canada, this decline in living standards has continued for most of 2024, and as of September 2024, GDP per person ($58,601) was 2.2 per cent lower than in June 2019 ($59,905). Simply put, Canadians have suffered a marked decline in living standards over five years.

And while GDP per person is a broad measure of individual prosperity, other measures tell a similar story.

According to a recent study published by the Fraser Institute, median earnings (i.e. wages and salaries) of workers were lower in every Canadian province than in every U.S. state in 2022 (the latest year of available data). In other words, workers in Canada’s highest-earning province (Alberta) earned less than workers in the lower-earning U.S. states such as Louisiana and Mississippi.

Moreover, Canada’s private-sector employment has stagnated. From 2019 to 2023 (the latest year of available data), employment in the private sector (including self-employment) grew by 3.6 per cent compared to 13.0 per cent in the government sector. And that’s a problem. The private sector pays for the government sector, primarily through taxes. While a growing private sector helps drive wealth-creation in the economy, a growing government sector extracts that wealth and redistributes it elsewhere or even inhibits that wealth-creation in the first place.

Despite data showing that private-sector employment and living standards have stagnated and/or declined for years, the Trudeau government insists that everything is fine and Canadians just “feel” worse off. Clearly, this government is out of touch with economic reality.

Jake Fuss

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

Business

Trump confirms 35% tariff on Canada, warns more could come

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Quick Hit:

President Trump on Thursday confirmed a sweeping new 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1, citing Canada’s failure to curb fentanyl trafficking and retaliatory trade actions.

Key Details:

  • In a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said the new 35% levy is in response to Canada’s “financial retaliation” and its inability to stop fentanyl from reaching the U.S.
  • Trump emphasized that Canadian businesses that relocate manufacturing to the U.S. will be exempt and promised expedited approvals for such moves.
  • The administration has already notified 23 countries of impending tariffs following the expiration of a 90-day negotiation window under Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade policy.

Diving Deeper:

President Trump escalated his tariff strategy on Thursday, formally announcing a 35% duty on all Canadian imports effective August 1. The move follows what Trump described as a breakdown in trade cooperation and a failure by Canada to address its role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis.

“It is a Great Honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship,” Trump wrote to Prime Minister Mark Carney. He added that the tariff response comes after Canada “financially retaliated” against the U.S. rather than working to resolve the flow of fentanyl across the northern border.

Trump’s letter made clear the tariff will apply broadly, separate from any existing sector-specific levies, and included a warning that “goods transshipped to evade this higher Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff.” The president also hinted that further retaliation from Canada could push rates even higher.

However, Trump left the door open for possible revisions. “If Canada works with me to stop the flow of Fentanyl, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter,” he said, adding that tariffs “may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship.”

Canadian companies that move operations to the U.S. would be exempt, Trump said, noting his administration “will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely — In other words, in a matter of weeks.”

The U.S. traded over $762 billion in goods with Canada in 2024, with a trade deficit of $63.3 billion, a figure Trump called a “major threat” to both the economy and national security.

Speaking with NBC News on Thursday, Trump suggested even broader tariff hikes are coming, floating the idea of a 15% or 20% blanket rate on all imports. “We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay,” he told Meet the Press moderator Kristen Welker, adding that “the tariffs have been very well-received” and noting that the stock market had hit new highs that day.

The Canadian announcement is part of a broader global tariff rollout. In recent days, Trump has notified at least 23 countries of new levies and revealed a separate 50% tariff on copper imports.

“Not everybody has to get a letter,” Trump said when asked if other leaders would be formally notified. “You know that. We’re just setting our tariffs.”

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Business

Trump slaps Brazil with tariffs over social media censorship

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From LifeSiteNews

By Dan Frieth

In his letter dated July 9, 2025, addressed to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Trump ties new U.S. trade measures directly to Brazilian censorship.

U.S. President Donald Trump has launched a fierce rebuke of Brazil’s moves to silence American-run social media platforms, particularly Rumble and X.

In his letter dated July 9, 2025, addressed to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Trump ties new U.S. trade measures directly to Brazilian censorship.

He calls attention to “SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms,” pointing out that Brazil’s Supreme Court has been “threatening them with Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market.”

A formal letter dated July 9, 2025, from The White House addressed to His Excellency Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, President of the Federative Republic of Brazil, discussing opposition to the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and announcing a 50% tariff on Brazilian products entering the United States due to alleged unfair trade practices and censorship issues, with a note on efforts to ease trade restrictions if Brazil changes certain policies.

A typed letter from Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America, discussing tariffs related to Brazil, digital trade issues, and a Section 301 investigation, signed with his signature.

Trump warns that these actions are “due in part to Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans,” and states: “starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge Brazil a Tariff of 50% on any and all Brazilian products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs.” He also adds that “Goods transshipped to evade this 50% Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff.”

Brazil’s crackdown has targeted Rumble after it refused to comply with orders to block the account of Allan dos Santos, a Brazilian streamer living in the United States.

On February 21, 2025, Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered Rumble’s suspension for non‑compliance, saying it failed “to comply with court orders.”

Earlier, from August to October 2024, Moraes had similarly ordered a nationwide block on X.

The court directed ISPs to suspend access and imposed fines after the platform refused to designate a legal representative and remove certain accounts.

Elon Musk responded: “Free speech is the bedrock of democracy and an unelected pseudo‑judge in Brazil is destroying it for political purposes.”

By linking censorship actions, particularly those targeting Rumble and X, to U.S. trade policy, Trump’s letter asserts that Brazil’s judiciary has moved into the arena of foreign policy and economic consequences.

The tariffs, he makes clear, are meant, at least in part, as a response to Brazil’s suppression of American free speech.

Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Brazil for censoring American platforms may also serve as a clear signal to the European Union, which is advancing similar regulatory efforts under the guise of “disinformation” and “online safety.”

With the EU’s Digital Services Act and proposed “hate speech” legislation expanding government authority over content moderation, American companies face mounting pressure to comply with vague and sweeping takedown demands.

By framing censorship as a violation of U.S. free speech rights and linking it to trade consequences, Trump is effectively warning that any foreign attempt to suppress American voices or platforms could trigger similar economic retaliation.

Reprinted with permission from Reclaim The Net.

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