Economy
Federal government estimates don’t reflect true costs of national pharmacare

From the Fraser Institute
By Grady Munro and Mackenzie Moir
By borrowing to fund national pharmacare, the government can temporarily conceal the direct cost to Canadians, but Canadians inevitably must pay for this spending through higher taxes—something polling on national pharmacare suggests is a deal-breaker for many.
According to a new report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO), the price tag for the Trudeau government’s national pharmacare program is already expected to exceed the government’s original estimate. And the program will likely continue to grow more expensive.
In mid-April, the government reported the “first phase” of national pharmacare would cost $1.5 billion over five years, starting in 2024/25. For this first phase, which would “expand and enhance” existing public coverage of contraception and diabetes medications, the federal government must negotiate with each province and territory regarding the implementation of national coverage.
Yet just one month after the federal government released its cost estimate, the PBO now reports that this phase of national pharmacare will cost $1.9 billion over five years. In other words, before Ottawa has negotiated any deals with the provinces, the expected costs of national pharmacare have already increased by approximately $400 million.
It should come as no surprise. Since February, when the government and the federal NDP struck their pharmacare deal, the government has failed to acknowledge the program’s true costs. By borrowing to fund national pharmacare, the government can temporarily conceal the direct cost to Canadians, but Canadians inevitably must pay for this spending through higher taxes—something polling on national pharmacare suggests is a deal-breaker for many.
It’s also important to remember this is the first phase of national pharmacare, and the Trudeau government likely plans to further expand coverage to a list of “essential prescription drugs and related products.” Consequently, according to previous PBO estimates, costs of the fully-implemented program may reach $13.4 billion in annual federal and provincial spending by 2027/28.
Crucially, the cost estimates by both the federal government and the PBO fail to account for how Canadians and insurance organizations might respond to national pharmacare.
For example, in their most recent estimates they assume that nobody already covered by some type of drug insurance plan (this was 81 per cent of Canadians in 2019) will switch to the new national plan, or that no public or private insurers will adjust or renegotiate their plans. For Canadians previously insured privately but switch to the national plan, pharmacare will shift some portion of the costs currently borne by private providers onto the federal government. This will further increase the program’s price tag, which again is ultimately paid by taxpayers.
As the Trudeau government continues to implement national pharmacare, Canadians should be aware that current cost estimates don’t accurately reflect the true costs of the program. A larger-than-expected bill for Canadians is more than likely.
Authors:
Business
Canada may escape the worst as Trump declares America’s economic independence with Liberation Day tariffs

MxM News
Quick Hit:
On Wednesday, President Trump declared a national emergency to implement a sweeping 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, calling it a “Declaration of Economic Independence.” Trump said the tariffs would revitalize the domestic economy, declaring that, “April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn.”
Key Details:
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The baseline 10% tariff will take effect Saturday, while targeted “reciprocal” tariffs—20% on the EU, 24% on Japan, and 17% on Israel—begin April 9th. Trump also imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods, as well as on all foreign-made cars and auto parts, effective early Thursday.
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Trump justified the policy by citing foreign trade restrictions and long-standing deficits. He pointed to policies in Australia, the EU, Japan, and South Korea as examples of protectionist barriers that unfairly harm American workers and industries.
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The White House estimates the 10% tariff could generate $200 billion in revenue over the next decade. Officials say the added funds would help reduce the federal deficit while giving the U.S. stronger leverage in negotiations with countries running large trade surpluses.
Diving Deeper:
President Trump on Wednesday unveiled a broad new tariff policy affecting every imported product into the United States, marking what he described as the beginning of a new economic era. Declaring a national emergency from the White House Rose Garden, the president announced a new 10% baseline tariff on all imports, alongside steeper country-specific tariffs targeting longstanding trade imbalances.
“This is our Declaration of Economic Independence,” Trump said. “Factories will come roaring back into our country — and you see it happening already.”
The tariffs, which take effect Saturday, represent a substantial increase from the pre-Trump average U.S. tariff rate and are part of what the administration is calling “Liberation Day” for American industry. Reciprocal tariffs kick in April 9th, with the administration detailing specific rates—20% for the European Union, 24% for Japan, and 17% for Israel—based on calculations tied to bilateral trade deficits.
“From 1789 to 1913, we were a tariff-backed nation,” Trump said. “The United States was proportionately the wealthiest it has ever been.” He criticized the establishment of the income tax in 1913 and blamed the 1929 economic collapse on a departure from tariff-based policies.
To underscore the move’s long-anticipated nature, Trump noted he had been warning about unfair trade for decades. “If you look at my old speeches, where I was young and very handsome… I’d be talking about how we were being ripped off by these countries,” he quipped.
The president also used the moment to renew his push for broader economic reforms, urging Congress to eliminate federal taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits. He also proposed allowing Americans to write off interest on domestic auto loans.
Critics of the plan warned it could raise prices for consumers, noting inflation has already risen 22% under the Biden administration. However, Trump pointed to low inflation during his first term—when he imposed more targeted tariffs—as proof his strategy can work without sparking runaway costs.
White House officials reportedly described the new baseline rate as a guardrail against countries attempting to game the system. One official explained the methodology behind the reciprocal tariffs: “The trade deficit that we have with any given country is the sum of all trade practices, the sum of all cheating,” adding that the tariffs are “half of what they could be” because “the president is lenient and he wants to be kind to the world.”
In addition to Wednesday’s sweeping changes, Trump’s administration recently imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods tied to fentanyl smuggling and another 25% on steel and aluminum imports—revoking previous carve-outs for countries like Brazil and South Korea. Future tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and raw materials such as copper and lumber are reportedly under consideration.
Trump closed his remarks with a message to foreign leaders: “To all of the foreign presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, ambassadors… I say, ‘Terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers.’” He declared April 2nd “the day America’s destiny was reclaimed” and promised, “This will indeed be the golden age of America.”
2025 Federal Election
Three cheers for Poilievre’s alcohol tax cut

By Franco Terrazzano
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation applauds Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre’s commitment to end and reverse the alcohol escalator tax.
“Poilievre just promised major alcohol tax cuts and taxpayers will cheers to that,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Poilievre’s tax cut will save Canadians money every time they have a cold one with a buddy or enjoy a glass of Pinot with their better half and it will give Canadians brewers, distillers and wineries a fighting chance against tariffs.”
Today, federal alcohol taxes increased by two per cent, costing taxpayers about $40 million this year, according to Beer Canada.
Poilievre announced a Conservative government “will axe the escalator tax on wine, beer and spirits back to 2017 levels, ending the automatic annual tax increases.”
The alcohol escalator tax has automatically increased excise taxes on beer, wine and spirits every year, without a vote in Parliament, since 2017. The alcohol escalator tax has cost taxpayers more than $900 million since being imposed, according to Beer Canada.
Taxes from multiple levels of government account for about half of the price of alcohol.
Meanwhile, tariffs are hitting the industry hard. Brewers have described the tariffs as “Armageddon for craft brewing.”
“Automatic tax hikes are undemocratic, uncompetitive and unaffordable and they need to stop,” Terrazzano said. “If politicians think Canadians aren’t paying enough tax, they should at least have the spine to vote on the tax increase.
“Poilievre is right to end the escalator tax and all party leaders should commit to making life more affordable for Canadian consumers and businesses by ending the undemocratic alcohol tax hikes.”
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