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Canadian Energy Centre

European governments are reassessing EU-directed green policies amid public unease

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Shawn Logan

How ‘greenlash’ is forcing Europe to scale back ambitious net zero policies

European governments are beginning to sound the retreat on some foundational net zero policies in the wake of “greenlash” from increasingly overburdened citizens.  

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted European governments to begin pivoting away from cheap Russian natural gas, which Europe increasingly relied on to backstop a laundry list of ambitious green policies. 

But despite pledges by the European Union to “divest away from Russian gas as quickly as possible,” nearly 15% of overall EU gas imports still came from Russia in the first half of 2023, while the amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from Russia actually increased by 39.5% compared to the same period in 2021, prior to the Ukraine invasion. 

Energy security and affordability have become central issues for Europeans amid a persistent global energy crisis, and that’s translated into a rethink of what had once seemed like unassailable green policies across Europe. 

Here’s a look at how some countries are dealing with the new global reality: 

Germany 

Nothing is more symbolic of Europe’s retreat from its net zero ambitions than Germany seeing a wind farm dismantled to make room for the expansion of a lignite coal mine just outside of Dusseldorf. 

And no European country has been more affected by the changing energy landscape than Germany, which introduced its multi-billion dollar Energiewende program in 2010, calling for a broad phaseout of fossil fuels and nuclear power, replacing them primarily with wind and solar power. 

Today, without cheap and reliable natural gas backups due to sanctions against Russia, Germany has gone from Europe’s economic powerhouse to the world’s worst performing major developed economy, facing “deindustrialization” due to skyrocketing energy costs. 

In addition to extending its deadline for shutting down coal plants until 2024, the German government has also scrapped plans for imposing tougher building insulation standards to reduce emissions as well as extending the deadline on controversial legislation to phase out oil and gas heating systems in homes, a decision the government admits will make it impossible to reach the country’s 2030 emissions targets. 

A major car manufacturer, Germany’s opposition to an EU-wide ban on the sale of new combustion vehicles by 2035 softened the legislation to allow exceptions for those that run on e-fuels. 

Germany’s quest for reliable energy exports prompted Chancellor Olaf Scholz to travel to Canada to make a personal appeal for Canadian LNG. He was sent home empty handed, advised there wasn’t a strong business case for the resource. 

Great Britain 

Britons have grown increasingly concerned about the cost of net zero policies, despite being largely supportive of striving for a greener future. 

YouGov poll in August found while 71% generally favoured Great Britain’s aim to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, some 55% agreed that policies should only be introduced if they don’t impose any additional costs for citizens. Only 27% agreed reaching the goal was important enough to warrant more spending. 

That shift in public sentiment prompted Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to pump the brakes on some key policies enacted to reach the U.K.’s legally binding target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. 

In September, the government delayed its looming ban on new gas- and diesel-powered cars by five years to 2035, while also extending its phaseout of gas boilers in homes and suggesting exemptions for certain households and types of property. 

“If we continue down this path, we risk losing the British people and the resulting backlash would not just be against specific policies, but against the wider mission itself,” Sunak said of the potential consequences of maintaining strict net zero policies. 

The U.K. government also gave the green light for hundreds of new North Sea oil and gas licences, citing the need to bolster both energy security and the nation’s economy.  

France 

France’s net zero ambitions enjoy an advantage compared to its European peers due in large part to its significant fleet of nuclear power stations, which provide around 70 per cent of its electricity. 

However, President Emmanuel Macron has often opted for a more pragmatic approach to reaching climate targets, noting any energy transition can’t leave citizens disadvantaged. 

“We want an ecology that is accessible and fair, an ecology that leaves no one without a solution,” Macron said in September after ruling out a total ban on gas boilers, instead offering incentives to those looking to replace them with heat pumps. 

Macron also famously dropped a proposed fuel tax in 2018 that sparked sweeping yellow vest protests across France when it was announced.  

France has also extended the timeframe of its two remaining coal plants to continue operating until 2027, five years later than the plants were originally set to be shuttered. 

Italy 

Feeling the impacts of the global energy crisis, Italy has begun reassessing some of its previous commitments to transition goals. 

Earlier this year, Italy pushed back on EU directives to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, which Italy’s national building association warned would cost some $400 billion euros over the next decade, with another $190 billion euros needed to ensure business properties met the required standards. The Italian government has called for exemptions and longer timelines. 

Italy also warned the European Commission it would only support the EU’s phase out of combustion engine cars if it allows cars running on biofuels to eclipse the deadline, while further questioning a push to slash industrial emissions 

Paolo Angelini, deputy governor at the Bank of Italy, warned a rapid abandonment of fossil fuel-driven industries could have a devastating impact. 

“If everybody divests from high-emitting sectors there will be a problem because if the economy does not adjust at the same time, things could blow up unless a miracle happens in terms of new technology,” he said. 

Poland 

Like Italy, Poland has dug in its heels against some EU net zero initiatives, and is actually suing the EU with the goal of overturning some of its climate-focused legislation in the courts. 

“Does the EU want to make authoritarian decisions about what kind of vehicles Poles will drive and to increase energy prices in Poland? The Polish Government will not allow Brussels to dictate,” wrote Polish Climate and Environment Minister Anna Moskwa on X, formerly known as Twitter, in July. 

In addition to looking to scrap the EU’s ban on combustion engine cars by 2035, Warsaw is also challenging laws around land use and forestry, updated 2030 emissions reduction targets for EU countries, and a border tariff on carbon-intensive goods entering the European Union. 

With some 70% of its electricity generated by coal, Poland is one of Europe’s largest users of coal. And it has no designs on a rapid retreat from the most polluting fossil fuel, reaching an agreement with trade unions to keep mining coal until 2049. 

Netherlands 

The political consequences of leaning too far in on net zero targets are beginning to be seen in the Netherlands. 

In March, a farmer’s protest party, the BBB or BoerBurgerBeweging (Farmer-Citizen Movement), shook up the political landscape by capturing 16 of 75 seats in the Dutch Senate, more than any other party, including the ruling coalition of the Labor and Green Parties. 

The upstart party was formed in 2019 in response to government plans to significantly reduce nitrogen emissions from livestock by 2030, a move estimated to eliminate 11,200 farms and force another 17,600 farmers to significantly reduce their livestock. 

What followed were nationwide protests that saw supermarket distribution centres blockaded, hay bales in flames and manure dumped on highways. 

In November, Dutch voters will elect a new national government, and while BBB has dropped to fifth in polling, much of that support has been picked up by the fledgling New Social Contract (NSC), which has vowed to oppose further integration with EU policies, a similar stance offered by the BBB. The NSC currently tops the polls ahead of the Nov. 22 election. 

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Alberta

U.S. tariffs or not, Canada needs to build new oil and gas pipeline space fast

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Grady Semmens

Expansion work underway takes on greater importance amid trade dispute

Last April, as the frozen landscape began its spring thaw, a 23-kilometre stretch of newly built pipeline started moving natural gas across northwest Alberta.

There was no fanfare when this small extension of TC Energy’s Nova Gas Transmission Limited (NGTL) system went online – adding room for more gas than all the homes in Calgary use every day.

It’s part of the ongoing expansion of the NGTL system, which connects natural gas from British Columbia and Alberta to the vast TC Energy network. In fact, one in every 10 molecules of natural gas moved across North America touches NGTL.

With new uncertainty emerging from Canada’s biggest oil and gas customer – the United States – there is a rallying cry to get new major pipelines built to reach across Canada and to wider markets.

Canada’s Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson recently said the country should consider building a new west-east oil pipeline following U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs, calling the current lack of cross-country pipelines a “vulnerability,” CBC reported.

“I think we need to reflect on that,” Wilkinson said. “That creates some degree of uncertainty. I think, in that context, we will as a country want to have some conversations about infrastructure that provides greater security for us.”

Many industry experts see the threat to Canada’s economy as a wake-up call for national competitiveness, arguing to keep up the momentum following the long-awaited completion of two massive pipelines across British Columbia over the last 18 months. Both of which took more than a decade to build amidst political turmoil, regulatory hurdles, activist opposition and huge cost overruns.

On May 1, 2024, the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) started delivering crude oil to the West Coast, providing a much-needed outlet for Alberta’s growing oil production.

Several months before that, TC Energy finished work on the 670-kilometre Coastal Gaslink pipeline, which provides the first direct path for Canadian natural gas to reach international markets when the LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat begins operating later this year.

TMX and Coastal GasLink provide enormous benefits for the Canadian economy, but neither are sufficient to meet the long-term growth of oil and gas production in Western Canada.

More oil pipeline capacity needed soon     

TMX added 590,000 barrels per day of pipeline capacity, nearly tripling the volume of crude reaching the West Coast where it can be shipped to international markets.

In less than a year, the extra capacity has enabled Canadian oil production to reach all-time highs of more than five million barrels per day.

More oil reaching tidewater has also shrunk the traditional discount on Alberta’s heavy oil, generating an extra $10 billion in revenues, while crude oil exports to Asia have surged from $49 million in 2023 to $3.6 billion in 2024, according to ATB analyst Mark Parsons.

With oil production continuing to grow, the need for more pipeline space could return as soon as next year, according to analysts and major pipeline operators.

Even shortly after TMX began operation, S&P Global analysts Celina Hwang and Kevin Birn warned that “by early 2026, we forecast the need for further export capacity to ensure that the system remains balanced on pipeline economics.”

Pipeline owners are hoping to get ahead of another oil glut, with plans to expand existing systems already underway.

Trans Mountain vice-president Jason Balasch told Reuters the company is looking at projects that could add up to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of capacity within the next five years.

Meanwhile, Canada’s biggest oil pipeline company is working with Alberta’s government and other customers to expand its major export pipelines as part of the province’s plan to double crude production in the coming years.

Enbridge expects it can add as much as 300,000 bpd of capacity out of Western Canada by 2028 through optimization of its Mainline system and U.S. market access pipelines.

Enbridge spokesperson Gina Sutherland said the company can add capacity in a number of ways including system optimizations and the use of so-called drag reducing agents, which allow more fluid to flow by reducing turbulence.

LNG and electricity drive strong demand for natural gas

Growing global demand for energy also presents enormous opportunities for Canada’s natural gas industry, which also requires new transportation infrastructure to keep pace with demand at home and abroad.

The first phase of the LNG Canada export terminal is expected to begin shipping 1.8 billion cubic feet of gas per day (Bcf/d) later this year, spurring the first big step in an expected 30 per cent increase in gas production in Western Canada over the next decade.

With additional LNG projects in development and demand increasing, the spiderweb of pipes that gathers Alberta and B.C.’s abundant gas supplies need to continue to grow.

TC Energy CEO Francois Poirier is “very bullish” about the prosect of building a second phase of the recently completed Coastal GasLink pipeline connecting natural gas in northeast B.C. to LNG terminals on the coast at Kitimat.

The company is also continuously expanding NGTL, which transports about 80 per cent of Western Canada’s production, with more than $3 billion in growth projects planned by 2030 to add another 1 Bcf/d of capacity.

Meanwhile Enbridge sees about $7 billion in future growth opportunities on its natural gas system in British Columbia.

In addition to burgeoning LNG exports from Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, TC Energy sees huge potential for gas to continue replacing coal-fired electricity generation, especially as a boom in power-hunger data centres unfolds.

With such strong prospects for North America’s highly integrated energy system, Poirier recently argued in the Wall Street Journal that leaders should be focused on finding common ground for energy in the current trade dispute.

“Our collective strength on energy provides a chance to expand our economies, advance national security and reduce global emissions,“ he wrote in a Feb. 3 OpEd.

“By working together across North America and supporting the free flow of energy throughout the continent, we can achieve energy security, affordability and reliability more effectively than any country could achieve on its own.”

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Alberta

Alberta extracting more value from oil and gas resources: ATB

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Will Gibson

Investment in ‘value-added’ projects more than doubled to $4 billion in 2024

In the 1930s, economist Harold Innis coined the term “hewers of wood and drawers of water” to describe Canada’s reliance on harvesting natural resources and exporting them elsewhere to be refined into consumer products.

Almost a century later, ATB Financial chief economist Mark Parsons has highlighted a marked shift in that trend in Alberta’s energy industry, with more and more projects that upgrade raw hydrocarbons into finished products.

ATB estimates that investment in projects that generate so-called “value-added” products like refined petroleum, hydrogen, petrochemicals and biofuels more than doubled to reach $4 billion in 2024.

Alberta is extracting more value from its natural resources,” Parsons said.

“It makes the provincial economy somewhat more resilient to boom and bust energy price cycles. It creates more construction and operating jobs in Alberta. It also provides a local market for Alberta’s energy and agriculture feedstock.”

The shift has occurred as Alberta’s economy adjusts to lower levels of investment in oil and gas extraction.

While overall “upstream” capital spending has been rising since 2022 — and oil production has never been higher — investment last year of about $35 billion is still dramatically less than the $63 billion spent in 2014.

Parsons pointed to Dow’s $11 billion Path2Zero project as the largest value-added project moving ahead in Alberta.

​​The project, which has support from the municipal, provincial and federal governments, will increase Dow’s production of polyethylene, the world’s most widely used plastic.

By capturing and storing carbon dioxide emissions and generating hydrogen on-site, the complex will be the world’s first ethylene cracker with net zero emissions from operations.

Other major value-added examples include Air Products’ $1.6 billion net zero hydrogen complex, and the associated $720 million renewable diesel facility owned by Imperial Oil. Both projects are slated for startup this year.

Parsons sees the shift to higher value products as positive for the province and Canada moving forward.

“Downstream energy industries tend to have relatively high levels of labour productivity and wages,” he said.

“A big part of Canada’s productivity problem is lagging business investment. These downstream investments, which build off existing resource strengths, provide one pathway to improving the country’s productivity performance.”

Heather Exner-Pirot, the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s director of energy, natural resources and environment, sees opportunities for Canada to attract additional investment in this area.

“We are able to benefit from the mistakes of other regions. In Germany, their business model for creating value-added products such as petrochemicals relies on cheap feedstock and power, and they’ve lost that due to a combination of geopolitics and policy decisions,” she said.

“Canada and Alberta, in particular, have the opportunity to attract investment because they have stable and reliable feedstock with decades, if not centuries, of supply shielded from geopolitics.”

Exner-Pirot is also bullish about the increased market for low-carbon products.

“With our advantages, Canada should be doing more to attract companies and manufacturers that will produce more value-added products,” she said.

Like oil and gas extraction, value-added investments can help companies develop new technologies that can themselves be exported, said Shannon Joseph, chair of Energy for a Secure Future, an Ottawa-based coalition of Canadian business and community leaders.

“This investment creates new jobs and spinoffs because these plants require services and inputs. Investments such as Dow’s Path2Zero have a lot of multipliers. Success begets success,” Joseph said.

“Investment in innovation creates a foundation for long-term diversification of the economy.”

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