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Economy

Canadians weary after years of brutal inflation

Published

3 weeks ago

4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

The last four-plus years have been a rollercoaster for millions of Canadians. The pandemic, which began in early 2020, quickly led to mass layoffs (most temporary) and widespread disruptions to normal life. This was accompanied by hiccups in often-fragile global supply chains, subsequently aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine war. In response to these developments, governments and central banks provided unprecedented amounts of fiscal and monetary “stimulus” over the course of 2020-21.

All of this set the stage for skyrocketing inflation and a cost-of-living crisis in many countries. As in most peer jurisdictions, inflation and living costs jumped in Canada, beginning in late-2021 and accelerating throughout 2022. Faced with the highest inflation in four decades, the Bank of Canada belatedly responded with dramatic interest rate hikes in 2022 and the first half of 2023. The central bank’s abrupt shift to a restrictive monetary policy pummelled the economy by dampening private-sector spending and real estate activity. Economic growth slowed to a crawl in 2023 and has continued to lag in 2024. The labour market has also softened, with job growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising.

The good news is that victory is in sight for the Bank of Canada’s quest to bring inflation back to its official 2 per cent target. In recent months, year-over-year increases in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices for goods and services, have been running comfortably below 3 per cent compared to close to 7 per cent a couple of years ago, and inflation slowed to 2.5 per cent in July. With inflation mostly tamed, the central bank has started to lower its short-term policy interest rate, from 5 per cent in May 2024 to 4.5 per cent today. Further cuts are expected.

It’s worth summarizing how the inflation “scare” has affected the prices Canadians now pay for goods and services.

From January 2020 to June 2024, cumulative inflation amounted to 18 per cent. This captures the combined increase in prices for the hundreds of individual items in the CPI. The price of “shelter” has risen faster than prices in general. Since January 2020, the shelter component of the CPI has climbed by one-quarter. Shelter costs include rents, mortgage payments, residential fuel, electricity and water charges.

Food prices have also been on a tear. Since January 2020, the food component of the Consumer Price Index has increased by 24 per cent. According to the latest Canadian inflation report, food inflation has dropped to 2.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis, but consumers are still struggling with sticker shock at the grocery store.

The cost of transportation—a category which includes gasoline—has also marched higher, up by more than one-fifth since early 2020.

It’s clear many Canadians have been hurt by the 2021-24 inflation surge. A Statistics Canada survey conducted a few months ago found that 45 per cent of respondents reported difficulty meeting day-to-day expenses, a far bigger share than two years earlier. Those on fixed incomes and younger people striving to form separate households have been hardest hit. Meanwhile, workers whose pay hasn’t kept pace with above-normal inflation have seen their purchasing power diminish. All of this has soured the public mood and put incumbent governments on the defensive.

Fortunately, the evidence suggests that inflation will soon return to the official 2 per cent target. This should ease recent cost-of-living pressures and help bolster flagging consumer and business confidence in Canada. It can’t happen soon enough.

Author:

Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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Feds blow $2.7 million on global film festivals

Published on September 19, 2024

By

From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

Author: Franco Terrazzano 

At the 2024 Cannes Film Festival in France, bureaucrats spent $9,930 on “umbrella stand coordinator services”

The Trudeau government blew more than $2.7 million on high-profile film and music festivals around the world, where they made taxpayer cash rain throwing expensive parties.

All that spending occurred for events that took place during a 16-month period, between January 2023 and May 2024, according to government records obtained by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

Bureaucrats attended the Oscars, the Cannes Film Festival in France, the Berlinale film festival in Germany, and the South by Southwest music and film festivals in Austin, Texas and Australia – all on the taxpayer dime.

“Government bureaucrats spent $175,000 a month partying it up at international film and music festivals,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “In what world does it make sense for bureaucrats to blow millions of taxpayer dollars on festivals when the government is more than a trillion dollars in debt and record numbers of Canadians are lining up at food banks?”

During South by Southwest festivals, bureaucrats spent $35,000 on plant and furniture rentals for a “Canada House” event, as well as $5,000 on “DJ services” and “animation services.”

An additional $15,000 was spent on a “social media champion” for the Canada House. Food and drink catering costs for a reception, as well as an “opening party” came to $11,700.

The 2023 South by Southwest festival in Australia also had a “Canada House,” with costs totalling at least $97,000. Bureaucrats also expensed $17,000 for an “event coordinator.”

At the 2024 Cannes Film Festival in France, bureaucrats spent $9,930 on “umbrella stand coordinator services.”

During the Berlinale festival, the rental fee for a “Canada Pavilion” came to $74,000.

Additional expenses at the festivals included professional photographers and hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on decoration services.

“Maybe government bureaucrats should figure out how to do basic things, like answering taxpayers’ phone calls, before trying to DJ international parties,” Terrazzano said. “Taxpayers are giving this international film festival party junket two big thumbs down.”

The spending happened at the ministries of Global Affairs Canada and Canadian Heritage, with money also spent by the National Film Board.

All told, the cost to taxpayers came in at $2,798,719, according to the records. The events all occurred during a 16-month period. That means the average spending on the festivals was $174,919 per month.

The government has already earmarked spending for future film and music festivals, with bureaucrats indicating the “plan is to continue to support Canadian talent at these world-class markets,” according to the records.

The details were released in response to an order paper question submitted by Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner (Calgary Nose Hill).

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Economy

Ottawa’s emissions cap will impose massive costs with virtually no benefit

Published on September 18, 2024

By

From the Fraser Institute

By Julio Mejía and Elmira Aliakbari

The resulting reduction in global GHG emissions would amount to a mere four-tenths of one per cent (i.e. 0.004 per cent) with virtually no impact on the climate or any detectable environmental, health or safety benefits.

Last year, when the Trudeau government said it would cap greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the oil and gas sector at 35 to 38 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030, it claimed the cap will not affect oil and gas production.

But a report by Deloitte, a leading audit and consulting firm, found that the cap (which would go into effect in 2026) will in fact curtail production, destroy jobs and cost the Canadian economy billions of dollars. Under Trudeau’s cap, Canada must curtail oil production by 626,000 barrels per day by 2030 or by approximately 10.0 per cent of the expected production—and curtail gas production by approximately 12.0 per cent.

According to the report’s estimates, Alberta will be hit hardest, with 3.6 per cent less investment, almost 70,000 fewer jobs, and a 4.5 per cent decrease in the province’s economic output (i.e. GDP) by 2040. Ontario will lose more than 15,000 jobs and $2.3 billion from its economy by 2040. And Quebec will lose more than 3,000 jobs and $0.4 billion from its economy during the same period.

Overall, the whole country will experience an economic loss equivalent to 1.0 per cent of GDP, translating into lower wages, the loss of nearly 113,000 jobs and a 1.3 per cent reduction in government tax revenues. Canada’s real GDP growth in 2023 was a paltry 1.1 per cent, so a 1 per cent reduction would be a significant economic loss.

Deloitte’s findings echo previous studies on the effects of Ottawa’s cap. According to a recent economic analysis by the Conference Board of Canada, the cap could reduce Canada’s GDP by up to $1 trillion between 2030 and 2040, eliminate up to 151,000 jobs by 2030, reduce federal government revenue by up to $151 billion between 2030 and 2040, and reduce Alberta government revenue by up to $127 billion over the same period.

Similarly, another recent study published by the Fraser Institute found that an emissions cap on the oil and gas sector would inevitably reduce production and exports, leading to at least $45 billion in lost economic activity in 2030 alone, accompanied by a substantial drop in government revenue.

Crucially, the huge economic cost to Canadians will come without any discernable environmental benefits. Even if Canada were to entirely shut down its oil and gas sector by 2030, thus eliminating all GHG emissions from the sector, the resulting reduction in global GHG emissions would amount to a mere four-tenths of one per cent (i.e. 0.004 per cent) with virtually no impact on the climate or any detectable environmental, health or safety benefits.

Given the sustained demand for fossil fuels, constraining oil and gas production and exports in Canada would merely shift production to other regions, potentially to countries with lower environmental and human rights standards such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela.

The Trudeau government’s proposed GHG cap will severely damage Canada’s economy for virtually no environmental benefit. The government should scrap the cap and prioritize the economic wellbeing of Canadians over policies that only bring pain with no gain.

Authors:

Julio Mejía
Policy Analyst
Elmira Aliakbari
Director, Natural Resource Studies, Fraser Institute
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