Canadians should expect even more spending in federal fall economic statement

The Trudeau government will soon release its fall economic statement. Though technically intended to be an update on the fiscal plan in this year’s budget, in recent years the fall economic statement has more closely resembled a “mini-budget” that unveils new (and often significant) spending commitments and initiatives.

Let’s look at the data.

The chart below includes projections of annual federal program spending from a series of federal budgets and updates, beginning with the 2022 budget and ending with the latest 2024 budget. Program spending equals total spending minus debt interest costs, and represents discretionary spending by the federal government.

Clearly, there’s a trend that with every consecutive budget and fiscal update the Trudeau government revises spending estimates upwards. Take the last two fiscal years, 2023/24 and 2024/25, for example. Budget 2022 projected annual program spending of $436.5 billion for the 2023/24 fiscal year. Yet the fall economic statement released just months later revised that spending estimate up to $449.8 billion, and later releases showed even higher spending.

The issue is even more stark when examining spending projections for the current fiscal year. Budget 2022 projected annual spending of $441.6 billion in 2024/25. Since then, every subsequent fiscal release has revised that estimate higher and higher, to the point that Budget 2024 estimates program spending of $483.6 billion for this year—representing a $42.0 billion increase from the projections only two years ago.

Meanwhile, as spending estimates are revised upwards, plans to reduce the federal deficit are consistently pushed off into later years.

For example, the 2022 fall economic statement projected a deficit of $25.4 billion for the 2024/25 fiscal year, and declining deficits in the years to come, before reaching an eventual surplus of $4.5 billion in 2027/28. However, subsequent budgets and fiscal updates again revised those estimates. The latest budget projects a deficit of $39.8 billion in 2024/25 that will decline to a $26.8 billion deficit by 2027/28. In other words, though budgets and fiscal updates have consistently projected declining deficits between 2024/25 and 2027/28, each subsequent document has produced larger deficits throughout the fiscal outlook and pushed the timeline for balanced budgets further into the future.

These data illustrate the Trudeau government’s lack of accountability to its own fiscal plans. Though the unpredictable nature of forecasting means the government is unlikely to exactly meet future projections, it’s still reasonable to expect it will roughly follow its own fiscal plans. However, time and time again Canadians have been sold a certain plan, only to have it change dramatically mere months later due to the government’s unwillingness to restrain spending. We shouldn’t expect the upcoming fall economic statement to be any different.

Authors:

Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

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Trump announces UK will fast-track American products under new deal

Published on May 8, 2025

Todayville

MxM News

Quick Hit:

President Donald Trump on Thursday announced the framework of a new trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom, calling it a breakthrough that will eliminate red tape and fast-track American exports.

Key Details:

President Trump told reporters the UK would be “opening up the country” to American goods, particularly U.S. beef and other agricultural exports.
Although the current 10% tariff rate on the UK will remain, the agreement offers Britain some flexibility on imports like auto parts and aircraft components while laying the foundation for an “economic security agreement.”
Trump emphasized that the UK has agreed to speed up the customs process for American products: “There won’t be any red tape—very fast approvals.”

🚨 A GOOD DEAL 🚨

President Trump announces the first breakthrough trade deal between America and the United Kingdom. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/pesMdQlCMY

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 8, 2025

Diving Deeper:

President Donald Trump on Thursday revealed that the United States and the United Kingdom have finalized the framework for a new bilateral trade deal, marking the first formal economic pact since his administration’s imposition of “Liberation Day” tariffs last month. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said the deal would ease trade barriers and accelerate customs clearance for American exports, with a particular focus on agricultural products like beef.

“They’ll also be fast-tracking American goods through their customs process, so our exports go to a very, very quick form of approval, and there won’t be any red tape,” Trump said. While a 10% tariff on British goods remains in place, the agreement grants London some relief on imports of automobile and aircraft components and extends an invitation to join a broader “economic security agreement.”

Prime Minister Keir Starmer joined the announcement via speakerphone and praised the negotiating team for their work. “This has been under discussion for weeks,” Starmer said, highlighting the roles of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in brokering the deal.

The announcement underscores the growing rapport between Trump and Starmer, who previously met at the White House on February 27th. While the final terms of the deal are still being worked out, the Trump administration has positioned this framework as a significant win in its broader push to restructure global trade in favor of American producers.

Business

Global trade reorder begins in Trump deal with United Kingdom

Published on May 8, 2025

Todayville

From The Center Square

By Brett Rowland

Seeking to reorder global trade with America at the center, President Donald Trump announced the framework of a trade deal with the United Kingdom on Thursday.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, since 2024 leader of a nation that maintains a special relationship with the U.S. including a more even trade balance than with other countries, spoke with the president by phone during an Oval Office meeting Thursday morning.

“This is turning out to be a great deal for both countries,” Trump said.

The 78-year-old second-term Republican president said the deal would improve market access for U.S. products in the United Kingdom, and improve the relationship between the two countries. Trump said it was the first of many deals from his trade team.

The 62-year-old leader of the Labour Party said the deal would create new jobs in both nations.

“We can finishing ironing out some of the details, but there’s a fantastic platform here,” Starmer said, calling the deal “historic.”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the U.S. has balanced trade with the United Kingdom. Lutnick said it would add $5 billion in market access to the U.S. Lutnick said the United Kingdom would get a 10% tariff on 100,000 automobile imports to the U.S., lower than the 25% tariff on foreign autos for other nations.

Lutnick said the lower tariff would protect jobs in the UK.

On social media, Trump wrote, “Today is an incredible day for America as we deliver our first Fair, Open, and Reciprocal Trade Deal – Something our past Presidents never cared about. Together with our strong Ally, the United Kingdom, we have reached the first, historic Trade Deal since Liberation Day. As part of this Deal, America will raise $6 BILLION DOLLARS in External Revenue from 10% Tariffs, $5 BILLION DOLLARS in new Export Opportunities for our Great Ranchers, Farmers, and Producers, and enhance the National Security of both the U.S. and the UK through the creation of an Aluminum and Steel Trading Zone, and a secure Pharmaceutical Supply Chain. This Deal shows that if you respect America, and bring serious proposals to the table, America is OPEN FOR BUSINESS. Many more to come — STAY TUNED!”

Trump announced a slate of higher tariffs on foreign nations on April 2, which he dubbed “Liberation Day” for American trade. On April 9, Trump paused those higher rates for 90 days to give his trade team time to make deals with other countries.

When Trump temporarily suspended the higher tariffs on April 9, he kept a 10% baseline tariff in place along with a 25% import duty on foreign autos and auto parts. He also kept 25% tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum.

Trump also imposed 145% tariffs on China, which retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. Those tariffs remain in place, although the two nations are set to begin talks this weekend.

Economists, businesses and many publicly-traded companies have warned that tariffs could raise prices on a wide range of consumer products.

Trump has said he wants to use tariffs to restore manufacturing jobs lost to lower-wage countries in decades past, shift the tax burden away from American families, and pay down the national debt.

A tariff is a tax on imported goods. The importer pays the tax and can either absorb the loss or pass the cost on to consumers through higher prices