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Business

Canadians face massive uncertainly and turbulence in 2025

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4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

As the new year beckons, Canadian policymakers, workers and consumers are staring at a turbulent and uncertain economic landscape. While the economy has been growing, the population has been increasing faster—leading to a two-year slide in economic output and real income, measured on a per-person basis. The result has been a visible decline in Canadian living standards amid a largely stagnant economy.

Looking ahead to 2025, Canada faces two big uncertainties. The first is linked to the return of Donald Trump who has made a host of jaw-dropping promises including a pledge to slap a 25 per cent tariff on all merchandise imports from Canada and Mexico on day one of his administration. Should he follow through with that plan, our economy will be plunged into recession.

Last year, Canada sold $593 billion of goods to the United States, along with more than $85 billion in “services,” together representing more than three-quarters of our total international exports. The Canadian industries that will take the biggest hit from possible Trumpian tariffs include energy, automobile and parts manufacturing, wood products, all types of machinery and equipment, consumer products, minerals and metals and agri-food.

While the threatened across-the-board tariffs may never materialize, it’s a safe bet that Trump’s presidency portends rocky times for the Canada-U.S. relationship. The near-certainty of increased U.S. restrictions on Canadian exports, coupled with the likelihood of tax cuts and sweeping regulatory reforms, means many larger and mid-sized Canadian companies will be tempted to redirect their capital and business growth ambitions to the south, thereby dampening domestic investment. In response, governments in Ottawa and the provinces should urgently improve the environment for investment at home.

Another source of economic uncertainty is the federal government’s decision to ratchet back immigration. Ottawa’s about-face on immigration ranks as one of the most dramatic reversals of Canadian public policy in half a century. Under the Trudeau Liberals, Canada has become wholly reliant on immigration-fuelled labour-force growth to drive the economy, as productivity—the other key contributor to long-term economic growth—has stalled. Higher immigration has indeed boosted economic activity, albeit without delivering gains in per-person income.

Now, federal policymakers intend to cut permanent immigration, impose sharp curbs on international students, and somehow engineer the departure of 1.3 million temporary residents currently living in Canada—all over the next two years. Exactly how and to what extent this will play out is unclear. After three years of rapid population growth, Canada could experience a flat or even slightly declining population. Lower immigration is necessary after a period of almost uncontrolled inflows, but zero or negative population growth will detract from economy-wide spending and put a dent in labour supply. The outcome will be slower economic growth in 2025-26 than otherwise would be the case.

Closer to home, the Trudeau government presides over a structurally weak economy where much of the growth has been coming from a ballooning public sector while large swathes of the business community shrink or sit on the sidelines. On Trudeau’s watch, government debt has soared, business investment has been chronically sluggish, and Canada’s ranking on surveys of global competitiveness has dropped. We can do better.

Rather than continuing to expand the size of government, policymakers should aim to revitalize the private-sector economy that still produces most of the country’s output and accounts for the bulk of Canada’s jobs, exports and innovations.

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Alberta

Federal taxes increasing for Albertans in 2025: Report

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From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

By Kris Sims 

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation released its annual New Year’s Tax Changes report today to highlight major tax changes in 2025.

The key provincial tax change expected for Alberta is a reduction in the income tax rate.

“The Alberta government promised to reduce our lowest income tax bracket from 10 down to eight per cent and we expect the government to keep that promise in the new year,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “The United Conservatives said this provincial income tax cut would save families about $1,500 each and Alberta families need that kind of tax relief right now.

“Premier Danielle Smith promised to cut taxes and Albertans expect her to deliver.”

Albertans will see several federal tax hikes coming from Ottawa in 2025.

Payroll taxes: The federal government is raising the mandatory Canada Pension Plan and Employment Insurance contributions in 2025. These payroll tax increases will cost a worker up to an additional $403 next year.

Federal payroll taxes (CPP and EI tax) will cost a worker making $81,200 or more $5,507 in 2025. Their employer will also be forced to pay $5,938.

Carbon tax: The federal carbon tax is increasing to about 21 cents per litre of gasoline, 25 cents per litre of diesel and 18 cents per cubic metre of natural gas on April 1. The carbon tax will cost the average household between $133 and $477 in 2025-26, even after the rebates, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

Alcohol taxes: Federal alcohol taxes will increase by two per cent on April 1. This alcohol tax hike will cost taxpayers $40.9 million in 2025-26, according to Beer Canada.

Following Budget 2024, the federal government also increased capital gains taxes and imposed a digital services tax and an online streaming tax.

Temporary Sales Tax Holiday: The federal government announced a two month sales tax holiday on certain items like pre-made groceries, children’s clothing, drinks and snacks. The holiday will last until Feb. 15, 2025, and could save taxpayers $2.7 billion.

“In 2025, the Trudeau government will yet again take more money out of Canadians’ pockets with payroll tax hikes and will make life more expensive by raising carbon taxes and alcohol taxes,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should drop his plans to take more money out of Canadians’ pockets and deliver serious tax relief.”

You can find the CTF’s New Year’s Tax Changes report HERE.

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Business

The gun ban and buyback still isn’t worth it for taxpayers

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From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

By Gage Haubrich

Even worse than the cost is the simple fact that the policy isn’t making Canadians safer. Trudeau banned the initial list of 1,500 guns in 2020, meaning that it’s illegal to buy, sell or use them. In every year since, violent gun crime in Canada has increased.

Right from the beginning, experts have told the prime minister that his gun ban and buyback will divert resources away from fighting crime rather than making Canada safer.

Instead of changing course, the Trudeau government announced it’s diverting even more taxpayers’ money to its failing gun policy policy.

And it’s an expensive diversion.

The federal government recently announced an additional 324 models of firearms are now prohibited and being added to the buyback list. That brings the total makes and models banned to almost 2,500.

Even though Ottawa hasn’t confiscated a single gun yet, costs have already begun to pile up for taxpayers. Since 2020, when the ban was first announced, the government has spent $67 million on the program. By the end of the fiscal year the government is likely to increase that number to about $100 million, according to government documents.

The projected costs of this scheme have been a problem from the start. In 2019, the government  said the buyback would cost taxpayers $200 million. But according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer, buying back the guns could cost up to $756 million, not including administrative costs. Other government documents show that the buyback is now likely to cost almost $2 billion.

Those costs do not include the newly banned firearms. And it looks like the government has plans to expand the list even further. That means even more costs to taxpayers.

Minister of Public Safety Dominic Leblanc, who is charge in charge of the gun ban, hinted during the press conference the popular SKS rifle might be added to the ban list next. There are estimated to be a million of those firearms in Canada.

That means the costs to taxpayers could soar and even more people could lose their guns. The  PBO report estimates that there were about 518,000 firearms banned on the original list. Adding the SKS could more than double the projected $756 million it would cost to confiscate the guns.

The government tried to ban the SKS before. It was included in an amendment to Bill C-21 that would have seen it banned along with a lot of hunting rifles. The Assembly of First Nations immediately passed an emergency resolution opposing this amendment at the time.

“It’s a tool,” said Kitigan Zibi Chief Dylan Whiteduck about the list of rifles that would have been banned. “It’s not a weapon.”

The government backed down on that amendment. There is no doubt it would encounter similar resistance from Indigenous hunters if Ottawa reimposed it.

Even worse than the cost is the simple fact that the policy isn’t making Canadians safer. Trudeau banned the initial list of 1,500 guns in 2020, meaning that it’s illegal to buy, sell or use them. In every year since, violent gun crime in Canada has increased.

And international examples confirm the pattern. New Zealand conducted a similar, but more extensive, gun ban and buyback in 2019. New Zealand had 1,216 violent firearm offenses in 2023. That’s 349 more offences than the year before the buyback.

All of this only confirms what experts have said from the beginning: This cost a lot of money, but won’t make Canada safer.

The union that represents the RCMP says the buyback “diverts extremely important personnel, resources, and funding away from addressing the more immediate and growing threat of criminal use of illegal firearms.”

“The gun ban is not working,” said the president of the Toronto Police Association. “We should focus on criminals.”

Academics who study the subject also agree.

“Buyback programs are largely ineffective at reducing gun violence, in large part because the people who participate in such programs are not likely to use those guns to commit violence,” said University of Toronto professor Jooyoung Lee.

Everyone but the prime minister can see the obvious. The costs for this program keep ballooning and taxpayers have every reason to worry the tab is only getting bigger. Yet our streets aren’t safer. Trudeau must scrap this ineffective and expensive gun buyback.

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