Business
Canada’s debt ranking falls from best in G7 to 7th worst of 32 advanced countries when total debt is measured
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss, and Milagros Palacios and Callum MacLeod
Canada’s relative debt position is much worse than the federal government suggests when a larger group of advanced countries are included and total debt—not just net debt—is measured, finds a new study released today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan, Canadian public policy think-tank.
“The federal government is very quick to point out that the country’s net debt relative to the size of the economy (GDP) is lowest in the G7, but Canada’s true debt position is much worse than Ottawa lets on,” said Jake Fuss, director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute and co-author of Caution Required When Comparing Canada’s Debt to that of Other Countries, 2024.
The study finds that Canada’s relative debt position, instead of being the best of the G7, falls significantly when total debt is measured instead of measuring debt after adjusting for financial assets. Net debt, which is the measure used by the federal government, offsets a part of the country’s total debt by including financial assets.
Specifically, Canada ranks 26th of 32 developed countries for its total (gross) debt as a share of the economy. In other words, Canada’s total debt relative to GDP is the 5th highest in the G7 and 7th highest amongst the industrialized world (32 advanced countries).
The reason Canada’s debt position declines so dramatically when total debt—and not net debt—is measured is because net debt includes the assets of the Canada Pension Plan and the Quebec Pension Plan, which unlike the public pension programs of other developed countries invests in non-government assets such as stocks and bonds.
As of December 2023, the combined assets of the CPP and QPP, some $716.7 billion, represented more than one-quarter of the difference between Canada’s total debt and net debt.
“The government cannot use the assets of the CPP and the QPP to repay its debt, so it is disingenuous to include those assets in Canada’s debt calculations,” Fuss said. “Canada is not the low-debt jurisdiction that Ottawa suggests, and Canadians should be aware of the true state of the country’s indebtedness.”
- The federal government continues to rationalize its debt-financed spending based on international comparisons showing Canada with the lowest level of debt in the G7.
- Of the two broad measures of debt, gross debt includes most forms of debt while net debt is a narrower measure that accounts for financial assets held by governments.
- By using net debt as a share of the economy (GDP), Canada ranks 5th lowest of 32 countries and lowest amongst the G7. By using gross debt as a share of the economy, Canada falls to 26th of 32 countries and 3rd lowest in the G7.
- Canada experiences the largest change in its indebtedness ranking—falling 21 places—when the measure shifts from net debt to gross debt.
- One reason for this pronounced change in ranking is that net debt includes the assets of the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans, which have unique approaches to funding public retirement plans: unlike most other industrialized countries, the CPP and QPP invest in non-government assets including equities and corporate bonds.
- As of December 31, 2023, according to Statistics Canada data, there were net assets in the combined CPP and QPP of $716.7 billion.
- According to IMF data, the difference between Canada’s gross and net debt was approximately $2.7 trillion at the end of 2023, which means the assets of CPP and QPP explain more than one-quarter of the difference.
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
According to the recent mid-year update tabled Thursday, the Smith government projects a $4.6 billion surplus in 2024/25, up from the $2.9 billion surplus projected just a few months ago. Despite the good news, Premier Smith must reduce spending to avoid budget deficits.
The fiscal update projects resource revenue of $20.3 billion in 2024/25. Today’s relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is helping finance today’s spending and maintain a balanced budget. But it will not last forever.
For perspective, in just the last decade the Alberta government’s annual resource revenue has been as low as $2.8 billion (2015/16) and as high as $25.2 billion (2022/23).
And while the resource revenue rollercoaster is currently in Alberta’s favor, Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledges that “risks are on the rise” as oil prices have dropped considerably and forecasters are projecting downward pressure on prices—all of which impacts resource revenue.
In fact, the government’s own estimates show a $1 change in oil prices results in an estimated $630 million revenue swing. So while the Smith government plans to maintain a surplus in 2024/25, a small change in oil prices could quickly plunge Alberta back into deficit. Premier Smith has warned that her government may fall into a budget deficit this fiscal year.
This should come as no surprise. Alberta’s been on the resource revenue rollercoaster for decades. Successive governments have increased spending during the good times of high resource revenue, but failed to rein in spending when resource revenues fell.
Previous research has shown that, in Alberta, a $1 increase in resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year (on a per-person, inflation-adjusted basis). However, a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.
Consider this: If this fiscal year the Smith government received an average level of resource revenue (based on levels over the last 10 years), it would receive approximately $13,000 per Albertan. Yet the government plans to spend nearly $15,000 per Albertan this fiscal year (after adjusting for inflation). That’s a huge gap of roughly $2,000—and it means the government is continuing to take big risks with the provincial budget.
Of course, if the government falls back into deficit there are implications for everyday Albertans.
When the government runs a deficit, it accumulates debt, which Albertans must pay to service. In 2024/25, the government’s debt interest payments will cost each Albertan nearly $650. That’s largely because, despite running surpluses over the last few years, Albertans are still paying for debt accumulated during the most recent string of deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21 (excluding 2014/15), which only ended when the government enjoyed an unexpected windfall in resource revenue in 2021/22.
According to Thursday’s mid-year fiscal update, Alberta’s finances continue to be at risk. To avoid deficits, the Smith government should meaningfully reduce spending so that it’s aligned with more reliable, stable levels of revenue.
Author:
Alberta maintains a balanced budget while ensuring pressures from population growth are being addressed.
Alberta faces rising risks, including ongoing resource volatility, geopolitical instability and rising pressures at home. With more than 450,000 people moving to Alberta in the last three years, the province has allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to address these pressures and ensure Albertans continue to be supported. Alberta’s government is determined to make every dollar go further with targeted and responsible spending on the priorities of Albertans.
The province is forecasting a $4.6 billion surplus at the end of 2024-25, up from the $2.9 billion first quarter forecast and $355 million from budget, due mainly to higher revenue from personal income taxes and non-renewable resources.
Given the current significant uncertainty in global geopolitics and energy markets, Alberta’s government must continue to make prudent choices to meet its responsibilities, including ongoing bargaining for thousands of public sector workers, fast-tracking school construction, cutting personal income taxes and ensuring Alberta’s surging population has access to high-quality health care, education and other public services.
“These are challenging times, but I believe Alberta is up to the challenge. By being intentional with every dollar, we can boost our prosperity and quality of life now and in the future.”
Midway through 2024-25, the province has stepped up to boost support to Albertans this fiscal year through key investments, including:
- $716 million to Health for physician compensation incentives and to help Alberta Health Services provide services to a growing and aging population.
- $125 million to address enrollment growth pressures in Alberta schools.
- $847 million for disaster and emergency assistance, including:
- $647 million to fight the Jasper wildfires
- $163 million for the Wildfire Disaster Recovery Program
- $5 million to support the municipality of Jasper (half to help with tourism recovery)
- $12 million to match donations to the Canadian Red Cross
- $20 million for emergency evacuation payments to evacuees in communities impacted by wildfires
- $240 million more for Seniors, Community and Social Services to support social support programs.
Looking forward, the province has adjusted its forecast for the price of oil to US$74 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. It expects to earn more for its crude oil, with a narrowing of the light-heavy differential around US$14 per barrel, higher demand for heavier crude grades and a growing export capacity through the Trans Mountain pipeline. Despite these changes, Alberta still risks running a deficit in the coming fiscal year should oil prices continue to drop below $70 per barrel.
After a 4.4 per cent surge in the 2024 census year, Alberta’s population growth is expected to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2025, lower than the first quarter forecast of 3.2 per cent growth because of reduced immigration and non-permanent residents targets by the federal government.
Revenue
Revenue for 2024-25 is forecast at $77.9 billion, an increase of $4.4 billion from Budget 2024, including:
- $16.6 billion forecast from personal income taxes, up from $15.6 billion at budget.
- $20.3 billion forecast from non-renewable resource revenue, up from $17.3 billion at budget.
Expense
Expense for 2024-25 is forecast at $73.3 billion, an increase of $143 million from Budget 2024.
Surplus cash
After calculations and adjustments, $2.9 billion in surplus cash is forecast.
- $1.4 billion or half will pay debt coming due.
- The other half, or $1.4 billion, will be put into the Alberta Fund, which can be spent on further debt repayment, deposited into the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and/or spent on one-time initiatives.
Contingency
Of the $2 billion contingency included in Budget 2024, a preliminary allocation of $1.7 billion is forecast.
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund
The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund grew in the second quarter to a market value of $24.3 billion as of Sept. 30, 2024, up from $23.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.
- The fund earned a 3.7 per cent return from July to September with a net investment income of $616 million, up from the 2.1 per cent return during the first quarter.
Debt
Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast at $84 billion as of March 31, 2025, $3.8 billion less than estimated in the budget because the higher surplus has lowered borrowing requirements.
- Debt servicing costs are forecast at $3.2 billion, down $216 million from budget.
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