Alberta
B.C. ranchers struggle as drought sends hay prices soaring
British Columbia rancher Suzanne Fradette had just got off the phone with a hay broker who had grim news amid an ongoing drought that has sent feed prices soaring: “It’s bad out there.”
“We’ve got a fairly small herd, like 140 head, but we are thinking it’s going to be about $100,000 this year for hay,” said Fradette.
That’s a 30-per-cent jump compared to recent years, and a painful price for a relatively small ranch.
Fradette runs the Back Valley Ranch ranch with partner Jerry Steves in the Deadmans’ area between Savona and Cache Creek, about 350 kilometres northeast of Vancouver.
Fradette said they are just “keeping their heads above water,” getting by one day at a time. Feeding their herd costs about $700 per day.
Fradette and Steves aren’t alone in their plight, with drought conditions pushing up feed prices across much of the country.
Agriculture Canada’s most recent drought monitor report says 76 per cent of the country’s agricultural landscape is either abnormally dry or experiencing moderate to severe drought this summer.
The B.C. Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness says most of the province remains at either Level 4 or 5 drought conditions, urging people and businesses to continue to conserve water, even as the first rain in more than a month falls this week on Metro Vancouver.
Low precipitation and historically early snowmelt have already pushed eight of B.C.’s 34 water basins into the worst Level 5 drought category, when all efforts should be made to conserve water and protect critical environmental flows. A further 13 are at level 4, meaning harm to ecosystems and communities is likely.
Fradette said that in previous years, her phone would be ringing briskly with offers of hay to feed her livestock, but things have changed this year.
“This time, I’m trying to phone around about it. There is no hay,” said Fradette.
Fradette said ranchers and farmers are struggling to get by.
“I always make the joke, I’m like, ‘I don’t want to be rich, rich. I just want to be change-my-oil-when-I-need-to rich.’ That’s our goal right there,” said Fradette.
Andy Wolfe operates Mount Lehman Farm, a family-owned beef ranch with 140 head of cattle in Abbotsford, B.C.
He said that thanks to “his farmer intuition,” he planned ahead this year to find three different suppliers to secure enough hay to cover him until next year.
“I basically took all the supply I could get from about three different local suppliers where normally I would be dealing with just one.”
Wolfe said loss of farmland to industrial usage led to shrinking production of hay, a problem compounded by the drought.
He said hay prices were skyrocketing. Large bales that cost $65 last year are now $130, said Wolfe, and even that price required negotiation with suppliers.
“Most people are paying way more,” said Wolfe, adding that some ranchers had to downsize their herd because of the hay shortage.
Although Wolfe said he has enough hay to make it through the year, he’s already worrying about next year.
“My concern is if this year’s drought is going to affect next year’s prices,” said Wolfe.
“I made it through this year and I am going to be OK this winter, but if the drought continues, I don’t know what I’m going to have to pay for hay. Next year is my biggest concern.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 25, 2023.
Nono Shen, The Canadian Press
Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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