Business
As inflation jumps to 3.3 per cent in July, economists say uptick is bad news for BoC
Statistics Canada released its July consumer price index report this morning, with a 3.3 per cent inflation rate. The rise in the pace of growth since June was led by gasoline prices. Gas prices are displayed in Carleton Place, Ont. on Tuesday, May 17, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
By Nojoud Al Mallees in Ottawa
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.3 per cent in July, as economists warn the latest consumer price index report spells bad news for the Bank of Canada.
The uptick in price growth comes after inflation tumbled to 2.8 per cent in June, falling within the Bank of Canada’s target range of between one and three per cent for the first time since March 2021.
“There’s no sense sugar coating this one — it is not a good report for the Bank of Canada,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter in a note to clients.
Inflation ticked up last month because gasoline prices fell less dramatically on a year-over-year basis than they did in June, Statistics Canada said.
After a significant run-up in energy prices prompted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, lower gasoline prices have largely driven the decline in inflation over the last year.
Now, other underlying price pressures need to ease for inflation to fall further. Porter notes gasoline prices are on pace to rise by five per cent in August.
The latest report has raised the odds of a rate hike next month, according to forecasters, despite other signs of economic softening, including rising unemployment.
And while Porter still expects the Bank of Canada to stay on the sidelines, he says “the inflation figures will make it a tougher call.”
Excluding energy prices, the consumer price index decelerated to 4.2 per cent, down from 4.4 per cent in June.
Meanwhile, grocery prices rose 8.5 per cent on an annual basis. The federal agency says prices rose more slowly than June’s 9.1 per cent, largely due to smaller price increases for fruit and bakery goods.
Prices for travel-related services also slowed or declined compared to a year ago. Airfare, for example, was down 12.7 per cent since July 2022.
The Bank of Canada expects inflation to hover around three per cent over the next year, before steadily declining to two per cent by mid-2025.
This longer trajectory back to the inflation target prompted the central bank to raise interest rates again in July, bringing its key rate to 5.0 per cent.
The rapid rise in interest rates has fed into higher mortgage interest costs, which Statistics Canada says continue to be the largest contributor to inflation.
Mortgage interest costs posted another record year-over-year increase in July, rising by 30.6 per cent.
The central bank is hoping households facing higher shelter costs due to rising interest rates to pull back on spending elsewhere and thereby slowing inflation.
The Bank of Canada is set to make its next interest rate decision on Sept. 6.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 15, 2023.
Business
Canada’s struggle against transnational crime & money laundering
From the Macdonald-Laurier Institute
By Alex Dalziel and Jamie Ferrill
In this episode of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Inside Policy Talks podcast, Senior Fellow and National Security Project Lead Alex Dalziel explores the underreported issue of trade-based money laundering (TBML) with Dr. Jamie Ferrill, the head of financial crime studies at Charles Sturt University in Canberra, Australia and a former Canada Border Services Agency officer.
The discussion focuses on how organized crime groups use global trade transactions to disguise illicit proceeds and the threat this presents to the Canada’s trade relationship with the US and beyond.
Definition of TBML: Trade-based money laundering disguises criminal proceeds by moving value through trade transactions instead of transferring physical cash. Criminals (usually) exploit international trade by manipulating trade documents, engaging in phantom shipping, and altering invoices to disguise illicit funds as legitimate commerce, bypassing conventional financial scrutiny. As Dr. Ferrill explains, “we have dirty money that’s been generated through things like drug trafficking, human trafficking, arms trafficking, sex trafficking, and that money needs to be cleaned in one way or another. Trade is one of the ways that that’s done.”
A Pervasive Problem: TBML is challenging to detect due to the vast scale and complexity of global trade, making it an attractive channel for organized crime groups. Although global estimates are imprecise, the Financial Action Task Force and The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) suggests 2-5% of GDP could be tied to money laundering, representing trillions of dollars annually. In Canada, this could mean over $70 billion in potentially laundered funds each year. Despite the scope of TBML, Canada has seen no successful prosecutions for criminal money laundering through trade, highlighting significant gaps in identifying, investigating and prosecuting these complex cases.
Canada’s Vulnerabilities: Along with the sheer volume and complexity of global trade, Canada’s vulnerabilities stem from gaps in anti-money laundering regulation, particularly in high-risk sectors like real estate, luxury goods, and legal services, where criminals exploit weak oversight. Global trade exemplifies the vulnerabilities in oversight, where gaps and limited controls create substantial opportunities for money laundering. A lack of comprehensive export controls also limits Canada’s ability to monitor goods leaving the country effectively. Dr. Ferrill notes that “If we’re seen as this weak link in the process, that’s going to have significant implications on trade partnerships,” underscoring the potential political risks to bilateral trade if Canada fails to address these issues.
International and Private Sector Cooperation: Combating TBML effectively requires strong international cooperation, particularly between Canada and key trade partners like the U.S. The private sector—including freight forwarders, customs brokers, and financial institutions—plays a crucial role in spotting suspicious activities along the supply chain. As Dr. Ferrill emphasizes, “Canada and the U.S. can definitely work together more efficiently and effectively to share and then come up with some better strategies,” pointing to the need for increased collaboration to strengthen oversight and disrupt these transnational crime networks.
Looking to further understand the threat of transnational organized crime to Canada’s borders?
Check out Inside Policy Talks recent podcasts with Christian Leuprecht, Todd Hataley and Alan Bersin.
To learn more about Dr. Ferrill’s research on TBML, check out her chapter in Dirty Money: Financial Crime in Canada.
Business
EU Tightens Social Media Censorship Screw With Upcoming Mandatory “Disinformation” Rules
From Reclaim The Net
This refers not only to spreading “fact-checking” across the EU member-countries but also to making VLOPs finance these groups. This, is despite the fact many of the most prominent “fact-checkers” have been consistently accused of fostering censorship instead of checking content for accuracy in an unbiased manner.
What started out as the EU’s “voluntary code of practice” concerning “disinformation” – affecting tech/social media companies – is now set to turn into a mandatory code of conduct for the most influential and widely-used ones.
The news was revealed by the Irish media regulator, specifically an official of its digital services, Paul Gordon, who spoke to journalists in Brussels. The EU Commission has yet to confirm that January will be the date when the current code will be “formalized” in this way.
The legislation that would enable the “transition” is the controversial Digital Services Act (DSA), which critics often refer to as the “EU online censorship law,” the enforcement of which started in February of this year.
The “voluntary” code is at this time signed by 44 tech companies, and should it become mandatory in January 2025, it will apply to those the EU defines as Very Large Online Platforms (VLOPs) (with at least 45 million monthly active users in the 27-nation bloc).
Currently, the number of such platforms is said to be 25.
In its present form, the DSA’s provisions obligate online platforms to carry out “disinformation”-related risk assessments and reveal what measures they are taking to mitigate any risks revealed by these assessments.
But when the code switches from “voluntary” to mandatory, these obligations will also include other requirements: demonetizing the dissemination of “disinformation”; platforms, civil society groups, and fact-checkers “effectively cooperating” during elections, once again to address “disinformation” – and, “empowering” fact-checkers.
This refers not only to spreading “fact-checking” across the EU member-countries but also to making VLOPs finance these groups. This, is despite the fact many of the most prominent “fact-checkers” have been consistently accused of fostering censorship instead of checking content for accuracy in an unbiased manner.
The code was first introduced (in its “voluntary” form) in 2022, with Google, Meta, and TikTok among the prominent signatories – while these rules originate from a “strengthened” EU Code of Practice on Disinformation based on the Commission’s Guidance issued in May 2021.
“It is for the signatories to decide which commitments they sign up to and it is their responsibility to ensure the effectiveness of their commitments’ implementation,” the EU said at the time – that would have been the “voluntary” element, while the Commission said the time it had not “endorsed” the code.
It appears the EC is now about to “endorse” the code, and then some – there are active preparations to make it mandatory.
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