Alberta
Any Downturn in Alberta’s Economy Would Inevitably Drag Canada’s Down With It

From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
By Troy Media
Is anyone paying attention?
Canada is heading straight for an economic iceberg, and the rest of the country doesn’t seem to grasp the gravity of the situation. Alberta – long the engine of Canada’s prosperity thanks to its oil and gas sector – is facing a serious decline because the Trudeau government is obsessed with its net-zero policies. And if Alberta falters, the ripple effects will drag down the entire nation. But are we too preoccupied with federal climate targets to recognize the risks staring us in the face?
The Trudeau government’s push for net-zero emissions by 2050 may look noble on paper, but the real-world cost could be catastrophic. The numbers don’t lie: according to a recent column by Troy Media contributor Lennie Kaplan, Alberta’s oil production could drop by a staggering 54 percent by 2050. That’s not just a provincial problem; it’s a national economic emergency waiting to happen.
Let’s cut through the jargon. Alberta makes up about 15 percent of Canada’s GDP. If Alberta’s economy shrinks by $32 billion – as projected – it would trigger a 1.2 percent drop in Canada’s GDP. For context, that’s a multi-billion-dollar hole in a country whose economy is, itself, already in severe decline.
Does Ottawa think a shrinking economy will put us in a stronger position to innovate and grow? Or are they content with turning Alberta into a sacrificial lamb on the altar of climate policy, ignoring the fact that this will make Canada less competitive on the world stage?
Then there’s the job market. Alberta’s energy sector employs thousands and indirectly supports tens of thousands more across Canada. By 2050, again according to Kaplan, Alberta could shed 198,000 jobs – five percent of its workforce. These aren’t just oil rig workers; they’re engineers, construction crews, transport workers, and more.
It gets worse. When Alberta’s economy shrinks, industries from coast to coast that depend on Alberta’s vitality will also take a hit. If even 10 to 15 percent of those job losses trickle across the country, we’re looking at another 20,000 to 30,000 Canadians joining the unemployment line. Yet, where is the urgency to address this looming crisis?
Alberta isn’t just a provincial powerhouse – it’s also a major contributor to federal revenues. Between 2025 and 2050, the province’s contributions could drop by $221 billion due to declining oil and gas revenues. That’s less money for healthcare, infrastructure, and social programs from coast to coast.
For a federal government that already struggles to balance its books, the loss of up to $40 billion in federal tax contributions from Alberta is a fiscal disaster in the making. Where do they expect to make up that shortfall? Higher taxes? Slashed services? Or maybe another round of federal borrowing to kick the can down the road?
Alberta’s oil and gas isn’t just a provincial asset – it’s a critical part of Canada’s trade balance. In 2022, energy exports made up 20 percent of Canada’s total exports. Cut that by more than half, and you’re gutting Canada’s international trade position.
A $70 to 80 billion hit to export revenue could balloon the country’s trade deficit, further devaluing the Canadian dollar and making imports more expensive. In short, this isn’t just bad news for Alberta – it’s an economic calamity that could send shockwaves through every corner of the country.
And let’s not forget the federal equalization program. Alberta has long been a “have” province, contributing far more than it gets back. But if Alberta’s economy falters, it could soon be knocking on Ottawa’s door for handouts.
Imagine the political firestorm if Alberta becomes a “have-not” province, competing for federal support with the very provinces that have relied on its success. The strain on equalization could pit regions against each other, creating a toxic political environment when unity is more crucial than ever.
Does Ottawa even care?
Alberta’s decline isn’t just Alberta’s problem. It’s a Canadian problem. The Trudeau government’s climate obsession needs to take this into account. We cannot afford to sacrifice Alberta’s economic engine without dragging the rest of the country down with it.
What’s the plan to balance climate goals with economic reality? So far, there’s been little more than vague promises and short-term thinking. If Ottawa doesn’t wake up to the real-world consequences of Alberta’s decline, we’re all in for a harsh economic reckoning.
It’s time for our leaders to prioritize pragmatic solutions over virtue signalling. Because if Alberta goes down, the rest of Canada won’t be far behind.
First published here.
Troy Media is an editorial content provider to media outlets and its own hosted community news outlets across Canada.
Alberta
Red Deer Justice Centre Grand Opening: Building access to justice for Albertans

The new Red Deer Justice Centre will help Albertans resolve their legal matters faster.
Albertans deserve to have access to a fair, accessible and transparent justice system. Modernizing Alberta’s courthouse infrastructure will help make sure Alberta’s justice system runs efficiently and meets the needs of the province’s growing population.
Alberta’s government has invested $191 million to build the new Red Deer Justice Centre, increasing the number of courtrooms from eight to 12, allowing more cases to be heard at one time.
“Modern, accessible courthouses and streamlined services not only strengthen our justice
system – they build safer, stronger communities across the province. Investing in the new Red Deer Justice Centre is vital to helping our justice system operate more efficiently, and will give people in Red Deer and across central Alberta better access to justice.”

Government of Alberta and Judiciary representatives with special guests at the Red Deer Justice Centre plaque unveiling event April 22, 2025.
On March 3, all court services in Red Deer began operating out of the new justice centre. The new justice centre has 12 courtrooms fully built and equipped with video-conference equipment to allow witnesses to attend remotely if they cannot travel, and vulnerable witnesses to testify from outside the courtroom.
The new justice centre also has spaces for people taking alternative approaches to the traditional courtroom trial process, with the three new suites for judicial dispute resolution services, a specific suite for other dispute resolution services, such as family mediation and civil mediation, and a new Indigenous courtroom with dedicated venting for smudging purposes.
“We are very excited about this new courthouse for central Alberta. Investing in the places where people seek justice shows respect for the rights of all Albertans. The Red Deer Justice Centre fills a significant infrastructure need for this rapidly growing part of the province. It is also an important symbol of the rule of law, meaning that none of us are above the law, and there is an independent judiciary to decide disputes. This is essential for a healthy functioning democracy.”
“Public safety and access to justice go hand in hand. With this investment in the new Red Deer Justice Centre, Alberta’s government is ensuring that communities are safer, legal matters are resolved more efficiently and all Albertans get the support they need.”
“This state-of-the-art facility will serve the people of Red Deer and surrounding communities for generations. Our team at Infrastructure is incredibly proud of the work done to plan, design and build this project. I want to thank everyone, at all levels, who helped make this project a reality.”
Budget 2025 is meeting the challenge faced by Alberta with continued investments in education and health, lower taxes for families and a focus on the economy.
Quick facts
- The new Red Deer Justice Centre is 312,000 sq ft (29,000 m2). (The old courthouse is 98,780 sq ft (9,177 m2)).
- The approved project funding for the Red Deer Justice Centre is about $191 million.
Alberta
CPP another example of Albertans’ outsized contribution to Canada

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
Amid the economic uncertainty fuelled by Trump’s trade war, its perhaps more important than ever to understand Alberta’s crucial role in the federation and its outsized contribution to programs such as the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).
From 1981 to 2022, Albertan’s net contribution to the CPP—meaning the amount Albertans paid into the program over and above what retirees in Alberta received in CPP payments—was $53.6 billion. In 2022 (the latest year of available data), Albertans’ net contribution to the CPP was $3.0 billion.
During that same period (1981 to 2022), British Columbia was the only other province where residents paid more into the CPP than retirees received in benefits—and Alberta’s contribution was six times greater than B.C.’s contribution. Put differently, residents in seven out of the nine provinces that participate in the CPP (Quebec has its own plan) receive more back in benefits than they contribute to the program.
Albertans pay an outsized contribution to federal and national programs, including the CPP because of the province’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes and younger population (i.e. more workers pay into the CPP and less retirees take from it).
Put simply, Albertan workers have been helping fund the retirement of Canadians from coast to coast for decades, and without Alberta, the CPP would look much different.
How different?
If Alberta withdrew from the CPP and established its own standalone provincial pension plan, Alberta workers would receive the same retirement benefits but at a lower cost (i.e. lower CPP contribution rate deducted from our paycheques) than other Canadians, while the contribution rate—essentially the CPP tax rate—to fund the program would likely need to increase for the rest of the country to maintain the same benefits.
And given current demographic projections, immigration patterns and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth, Albertan workers will likely continue to pay more into the CPP than Albertan retirees get back from it.
Therefore, considering Alberta’s crucial role in national programs, the next federal government—whoever that may be—should undo and prevent policies that negatively impact the province and Albertans ability to contribute to Canada. Think of Bill C-69 (which imposes complex, uncertain and onerous review requirements on major energy projects), Bill C-48 (which bans large oil tankers off B.C.’s northern coast and limits access to Asian markets), an arbitrary cap on oil and gas emissions, numerous other “net-zero” targets, and so on.
Canada faces serious economic challenges, including a trade war with the United States. In times like this, it’s important to remember Alberta’s crucial role in the federation and the outsized contributions of Alberta workers to the wellbeing of Canadians across the country.
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