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Alberta

Albertans continue to pay for government debt—despite budget surpluses

Published

1 year ago

4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

” due to the amount of debt accumulated, and higher interest rates, Albertans will actually see government debt interest costs increase and reach $687 per Albertan by 2025/26 “

Thanks in large part to a windfall in resource revenue, the Alberta government has been running budget surpluses since 2021/22. Yet at the same time, as budget season approaches, Albertans are paying more and more for the cost of government debt.

Prior to the recent string of surpluses, during a period of relatively low resource revenue, Alberta incurred nearly uninterrupted deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21. A deficit is simply when the government spends more than it collects in revenue in a given year—and it leads to debt accumulation.

Indeed, Alberta went from a net financial asset position of $35.0 billion in 2007/08 to a net debt position of $59.5 billion in 2020/21. In other words, the province’s finances deteriorated by nearly $95 billion.

Of course, the burden of government debt ultimately falls on Alberta families, today and in the future, because governments must pay interest on their debt—and that interest ultimately is raised from Albertans through taxes. As the government accumulated more and more debt, debt interest costs increased from $61 per Albertan in 2007/08 to a projected $672 per Albertan in 2023/24. Servicing the debt also diverts resources away from services such as health care and education.

Unfortunately, debt interest costs don’t just disappear when you run surpluses, even with the Alberta government using a share of these surpluses to pay down debt. Instead, due to the amount of debt accumulated, and higher interest rates, Albertans will actually see government debt interest costs increase and reach $687 per Albertan by 2025/26.

This is why it’s so important for governments to practice fiscal prudence, in good times and bad. Rather than increasing spending during the good times (i.e. periods of relatively high resource revenue) as successive Alberta governments have done in the past, then running deficits when relatively high resource revenue inevitably declines, the Smith government should restrain spending.

How? For starters, the government can limit the amount of resource revenue included in the budget using a rainy-day account based on the previous Alberta Sustainability Fund (ASF), which was established in 2003 to “stabilize” a specific amount of resource revenue for the budget, thus limiting the amount of money available for annual spending. The idea was simple; save some resource revenue during good times to ensure a stable amount of resource revenue for the budget during bad times.

Unfortunately, the previous ASF was based in statutory law, which meant its rules were easily changed and the government discarded the fund entirely in 2013. The Smith government should instead establish the specific amount of resource revenue for the budget as a “constitutional rule,” which would make it more difficult to change in the future.

Government debt comes with big costs for Albertans—and those costs don’t simply disappear when the province runs a surplus. For true fiscal stability, the government needs a fundamentally new approach. The upcoming budget is a good place to start.

Author:

Tegan Hill
Associate Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

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Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

Published on April 2, 2025

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Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

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Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

Published on April 2, 2025

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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