Alberta
Alberta. The Best Province in a Nation in Trouble.

Submitted by Red Deer South MLA Jason Stephan
September 1 is Alberta Day. Alberta is a land of freedom and prosperity, welcoming all who desire to work and to serve, seeking happiness for themselves and their families. Alberta joined confederation and became part of Canada on September 1, 1905. Historically, Alberta has led Canada in key measures such as GDP per capita, business investment per worker, private sector employment, CPP contributions, equalization payments, etc. Alberta is the best.
Canada has benefited from Alberta more than Alberta has benefited from Canada. In this graph produced by the Fraser Institute, for its article titled Understanding Alberta’s Outsized Contribution to Confederation, it is estimated that Alberta businesses and workers, between 2017 to 2023, paid more than $244 billion to Ottawa than it received from Ottawa, dwarfing net contributions of the only two other contributing provinces, Ontario and BC, despite, in the case of Ontario, having a much larger population.
The biggest taker during this period was Quebec, receiving more than $327 billion from Ottawa than it paid. Many have written how Quebec and others “game” confederation to increase transfers from producers. Indeed, the current premier of Quebec said that his favorite thing about Canada is equalization.
While Canada has the potential to be the most free and prosperous country in the world, by objective measures it is not, and the flawed structure of “confederation”, and some who seek to exploit it to glut themselves on the labors of others, hold us back and drag us down. When the “redistribution” of wealth displaces the “production” of wealth as a ruling principle, we are in trouble and that is now.
Many are concerned that Trudeau’s Canada is a growing danger and threat to Alberta’s freedom and prosperity. That is true. Alberta is better off without Trudeau’s Canada. Trudeau’s Canada is a fiscal train wreck. Trudeau has smashed through a trillion dollars in debt, accumulating more debt than all Prime Ministers before him combined. This gross negligence, waste and disrespect will be burdens of our children long after they are gone. Canada now pays more in interest on its debt than it collects from the GST.
Prior to Trudeau, in 2014, Canada’s per capita GDP was 92% of the US. What is it now? In 2022, it is 72%, a 20% drop in less than 10 years, and getting worse. We are getting poorer, fast. It should not be this way, it does not need to be this way.
Canadians awake and alive to the truth of Trudeau’s Canada and where it is leading are rightly concerned and alarmed. But what to do? Some are leaving or have left.
Alberta has the highest per capita GDP in Canada, rejecting Trudeau’s woke, socialist values of mediocrity and virtue signaling, producing nothing. Trudeau’s Canada appears to resent Alberta with policies that single out Alberta, seeking to attack, hold back, or drag it down.
Do not count on many politicians to stand up for a “Fair Deal” for Alberta, because if Alberta gets a Fair Deal, then it means less handouts for others!
Let’s provide Albertans with the unbiased truth and facts surrounding “fiscal federalism”. Who is paying what, and who is getting what, directly or indirectly, from Alberta businesses and workers. Albertans should be supplied with the truth about what they are paying for and what Trudeau’s Canada is costing them. In this fall legislature I will be bringing forward a motion to get to these facts, even if some do not like it.
Let’s arm Albertans with more truth, and then trust them to lead, to know what is best. Let’s increase Alberta’s leverage for a Fair Deal. The less Alberta needs Canada, the more leverage Alberta has. There are many things that Alberta can do for Albertans better than Trudeau’s Canada.
Albertans need alternatives to Trudeau’s Canada; let’s prepare, insulate, and protect ourselves from this accelerating trainwreck, which unabated, will crash as sure as night follows day.
We cannot be complacent – less talk and more action.
Alberta is a blessed land of freedom and prosperity. We must be vigilant to keep it that way. Happy Alberta Day!
Alberta
Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.
The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.
Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.
Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.
Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.
Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.
The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.
Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.
Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.
And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.
Alberta
Governments in Alberta should spur homebuilding amid population explosion

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill and Austin Thompson
In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.
Alberta has long been viewed as an oasis in Canada’s overheated housing market—a refuge for Canadians priced out of high-cost centres such as Vancouver and Toronto. But the oasis is starting to dry up. House prices and rents in the province have spiked by about one-third since the start of the pandemic. According to a recent Maru poll, more than 70 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians doubt they will ever be able to afford a home in their city. Which raises the question: how much longer can this go on?
Alberta’s housing affordability problem reflects a simple reality—not enough homes have been built to accommodate the province’s growing population. The result? More Albertans competing for the same homes and rental units, pushing prices higher.
Population growth has always been volatile in Alberta, but the recent surge, fuelled by record levels of immigration, is unprecedented. Alberta has set new population growth records every year since 2022, culminating in the largest-ever increase of 186,704 new residents in 2024—nearly 70 per cent more than the largest pre-pandemic increase in 2013.
Homebuilding has increased, but not enough to keep pace with the rise in population. In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.
Moreover, from 1972 to 2019, Alberta added 2.1 new residents (on average) for every housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents for every housing unit started in 2024. Put differently, today nearly twice as many new residents are potentially competing for each new home compared to historical norms.
While Alberta attracts more Canadians from other provinces than any other province, federal immigration and residency policies drive Alberta’s population growth. So while the provincial government has little control over its population growth, provincial and municipal governments can affect the pace of homebuilding.
For example, recent provincial amendments to the city charters in Calgary and Edmonton have helped standardize building codes, which should minimize cost and complexity for builders who operate across different jurisdictions. Municipal zoning reforms in Calgary, Edmonton and Red Deer have made it easier to build higher-density housing, and Lethbridge and Medicine Hat may soon follow suit. These changes should make it easier and faster to build homes, helping Alberta maintain some of the least restrictive building rules and quickest approval timelines in Canada.
There is, however, room for improvement. Policymakers at both the provincial and municipal level should streamline rules for building, reduce regulatory uncertainty and development costs, and shorten timelines for permit approvals. Calgary, for instance, imposes fees on developers to fund a wide array of public infrastructure—including roads, sewers, libraries, even buses—while Edmonton currently only imposes fees to fund the construction of new firehalls.
It’s difficult to say how long Alberta’s housing affordability woes will endure, but the situation is unlikely to improve unless homebuilding increases, spurred by government policies that facilitate more development.
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