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Alberta

Alberta takes decisive action to get more oil to market

Published

3 minute read

February 19, 2019

A historic rail deal between Canadian Pacific Railway, Canadian National Railway and the Government of Alberta means all Albertans will get a better price for our energy resources.

Alberta takes decisive action to get more oil to market

Premier Notley announces Alberta’s new investment in crude-by-rail export capacity.

This strategic investment by the Alberta government will see an estimated 4,400 rail cars move up to 120,000 barrels per day by 2020. Albertans can look forward to seeing rail cars transport Alberta oil as early as July 2019.

This is another part of our Made-in-Alberta energy strategy – building on Alberta’s energy strengths to get more value from our resources and create more jobs.

“Each and every Albertan owns our energy resources and deserves to get top dollar for them. We are taking decisive actions to protect people and to protect our natural inheritance. When challenges are placed in front of us, we overcome them. I’m going to keep working every day to fight for a better future for every person who calls Alberta home.”

Premier Rachel Notley

In 2018, Premier Notley laid out short, medium and long-term plans to get top dollar for Alberta’s energy resources. In the short term, the province temporarily curtailed oil production to address the storage glut. Over the long-term, the Premier continues to fight for pipelines and today’s rail deal means Alberta can expand take-away capacity over the medium term.

This investment in increased rail capacity totals about $3.7 billion. With the anticipated commercial revenue and increased royalty and tax revenues, the province anticipates generating approximately $5.9 billion over the next three years.

The Government of Alberta will purchase crude oil from producers and load it onto the rail cars at onloading facilities across the province. The crude oil will then be shipped to market. These actions will help industry including small producers who may not have the ability to take this action on their own.

In developing its Crude-by-Rail strategy, the Alberta government has also taken care to ensure that additional rail cars carrying oil will have no impact on the shipments of agricultural products.

Quick facts

  • $3.7B investment provides Albertans with $5.9B in revenues over three years.
  • Approximately US$4 per barrel reduction projected in differential between West Texas Intermediate and Western Canadian Select from early 2020 to late 2021.
  • Additional 120,000 barrels a day of rail capacity is anticipated by 2020.
  • 4,400 rail cars will be used to transport oil. The first complement of rail cars are expected to start transporting Alberta oil in July 2019.
  • Rail cars include DOT-117J and DOT-117R models, which meet all current safety standards outlined by Transport Canada.

Alberta

Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

Published on

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.

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Alberta

Governments in Alberta should spur homebuilding amid population explosion

Published on

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Austin Thompson

In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Alberta has long been viewed as an oasis in Canada’s overheated housing market—a refuge for Canadians priced out of high-cost centres such as Vancouver and Toronto. But the oasis is starting to dry up. House prices and rents in the province have spiked by about one-third since the start of the pandemic. According to a recent Maru poll, more than 70 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians doubt they will ever be able to afford a home in their city. Which raises the question: how much longer can this go on?

Alberta’s housing affordability problem reflects a simple reality—not enough homes have been built to accommodate the province’s growing population. The result? More Albertans competing for the same homes and rental units, pushing prices higher.

Population growth has always been volatile in Alberta, but the recent surge, fuelled by record levels of immigration, is unprecedented. Alberta has set new population growth records every year since 2022, culminating in the largest-ever increase of 186,704 new residents in 2024—nearly 70 per cent more than the largest pre-pandemic increase in 2013.

Homebuilding has increased, but not enough to keep pace with the rise in population. In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Moreover, from 1972 to 2019, Alberta added 2.1 new residents (on average) for every housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents for every housing unit started in 2024. Put differently, today nearly twice as many new residents are potentially competing for each new home compared to historical norms.

While Alberta attracts more Canadians from other provinces than any other province, federal immigration and residency policies drive Alberta’s population growth. So while the provincial government has little control over its population growth, provincial and municipal governments can affect the pace of homebuilding.

For example, recent provincial amendments to the city charters in Calgary and Edmonton have helped standardize building codes, which should minimize cost and complexity for builders who operate across different jurisdictions. Municipal zoning reforms in CalgaryEdmonton and Red Deer have made it easier to build higher-density housing, and Lethbridge and Medicine Hat may soon follow suit. These changes should make it easier and faster to build homes, helping Alberta maintain some of the least restrictive building rules and quickest approval timelines in Canada.

There is, however, room for improvement. Policymakers at both the provincial and municipal level should streamline rules for building, reduce regulatory uncertainty and development costs, and shorten timelines for permit approvals. Calgary, for instance, imposes fees on developers to fund a wide array of public infrastructure—including roads, sewers, libraries, even buses—while Edmonton currently only imposes fees to fund the construction of new firehalls.

It’s difficult to say how long Alberta’s housing affordability woes will endure, but the situation is unlikely to improve unless homebuilding increases, spurred by government policies that facilitate more development.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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