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Alberta

Alberta reaching out to Canadians to help kill Ottawa’s job-killing cap on energy production

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Scrap the Cap

S&P Global Commodity Insights found that a 40 per cent emissions cap could lead to a reduction in oil and natural gas production of one million barrels per day by 2030 and a 2.1-million barrel reduction by 2035.

Independent analysis by the Conference Board of Canada, Deloitte and S&P Global tell the same story: the federal government’s proposed cap would require oil and gas production cuts that would put people out of work and drain billions from Canada’s economy. Despite these reports and continued opposition from many provinces, industry, businesses, experts and Canadians, the federal government will soon release its draft regulations.

The proposed emissions cap is a production cap. S&P Global Commodity Insights found that a 40 per cent emissions cap could lead to a reduction in oil and natural gas production of one million barrels per day by 2030 and a 2.1-million barrel reduction by 2035. According to the Conference Board of Canada and Deloitte, the cap could amount to a more than 10 per cent reduction in oil production and a 16 per cent reduction in conventional gas production in Alberta in 2030.

Alberta’s government is launching a national advertising campaign to inform Canadians that this cap will lead our province and country into economic and societal decline. Alberta would be hit hardest and in 2040, the province’s GDP would shrink by 4.5 per cent. Canada’s would decline by 1 per cent. The cap would result in 150,000 Canadians losing their jobs and the loss of $14 billion a year from the economy. The average Canadian family would be left with up to $419 less per month to spend on groceries, housing or fuel, impacting the quality of life Canadians enjoy coast to coast to coast.

All Canadians deserve to know the dangers of this cap, which will negatively impact their families without reducing global emissions whatsoever.

“Once again, Ottawa is attempting to set policies that are shortsighted and reckless. We’re challenging proposed policy that would stifle our energy industry, kill jobs and ruin economies by launching a national campaign that tells Ottawa to “Scrap the Cap.” We’re telling the federal government to forget this reckless and extreme idea and get behind Alberta’s leadership by investing in real solutions that cut emissions, not Canada’s prosperity.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

The proposed cap will put safe, reliable and secure energy at risk while costing tens of thousands of jobs and billions in lost federal revenue that pays for important programs, services and infrastructure. This means lost jobs, hurt families shuttered businesses and less revenue going to the schools, hospitals, programs and services every Canadian relies on.

If left unchanged, this cap would force Canada’s energy industry to curtail production at the expense of struggling Canadian families. When production is cut, jobs, tax revenues and the economy are cut too. It is, in effect, a cap on prosperity that would be felt across the country.

Alberta is encouraging Canadians to visit the Scrap the Cap website and tell Ottawa they cannot and will not support a cap on energy production that leaves Canadians with a lower standard of living and reduced services. Print, television and social media advertisements will run nationwide from Oct. 15 to the end of November to urge Canadians to contact their member of parliament (MP) and share their thoughts. The Scrap the Cap website includes a letter that can be sent electronically.

“We will not stand by while the federal government threatens tens of thousands of jobs. This production cap means billions in revenues down the drain, and we will not let our province’s – or our country’s – economic future be gutted by an out-of-touch federal government. There is a way to reduce emissions without killing the economy… but this unconstitutional production cap is not it.”

Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas

“A cap on oil and gas production will kill jobs and investment and adds to the growing list of federal programs that will kill investments in decarbonization. All Canadians need to let Ottawa know how this cap hurts Alberta and risks Canada’s energy security.”

Alberta is reducing emissions through common sense, incentives and technologies, not taxes or punitive regulations. The oil sands emissions intensity per barrel has fallen 23 per cent since 2009 and is expected to decline another 28 per cent by 2035. Alberta’s overall emissions, electricity emissions and methane emissions are all declining, even as energy demand rises and the economy grows.

The province aspires to be carbon neutral by 2050 without cutting jobs or compromising affordable, reliable and secure energy for Albertans, Canadians and the world.

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Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

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Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

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Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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