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Alberta

Alberta government should undo personal income tax hikes

Published

8 months ago

4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Nathaniel Li

If the Smith government reduced Alberta’s top PIT rate to 8 per cent, it would be the lowest provincial rate in Canada and Alberta would have one of the lowest top combined PIT rates in North America (41.0 per cent). Put simply, the change would go a long way to restoring Alberta’s previous tax advantage. And approximately 2.3 million Albertans would save $1,573 per year (on average)

On the campaign trail, Danielle Smith promised to create a new 8 per cent tax bracket for personal income below $60,000. While the tax cut was delayed in the recently tabled 2024 budget, it remains a good idea—in fact, Premier Smith should go a step further and create a single tax rate of 8 per cent for personal income.

First, some context.

As recently as 2014, Alberta had the lowest top combined (that is, provincial and federal) personal income tax (PIT) rate in North America. Paired with a low business income tax rate and no sales tax, Alberta had a powerful tax advantage that made the province a very attractive place to work and invest.

But in 2015, the NDP government replaced Alberta’s single personal income tax rate of 10 per cent with a five-bracket system including a top marginal rate of 15 per cent.

As a result, as noted in a new study published by the Fraser Institute, Alberta now has the 10th highest combined PIT rate in North America. And crucially, higher than rates in U.S. energy jurisdictions such as Texas, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Colorado, Louisiana, North Dakota and Alaska, which compete with Alberta for talent and investment.

If the Smith government reduced Alberta’s top PIT rate to 8 per cent, it would be the lowest provincial rate in Canada and Alberta would have one of the lowest top combined PIT rates in North America (41.0 per cent). Put simply, the change would go a long way to restoring Alberta’s previous tax advantage. And approximately 2.3 million Albertans would save $1,573 per year (on average), which means more money in the pockets of Albertans.

Moreover, a significant body of research finds that high income tax rates discourage economic growth by reducing after-tax income from work, savings, investment and entrepreneurship. Correspondingly, high income tax rates tend to negatively affect economic growth while lower rates stimulate economic activity. In other words, this tax change could come with big economic benefits to Albertans by attracting investment and high-skilled workers that fuel innovation and job creation.

Finally, this tax change may be more fiscally feasible than one might think. Based on budget data from the Smith government, reducing Alberta’s multi-bracket PIT system to a single rate of 8 per cent would’ve led to an estimated revenue loss of $3.8 billion in 2023/24, which is equivalent to just 5.1 per cent of total provincial government revenue that year. And the behavioural affect from lower taxes—increased work, savings and investment—could dramatically reduce the amount of revenue lost.

It’s time the Smith government make good on its campaign promise and finally undo the personal income tax hikes by the previous NDP government. Returning to a single-rate personal income tax system would help restore the province’s lost tax advantage and attract the entrepreneurs, businesses and investment that fuel a strong economy.

Authors:

Tegan Hill
Associate Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute
Nathaniel Li
Senior Economist, Fraser Institute

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Alberta’s fiscal update projects budget surplus, but fiscal fortunes could quickly turn

Alberta

Alberta’s fiscal update projects budget surplus, but fiscal fortunes could quickly turn

Published on November 21, 2024

By

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

According to the recent mid-year update tabled Thursday, the Smith government projects a $4.6 billion surplus in 2024/25, up from the $2.9 billion surplus projected just a few months ago. Despite the good news, Premier Smith must reduce spending to avoid budget deficits.

The fiscal update projects resource revenue of $20.3 billion in 2024/25. Today’s relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is helping finance today’s spending and maintain a balanced budget. But it will not last forever.

For perspective, in just the last decade the Alberta government’s annual resource revenue has been as low as $2.8 billion (2015/16) and as high as $25.2 billion (2022/23).

And while the resource revenue rollercoaster is currently in Alberta’s favor, Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledges that “risks are on the rise” as oil prices have dropped considerably and forecasters are projecting downward pressure on prices—all of which impacts resource revenue.

In fact, the government’s own estimates show a $1 change in oil prices results in an estimated $630 million revenue swing. So while the Smith government plans to maintain a surplus in 2024/25, a small change in oil prices could quickly plunge Alberta back into deficit. Premier Smith has warned that her government may fall into a budget deficit this fiscal year.

This should come as no surprise. Alberta’s been on the resource revenue rollercoaster for decades. Successive governments have increased spending during the good times of high resource revenue, but failed to rein in spending when resource revenues fell.

Previous research has shown that, in Alberta, a $1 increase in resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year (on a per-person, inflation-adjusted basis). However, a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.

Consider this: If this fiscal year the Smith government received an average level of resource revenue (based on levels over the last 10 years), it would receive approximately $13,000 per Albertan. Yet the government plans to spend nearly $15,000 per Albertan this fiscal year (after adjusting for inflation). That’s a huge gap of roughly $2,000—and it means the government is continuing to take big risks with the provincial budget.

Of course, if the government falls back into deficit there are implications for everyday Albertans.

When the government runs a deficit, it accumulates debt, which Albertans must pay to service. In 2024/25, the government’s debt interest payments will cost each Albertan nearly $650. That’s largely because, despite running surpluses over the last few years, Albertans are still paying for debt accumulated during the most recent string of deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21 (excluding 2014/15), which only ended when the government enjoyed an unexpected windfall in resource revenue in 2021/22.

According to Thursday’s mid-year fiscal update, Alberta’s finances continue to be at risk. To avoid deficits, the Smith government should meaningfully reduce spending so that it’s aligned with more reliable, stable levels of revenue.

Author:

Tegan Hill
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Alberta

Premier Smith says Auto Insurance reforms may still result in a publicly owned system

Published on November 21, 2024

By

Better, faster, more affordable auto insurance

Alberta’s government is introducing a new auto insurance system that will provide better and faster services to Albertans while reducing auto insurance premiums.

After hearing from more than 16,000 Albertans through an online survey about their priorities for auto insurance policies, Alberta’s government is introducing a new privately delivered, care-focused auto insurance system.

Right now, insurance in the province is not affordable or care focused. Despite high premiums, Albertans injured in collisions do not get the timely medical care and income support they need in a system that is complex to navigate. When fully implemented, Alberta’s new auto insurance system will deliver better and faster care for those involved in collisions, and Albertans will see cost savings up to $400 per year.

“Albertans have been clear they need an auto insurance system that provides better, faster care and is more affordable. When it’s implemented, our new privately delivered, care-centred insurance system will put the focus on Albertans’ recovery, providing more effective support and will deliver lower rates.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

“High auto insurance rates put strain on Albertans. By shifting to a system that offers improved benefits and support, we are providing better and faster care to Albertans, with lower costs.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Albertans who suffer injuries due to a collision currently wait months for a simple claim to be resolved and can wait years for claims related to more serious and life-changing injuries to addressed. Additionally, the medical and financial benefits they receive often expire before they’re fully recovered.

Under the new system, Albertans who suffer catastrophic injuries will receive treatment and care for the rest of their lives. Those who sustain serious injuries will receive treatment until they are fully recovered. These changes mirror and build upon the Saskatchewan insurance model, where at-fault drivers can be sued for pain and suffering damages if they are convicted of a criminal offence, such as impaired driving or dangerous driving, or conviction of certain offenses under the Traffic Safety Act.

Work on this new auto insurance system will require legislation in the spring of 2025. In order to reconfigure auto insurance policies for 3.4 million Albertans, auto insurance companies need time to create and implement the new system. Alberta’s government expects the new system to be fully implemented by January 2027.

In the interim, starting in January 2025, the good driver rate cap will be adjusted to a 7.5% increase due to high legal costs, increasing vehicle damage repair costs and natural disaster costs. This protects good drivers from significant rate increases while ensuring that auto insurance providers remain financially viable in Alberta.

Albertans have been clear that they still want premiums to be based on risk. Bad drivers will continue to pay higher premiums than good drivers.

By providing significantly enhanced medical, rehabilitation and income support benefits, this system supports Albertans injured in collisions while reducing the impact of litigation costs on the amount that Albertans pay for their insurance.

“Keeping more money in Albertans’ pockets is one of the best ways to address the rising cost of living. This shift to a care-first automobile insurance system will do just that by helping lower premiums for people across the province.”

Nathan Neudorf, Minister of Affordability and Utilities

Quick facts

  • Alberta’s government commissioned two auto insurance reports, which showed that legal fees and litigation costs tied to the province’s current system significantly increase premiums.
  • A 2023 report by MNP shows
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