Alberta government must do more to avoid red ink

As Albertans look toward a new year, it’s worth reviewing the state of provincial finances. When delivering news last month of a projected $4.6 billion budget surplus for fiscal year 2024/25, the Smith government simultaneously warned Albertans that a budget deficit could be looming. Confused? A $4.6 billion budget surplus sounds like good news—but not when its on the back of historically high (and incredibly volatile) resource revenue.

In just the last 10 years, resource revenue, which includes oil and gas royalties, has ranged from a low of $3.4 billion in 2015/16 (inflation-adjusted) to a high of $26.1 billion in 2022/23. Inflation-adjusted resource revenue is projected to be relatively high in historical terms this fiscal year at $19.8 billion.

Resource revenue volatility is not in and of itself a problem. The problem is that provincial governments tend to increase spending when resource revenue is high, but do not similarly reduce spending when resource revenue declines.

Overall, in Alberta, a $1 increase in inflation-adjusted per-person resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year, but a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. Over time, this pattern has contributed to historically high levels of government spending that exceed ongoing stable levels of government revenue.

And while the Smith government has shown some restraint, spending levels remain significantly higher than reliable ongoing levels of government revenue. Put simply, unpredictable resource revenue continues to help fund Alberta’s spending—and when resource revenues inevitably fall, Alberta is at high risk of plummeting into a deficit.

Indeed, Finance Minister Nate Horner continues to emphasize that we are “living in extremely volatile times” and warning that if oil prices fall below $70.00 per barrel a budget deficit is “very likely.” According to recent forecasts, the price of oil may hit $66.00 per barrel in 2025.

To avoid this fate, the Alberta government must do more to rein in spending. Fortunately, there’s plenty of options.

For example, the government spends billions in subsidies (a.k.a. corporate welfare) to select industries and businesses every year. A significant body of research shows these subsidies fail to generate widespread economic benefits. Eliminating this corporate welfare, which would generate significant savings in the budget, is a good place to start.

If the Smith government fails to rein in spending, and Alberta incurs a budget deficit, it will only mean more government debt on the backs of Albertans. And with Albertans already paying approximately $650 each in provincial government debt interest each year, that’s something Albertans simply can’t afford.

With a new year set to begin, the Smith government continues to warn of a budget deficit. But rather than simply prepare Albertans for more debt accumulation—financed by their tax dollars—the government should do more to avoid red ink. That means cutting wasteful government spending.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Related Topics:#AlbertaBudget #AlbertaGovernmentSpending #FraserInstitute #TeganHill AlbertaFinance

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Alberta

Former Chief Judge of Manitoba Proincial Court will lead AHS third-party investigation into AHS procurement process

Published on March 3, 2025

Government of Alberta

Deputy Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade Christopher McPherson has issued the following statement on an independent third-party investigation into procurement and contracting processes used by the Government of Alberta and Alberta Health Services (AHS):

Deputy Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade Christopher McPherson has issued the following statement on an independent third-party investigation into procurement and contracting processes used by the Government of Alberta and Alberta Health Services (AHS):

“While serving as Acting Deputy Minister of Executive Council, Premier Danielle Smith asked me to establish a credible, independent, third-party investigation into the procurement processes used by the Government of Alberta and AHS and their outcomes.

“I have informed Premier Smith that the Honourable Raymond E. Wyant, former Chief Judge of the Provincial Court of Manitoba, will lead this investigation. I asked Premier Smith to issue a ministerial order to facilitate his work and she has done so. Judge Wyant’s work on this matter begins immediately.

“Judge Wyant was appointed to the Manitoba bench in 1998 before becoming Chief Judge in 2002. Prior to his service on the bench, Judge Wyant worked as a criminal defence lawyer and Crown attorney and was acting deputy director of Manitoba prosecutions at the time of his appointment to the Bench. He has also taught law for many years at Robson Hall at the University of Manitoba.

“Judge Wyant will review the relevant legislation, regulations and policies related to procurement typically used by Government of Alberta departments and agencies, specifically AHS, and their application to the procurement of pharmaceuticals and to services offered by chartered surgical facilities. Questions that Judge Wyant will consider are outlined in the attached terms of reference, and include whether or not any elected official, Government of Alberta or AHS employee, or other individuals, acted improperly during the procurement processes. Judge Wyant will make recommendations to the government for improvement or further action as appropriate.

“Appointed under the Government Organization Act, Judge Wyant will operate independently of government. The Government of Alberta will provide Judge Wyant with access to all relevant documents held by its departments and AHS, as well as facilitate interviews with relevant individuals.

“Judge Wyant has been given a budget of $500,000 to undertake this important work, including to retain legal and audit assistance at his discretion. He is being paid $31,900 per month, which is the same remuneration rate as the Chief Justice of the Alberta Court of Justice.

“To ensure additional independence, Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction will hold the budget for this third-party investigation.

“Judge Wyant will deliver an interim written report by May 30, 2025. A final written report and recommendations will be delivered by June 30, 2025, and it will be posted on alberta.ca.”

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Alberta

Alberta Income Tax cut is great but balanced budgets are needed

Published on February 28, 2025

Todayville

By Kris Sims

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is applauding the Alberta government for giving Albertans a huge income tax cut in Budget 2025, but is strongly warning against its dive into debt by running a deficit.

“Premier Danielle Smith keeping her promise to cut Alberta’s income tax is great news, because it means huge savings for most working families,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “Families are fighting to afford basics right now, and if they can save more than $1,500 per year thanks to this big tax cut, that would cover a month’s rent or more than a month’s worth of groceries.”

Finance Minister Nate Horner announced, effective this fiscal year, Alberta will drop its lowest income tax rate to eight per cent, down from 10 per cent, for the first $60,000 of earnings.

The government estimates this income tax cut will save the average Alberta worker about $750 per year, or more than $1,500 per year for a two-person working family.

Albertans earning less than $60,000 a year will see a 20 per cent reduction to their annual provincial income tax bill.

The budget also contained some bad news.

The province is running a $5.2 billion deficit in 2025-26 and the government is planning to keep running deficits for two more years.

Total spending has gone up from $73.1 billion from last budget to $79.3 billion this year, an increase of 8.4 per cent.

“If the government had frozen spending at last year’s budget level, the province could have a $1 billion surplus and still cut the income tax,” said Sims. “The debt is going up over the next few years, but we caught a lucky break with interest rates dropping this past year, so we aren’t paying as much in interest payments on the debt.”

The province’s debt is now estimated to be $82.8 billion for 2025-26.

Interest payments on the provincial debt are costing taxpayers about $2.9 billion, about a 12 per cent decrease from last year.