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Alberta

Alberta announces 11.6 billion surplus

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Strong year-end positions Alberta for stability

A solid end to 2022-23 secures Alberta’s long-term financial outlook and provides stability against future economic uncertainty.

Alberta ended the fiscal year with an $11.6-billion surplus, exceeding the Budget 2022 projected surplus by $11.1 billion. In 2022-23, the province paid down $13.3 billion in debt, eliminating an estimated $260 million in debt servicing costs annually and reducing the overall debt burden on Albertans.

The province’s strong financial situation also resulted in the market value of the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund growing by $2.5 billion to $21.2 billion. The Heritage Fund’s year-over-year growth was primarily due to actions taken by the Alberta government to retain $1.25 billion in net investment income from 2021-22 and deposit $753 million into the fund.

Growing the Heritage Fund benefits current and future generations of Albertans by ensuring the province is well equipped to handle future uncertainty.

In March of this year, Alberta’s government made legislative changes to ensure the fund continues to grow to support Albertans now and in the future. These changes allow the government to retain all investment income within the Heritage Fund instead of it being transferred to general revenue.

“The 2022-23 year-end report is a very positive one. We promised to keep our economy moving forward and Alberta is reaping the benefits. Albertans can rest easy knowing that Alberta’s prosperity today means more stability tomorrow as we continue to pay down debt and save for the future.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Alberta’s government remains committed to responsible financial management. For the current and subsequent years, Alberta’s new legislated fiscal framework will continue to address Alberta’s unique economic and revenue volatility. The framework requires government to put at least half of any surplus toward debt repayment, with the remainder going toward additional debt repayment, the Heritage Fund or one-time initiatives that do not permanently increase government spending.

Revenue

Revenue in 2022-23 was $76.1 billion, $13.5 billion more than estimated in Budget 2022, including:

  • $25.2 billion in non-renewable resource revenue, $11.4 billion more than estimated in Budget 2022.
  • $26.5 billion in tax revenue, $3.5 billion higher than estimated in Budget 2022. This included:
    • $8.2 billion in corporate income tax, $4.1 billion more than estimated in Budget 2022.
    • $13.9 billion in personal income tax, $543 million more than estimated in Budget 2022.

At the time the Budget 2022 forecast was developed, the global economy was experiencing significant uncertainty related to COVID-19, global growth and energy demand. Budget 2022 was based on a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast of US$70 per barrel in 2022-23.

Oil prices surged last year due to many global factors. WTI reached US$120 per barrel in June 2022 and averaged US$89.69 for the 2022-23 fiscal year, a large reason for the increase in resource and corporate income tax revenue.

Expense

Expense in 2022-23 was $64.5 billion, $2.4 billion more than estimated in Budget 2022, including:

  • $25.2 billion in health expense to expand capacity and for higher costs in response to Albertans’ evolving health-care needs.
  • Investments of $8.9 billion and $6.1 billion in K-12 and post-secondary education, respectively, providing quality learning for Alberta’s youth and building on the province’s world-class post-secondary environment.

Among other factors, the overall increase from Budget 2022 was due to:

  • A $2.2-billion increase in operating expense, mainly for health, increased compensation costs from settled agreements, electricity rebates and other affordability measures, and the cost of selling oil.
  • A $300-million increase in COVID-19 recovery costs.
  • A $167-million increase in debt servicing costs, mainly due to the impact of higher interest rates.

Affordability

In response to rising living costs, Alberta’s government introduced a series of affordability measures in 2022-23 that helped slow inflation and make life more affordable for Albertans. In 2022-23, the government provided $2.9 billion in affordability supports, including:

  • $1.1 billion for the fuel tax relief program, funded through a reduction in revenue.
  • $304 million for indexation of the personal income tax system to inflation retroactive to the 2022 tax year, funded through a reduction in revenue.
  • $644 million for electricity rebates.
  • $441 million for affordability payments to eligible seniors, families with children and vulnerable Albertans on core benefits programs.
  • $51 million for indexation of benefit payments to inflation (Alberta Seniors Benefit, Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped, Income Support, Persons with Developmental Disabilities).

To further reduce the cost burden on Albertans, Alberta’s government recently extended the pause on the collection of the provincial fuel tax, saving Albertans 13 cents on every litre of gasoline and diesel until the end of 2023.

Alberta

Alberta’s fiscal update projects budget surplus, but fiscal fortunes could quickly turn

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

According to the recent mid-year update tabled Thursday, the Smith government projects a $4.6 billion surplus in 2024/25, up from the $2.9 billion surplus projected just a few months ago. Despite the good news, Premier Smith must reduce spending to avoid budget deficits.

The fiscal update projects resource revenue of $20.3 billion in 2024/25. Today’s relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is helping finance today’s spending and maintain a balanced budget. But it will not last forever.

For perspective, in just the last decade the Alberta government’s annual resource revenue has been as low as $2.8 billion (2015/16) and as high as $25.2 billion (2022/23).

And while the resource revenue rollercoaster is currently in Alberta’s favor, Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledges that “risks are on the rise” as oil prices have dropped considerably and forecasters are projecting downward pressure on prices—all of which impacts resource revenue.

In fact, the government’s own estimates show a $1 change in oil prices results in an estimated $630 million revenue swing. So while the Smith government plans to maintain a surplus in 2024/25, a small change in oil prices could quickly plunge Alberta back into deficit. Premier Smith has warned that her government may fall into a budget deficit this fiscal year.

This should come as no surprise. Alberta’s been on the resource revenue rollercoaster for decades. Successive governments have increased spending during the good times of high resource revenue, but failed to rein in spending when resource revenues fell.

Previous research has shown that, in Alberta, a $1 increase in resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year (on a per-person, inflation-adjusted basis). However, a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.

Consider this: If this fiscal year the Smith government received an average level of resource revenue (based on levels over the last 10 years), it would receive approximately $13,000 per Albertan. Yet the government plans to spend nearly $15,000 per Albertan this fiscal year (after adjusting for inflation). That’s a huge gap of roughly $2,000—and it means the government is continuing to take big risks with the provincial budget.

Of course, if the government falls back into deficit there are implications for everyday Albertans.

When the government runs a deficit, it accumulates debt, which Albertans must pay to service. In 2024/25, the government’s debt interest payments will cost each Albertan nearly $650. That’s largely because, despite running surpluses over the last few years, Albertans are still paying for debt accumulated during the most recent string of deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21 (excluding 2014/15), which only ended when the government enjoyed an unexpected windfall in resource revenue in 2021/22.

According to Thursday’s mid-year fiscal update, Alberta’s finances continue to be at risk. To avoid deficits, the Smith government should meaningfully reduce spending so that it’s aligned with more reliable, stable levels of revenue.

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Alberta

Premier Smith says Auto Insurance reforms may still result in a publicly owned system

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Better, faster, more affordable auto insurance

Alberta’s government is introducing a new auto insurance system that will provide better and faster services to Albertans while reducing auto insurance premiums.

After hearing from more than 16,000 Albertans through an online survey about their priorities for auto insurance policies, Alberta’s government is introducing a new privately delivered, care-focused auto insurance system.

Right now, insurance in the province is not affordable or care focused. Despite high premiums, Albertans injured in collisions do not get the timely medical care and income support they need in a system that is complex to navigate. When fully implemented, Alberta’s new auto insurance system will deliver better and faster care for those involved in collisions, and Albertans will see cost savings up to $400 per year.

“Albertans have been clear they need an auto insurance system that provides better, faster care and is more affordable. When it’s implemented, our new privately delivered, care-centred insurance system will put the focus on Albertans’ recovery, providing more effective support and will deliver lower rates.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

“High auto insurance rates put strain on Albertans. By shifting to a system that offers improved benefits and support, we are providing better and faster care to Albertans, with lower costs.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Albertans who suffer injuries due to a collision currently wait months for a simple claim to be resolved and can wait years for claims related to more serious and life-changing injuries to addressed. Additionally, the medical and financial benefits they receive often expire before they’re fully recovered.

Under the new system, Albertans who suffer catastrophic injuries will receive treatment and care for the rest of their lives. Those who sustain serious injuries will receive treatment until they are fully recovered. These changes mirror and build upon the Saskatchewan insurance model, where at-fault drivers can be sued for pain and suffering damages if they are convicted of a criminal offence, such as impaired driving or dangerous driving, or conviction of certain offenses under the Traffic Safety Act.

Work on this new auto insurance system will require legislation in the spring of 2025. In order to reconfigure auto insurance policies for 3.4 million Albertans, auto insurance companies need time to create and implement the new system. Alberta’s government expects the new system to be fully implemented by January 2027.

In the interim, starting in January 2025, the good driver rate cap will be adjusted to a 7.5% increase due to high legal costs, increasing vehicle damage repair costs and natural disaster costs. This protects good drivers from significant rate increases while ensuring that auto insurance providers remain financially viable in Alberta.

Albertans have been clear that they still want premiums to be based on risk. Bad drivers will continue to pay higher premiums than good drivers.

By providing significantly enhanced medical, rehabilitation and income support benefits, this system supports Albertans injured in collisions while reducing the impact of litigation costs on the amount that Albertans pay for their insurance.

“Keeping more money in Albertans’ pockets is one of the best ways to address the rising cost of living. This shift to a care-first automobile insurance system will do just that by helping lower premiums for people across the province.”

Nathan Neudorf, Minister of Affordability and Utilities

Quick facts

  • Alberta’s government commissioned two auto insurance reports, which showed that legal fees and litigation costs tied to the province’s current system significantly increase premiums.
  • A 2023 report by MNP shows
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