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Alberta

Alberta and British Columbia set to gain federal ridings from Liberal-held Ontario areas

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6 minute read

From LifeSiteNews

By Clare Marie Merkowsky

Three Liberal-held ridings in Toronto and northern Ontario are set to be given to British Columbia and Alberta this spring, providing a potential benefit to the Conservative Party in the next election.

Alberta and British Columbia are set to gain more federal ridings, which could increase Conservatives’ chances of a federal victory in the next election.  

According to a memo published October 10 by Blacklock’s Reporter, the next federal election will see fewer Members of Parliament (MPs) in Toronto and northern Ontario, and more in Okanagan, British Columbia, and suburban Alberta. 

“One of our election readiness activities this year relates to electoral boundaries redistribution,” Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault testified at the House affairs committee.   

The changes will come into effect under the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act on April 22, 2024, and elections after that date will “take place under the new map.” 

The redistribution aims to rebalance the seats proportionately to population growth within the provinces. It will mean a record 343 seats in the House of Commons. Currently, ridings are divided into 122 in Ontario, 78 in Québec, 43 in British Columbia, 37 in Alberta, 14 in Saskatchewan, 14 in Manitoba, 11 in Nova Scotia, 10 in New Brunswick, 7 in Newfoundland and Labrador, 4 in Prince Edward Island and 1 each in the Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut.  

Under the new distribution, Toronto will lose the Scarborough-Agincourt riding held by Liberal MP Jean Yip, going from 25 to 24 federal ridings. Last election, all 25 Toronto ridings voted for the Liberals, at 51 percent support, making it the party’s largest popular vote in any major Canadian city. 

“It is necessary to move a district to other areas of the Greater Toronto Area that, while equally diverse, are growing much faster than the City of Toronto,” said the Final Report of The Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission For The Province Of Ontario. 

“The population of the City of Toronto only grew by 6.9 percent from 2011 to 2021 compared to 11.7 percent for the remainder of the province,” it wrote, arguing that keeping 25 seats in Toronto would “unfairly impact other parts of Ontario.”  

Additionally, Northern Ontario is set to lose one of its nine ridings. In 2021, most ridings in Northern Ontario voted Liberal, with the exception of Kenora (Conservative MP Eric Melillo) and Timmins-James Bay (New Democrat MP Charlie Angus). 

“We are in a very fragile time for democracy,” MP Angus testified May 8 at the House affairs committee. “We must do our best to reassure citizens that their voice counts and that they are being heard.” 

Ontario’s ridings are set to be given to western provinces. British Columbia, which typically votes Liberal or New Democrat, will gain one new seat, Vernon-Lake Country in Okanagan.  

On the other hand, Alberta, a historically Conservative province, is set to gain three ridings in Calgary McKnight, Airdrie-Chestermere and Spruce Grove-Leduc.

The Alberta ridings are not the only factor pointing to a Conservative victory next fall. Recently, Canadians have become increasingly fed up of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership.   

A September poll revealed that Trudeau’s disproval rates have reached a record high of 57 percent. The number should not come as a surprise as the polling also showed that 72 percent of Canadians are concerned with rising costs of living amid Trudeau’s ever-increasing carbon tax and energy regulations.   

According to a September 5 report by Statistics Canada, food prices are rising faster than the headline inflation rate – the overall inflation rate in the country – as staple food items are increasing at a rate of 10 to 18 percent year-over-year when compared to the overall inflation rate of 4 percent.   

Earlier this year, the Bank of Canada admitted that Trudeau’s federal “climate change” programs, which have been deemed “extreme” by some provincial leaders, are indeed helping to fuel inflation.  

Furthermore, as a result of the Trudeau government’s Online News Act, Canadians can no longer access news on Facebook or Instagram as Meta refuses to pay the fees mandated by the act.  

On the other hand, Conservative Party leader Poilievre has openly condemned the Online News Act, comparing it with George Orwell’s dystopian novel “1984.”  

Furthermore, Poilievre has repeatedly promised Canadians that he will axe the carbon tax and restore the economy if elected prime minister.  

While Trudeau came out to condemn the September 20 Million Person March against LGBT indoctrination in schools, Poilievre initially failed to support the immensely popular pro-family effort, and even went as far as having his office tell his caucus to refrain from making any statements about the movement. 

Poilievre did eventually break his silence on the matter, slamming Trudeau for his condemnation of concerned parents and encouraging the federal government to leave LGBT discussions to families and not the education system.

Alberta

Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.

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Alberta

Governments in Alberta should spur homebuilding amid population explosion

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Austin Thompson

In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Alberta has long been viewed as an oasis in Canada’s overheated housing market—a refuge for Canadians priced out of high-cost centres such as Vancouver and Toronto. But the oasis is starting to dry up. House prices and rents in the province have spiked by about one-third since the start of the pandemic. According to a recent Maru poll, more than 70 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians doubt they will ever be able to afford a home in their city. Which raises the question: how much longer can this go on?

Alberta’s housing affordability problem reflects a simple reality—not enough homes have been built to accommodate the province’s growing population. The result? More Albertans competing for the same homes and rental units, pushing prices higher.

Population growth has always been volatile in Alberta, but the recent surge, fuelled by record levels of immigration, is unprecedented. Alberta has set new population growth records every year since 2022, culminating in the largest-ever increase of 186,704 new residents in 2024—nearly 70 per cent more than the largest pre-pandemic increase in 2013.

Homebuilding has increased, but not enough to keep pace with the rise in population. In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Moreover, from 1972 to 2019, Alberta added 2.1 new residents (on average) for every housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents for every housing unit started in 2024. Put differently, today nearly twice as many new residents are potentially competing for each new home compared to historical norms.

While Alberta attracts more Canadians from other provinces than any other province, federal immigration and residency policies drive Alberta’s population growth. So while the provincial government has little control over its population growth, provincial and municipal governments can affect the pace of homebuilding.

For example, recent provincial amendments to the city charters in Calgary and Edmonton have helped standardize building codes, which should minimize cost and complexity for builders who operate across different jurisdictions. Municipal zoning reforms in CalgaryEdmonton and Red Deer have made it easier to build higher-density housing, and Lethbridge and Medicine Hat may soon follow suit. These changes should make it easier and faster to build homes, helping Alberta maintain some of the least restrictive building rules and quickest approval timelines in Canada.

There is, however, room for improvement. Policymakers at both the provincial and municipal level should streamline rules for building, reduce regulatory uncertainty and development costs, and shorten timelines for permit approvals. Calgary, for instance, imposes fees on developers to fund a wide array of public infrastructure—including roads, sewers, libraries, even buses—while Edmonton currently only imposes fees to fund the construction of new firehalls.

It’s difficult to say how long Alberta’s housing affordability woes will endure, but the situation is unlikely to improve unless homebuilding increases, spurred by government policies that facilitate more development.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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