Stop moving to shut down Saskatchewan coal – it could be the salvation of our oil industry
What if there was a way to keep coal mining jobs in Saskatchewan, continue to produce low-cost electrical power, and extend the production of a substantial portion of Saskatchewan’s oilfields not by decades, but by generations? And in doing so, we could still dramatically reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and maybe save some money by reducing our nuclear rollout?
All of this is now possible, and it has everything to do with keeping our coal miners digging and our coal-fired power plants going, maybe even renewing them.
There was a potentially major development for Saskatchewan’s energy sector buried in Whitecap Resources Inc.’s year-end financial report released on Feb. 21. Whitecap said about using CO2 for enhanced oil recovery, “We have also recently started CO2 injection at a pilot CO2 flood into the Frobisher formation underlying the Weyburn Midale unit. We drilled two (2.0 net) producer wells and three (3.0 net) injection wells in 2023 and initiated CO2 injection in late 2023. Early results are encouraging with a notable production response coming through approximately one month after injection, increasing oil rates on the two producer wells from approximately 40 bpd to over 200 bpd, per well. Further technical analysis to determine commerciality and large-scale development is ongoing, and we will provide updates as next steps are determined.”
While the Bakken formation got all the headlines starting around 2007, the reality is in southeast Saskatchewan, very few Bakken wells are drilled these days. Most of the activity has been Frobisher wells, especially around Steelman, where it has been targeted for decades. So if the Frobisher responds well to tertiary recovery through carbon dioxide floods, it opens up a lot of possibilities for extending the life of some of Saskatchewan’s most prolific oilfields, taking recovery rates from the mid-20 per cent range to over 50 per cent.
Whitecap’s initial results were not a five per cent improvement, or 50 per cent, but five times higher. That’s something everyone, including the provincial government, should take notice of. Imagine if you could increase crop production from 60 bushels to the acre to 300 bushels? Or quintuple potash or uranium production from certain mines? You’d be an idiot to not at least take a hard look at it.
I’m not suggesting it will remain anywhere close to that level, but the fact the CO2 flood in the Weyburn Unit, in the Vuggy and Marly units of the Midale formation, has already dramatically increased recovery rates and lengthened the lifespan of a field that otherwise would have long gone dry is significant. If the same process can be expanded to the much more prolific Frobisher formation, that’s a very big deal.
Even if it was a 25 per cent improvement – that’s well worth investigating.
Frobisher is a big deal
How prolific is the Frobisher?
Most of the drilling activity in southeast Saskatchewan follows a certain pattern. The majority is along the Frobisher subcrop – the edge of the formation where it pinches out, forming a structural trap. Of the 16 rigs working in Saskatchewan on March 3, it’s a good bet 10, and possibly more, were drilling Frobisher wells. The daily well report for March 3 published by the Ministry of Energy and Resources shows out of 19 wells listed that day in Estevan area of responsibility, all 19, across five oil producers, were either targeting the Frobisher. It may be a fluke all that day showed the Frobisher, but it definitely shows its significance.
So if Whitecap, which has been growing to be one of Saskatchewan’s largest oil producers, has found a way to substantially increase production from this formation, shouldn’t we take a hard look at how we can take advantage of it?
Stop the process of winding down coal
There’s one thing we should do right now – stop this idea of shutting down our coal-fired power plants near Estevan. You hardly hear SaskPower mention coal-fired power anymore. I keep hearing how those plants are getting enough maintenance to just get them to the planned phase out of 2030, but not likely a day beyond that. The way things are going, they’ll likely limp to the finish line, but not an inch past that. Similar things are said to me about the mines and their iron.
I’m suggesting we should strongly reconsider that. Pour some money into keeping both the power plants and the mines viable should we choose to extend their lives beyond 2030.
The Government of Saskatchewan and SaskPower should have some real serious discussions with Whitecap, and possibly other oil companies like CNRL, about the possibility of dramatically increasing carbon capture and producing as much CO2 as we can. That means putting carbon capture on Shand Power Station. But it could also mean either refurbishing Boundary Dam Unit 6 or, shockingly, building Shand Unit 2, and maybe even Unit 3, with High Efficiency Low Emissions (HELE) technology, designed from the ground up with carbon capture running from Day 1.
One might say that’s going to cost billions, and you’d be right. But I dare say doing so will cost less than just one 300 megawatt small modular reactor, whose price is not yet known, but previous SaskPower Minister Don Morgan said could run between $3 and $5 billion.
It’s going to take a long time to squeeze the first megawatt out of that first reactor. If everything goes to plan (and it never, ever goes to plan with nuclear), we might see the first SMR megawatt around 2034-35. Putting CCS on our existing coal fleet, and maybe, dare I say, expanding it, with HELE and CCS, could help bridge the gap in the interim until we get several SMRs up and running, and have become proficient in their operation. That’s baseload power that won’t go to zero like wind does every so often, and solar does every night.
Doing so would keep the Estevan economy rolling, not just from coal mining and power generation, but also oil production.
I’ve been writing about the Saskatchewan oil industry for almost 16 years now, and I am increasingly alarmed by the fact I haven’t seen the “next big thing,” in southern Saskatchewan. Drilling numbers keep on their slow decline. Companies like Crescent Point have largely lost interest and are pouring their capital expenditure money into exciting Alberta plays. That may be great for Alberta, but Saskatchewan needs to do something to keep things going here. That we’ve kept oil production relatively flat for the last 23 years is a small miracle. But if we don’t get a lot more new investment, it won’t stay that way.
The Sask Party provincial government a few years ago set a bold goal of increasing oil production from the current 454,000 barrels per day to 600,000 barrels by 2030. I asked Premier Moe about that in my year end interview with him last December. He said he thought it was a modest goal.
But as I pointed out to him, and Energy and Resources Minister Jim Reiter, I’m not seeing evidence of the province moving to make that happen.
This is something the Government of Saskatchewan, through its Crown corporation SaskPower, can do. If we tell the feds to stick it when it comes to shutting down coal by 2030, if we put carbon capture on existing units and even build new coal units with carbon capture, then supply that CO2 to companies like Whitecap, and maybe others like Canadian Natural Resources Limited, we could extend the life of our most prolific play in southeast Saskatchewan. We might even increase its production while we’re at it. All the while, we’d be ensuring baseload power production.
This plan’s impact would be measured in generations, not an election cycle, or a corporate quarter.
And it might also save us some money by reducing our nuclear expenditure.
But action has to be taken now. Because if we let those power plants and mines slide past the point of no return, an opportunity may be lost that we will be kicking ourselves for later.
We can’t let that happen.
Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of PipelineOnline.ca, and occasional contributor to the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. He can be reached at [email protected].
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President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday night declaring a national energy emergency.
Trump announced the order earlier in the day during his Inauguration Speech.
“We will drill baby drill,” Trump said. “We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export American energy all over the world. We will be a rich nation again and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it.”
The order states that high energy prices are an “active threat to the American people.”
“The policies of the previous administration have driven our Nation into a national emergency, where a precariously inadequate and intermittent energy supply, and an increasingly unreliable grid, require swift and decisive action,” the order said. “In light of these findings, I hereby declare a national emergency.”
To solve high prices and remedy the “numerous problems” with America’s energy infrastructure, the order stated that the delivery of energy infrastructure must be “expedited” and the nation’s energy supply facilitated “to the fullest extent possible.”
This was one of many executive orders the president signed on his first day in office.
In another order signed Monday night, Trump declared it was time to unleash American energy.
“In recent years, burdensome and ideologically motivated regulations have impeded the development of these resources, limited the generation of reliable and affordable electricity, reduced job creation, and inflicted high energy costs upon our citizens,” the order said. “It is thus in the national interest to unleash America’s affordable and reliable energy and natural resources.”
All this will be done through encouraging energy exploration, the elimination the electric vehicle mandates, and safeguarding “the American people’s freedom to choose from a variety of goods and appliances.”
The order promises these measures will “restore American prosperity,” “establish our position as the leading producer,” and “protect the United States’s economic and national security and military preparedness.”
In an earlier signing of executive orders in front of a crowd of supporters at the Capital One Arena, Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Accords.
Elyse Apel is an apprentice reporter with The Center Square, covering Georgia and North Carolina. She is a 2024 graduate of Hillsdale College.
President Donald Trump issued an executive order Monday to remove the United States from the Paris Agreement.
The United States joins Iran, Libya, and Yemen as countries not part of the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global warming, the New York Times reported. Trump had previously pulled out of the agreement during his first term, only to see his successor, former president Joe Biden, re-enter it in 2021 after taking office.
This decision aims to increase fossil fuel production and reduce investment in clean energy technologies like electric vehicles and wind turbines, the outlet stated. Additionally, Trump notified the United Nations, which manages the Paris Agreement, of the U.S.’s withdrawal with a signed letter, setting the official exit to occur one year after its submission.
Trump has said in the past that the U.S. involvement in the Paris agreement harms America’s economic competitiveness and would not make a significant impact on the climate. He also said previously that the agreement was poorly negotiated and did not put American workers first.
The Biden administration implemented new emissions goals as part of its efforts to solidify its climate strategy. The Trump administration plans to deregulate the energy sector and roll back funding from Biden’s key climate initiatives. Since Nov. 5, members of Biden administration have distributed $1.6 billion in “environmental justice” grants, secured significant loans for green energy firms, empowered California regulators to influence the national auto market, and published a detailed analysis on the effects of liquefied natural gas exports, potentially hindering Trump’s efforts to expand them.
