Alberta
A Matter of Fact: Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault’s future view of Canada’s oil and gas sector is unrealistic

Canadian Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, speaks at the China pavilion during the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP15) in Montreal, Quebec, on December 14, 2022. Getty Images photo
From the Canadian Energy Centre Ltd.
Canada could play a key role in lowering global emissions by unlocking our LNG industry and helping Asian countries replace coal
Federal Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault is continuing to plot a painful course toward a short-sighted phase out of Canada’s world class oil and gas sector based on an unrealistic view of world’s future energy mix.
In an interview with Euractiv, Guilbeault said he supports the phase out of unabated fossil fuels, those without the technology to minimize emissions, by 2050 to align with the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Scenario, a path that is largely out of touch with the current global reality.
Based on that increasingly unlikely scenario, the minister said he anticipates Canada’s oil and gas sector will follow suit with a 50% to 75% reduction in the production of oil and gas by 2050, which would be devastating for our economy, hurt our economic allies, and make little to no progress towards reducing global emissions.
Here are the facts.
Fact: The IEA’s Net Zero Scenario is largely aspirational, not practical
Guilbeault’s vision of a massive global reduction of fossil fuel usage is growing even less likely amid a lingering energy crisis prompted by several years of declining investment in oil and gas followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The fact is, this year the world will use more oil and more coal than any time in human history.
According to the IEA’s latest short-term outlook, global oil use will hit a record high of 102 million barrels per day this year and is expected to grow to 106 million barrels per day by 2028. Last week, OPEC forecasted that by 2045, global oil demand will reach 110 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, demand for natural gas, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) is soaring.
By 2040, global LNG demand – driven primarily by growing Asian economies – is expected to reach 700 million tonnes, a more than 75 per cent increase from 2022. Demand for LNG is expected to outpace supply by the middle of this decade.
Relying on the IEA’s Net Zero scenario, Guilbeault said he believes oil use will decline to between 25-30 million barrels per day, a 75 per cent reduction. Rapid deployment of renewables, he said, would fill that void despite some significant hurdles that could hinder a sweeping transition.
The bottom line is pretty clear. In the IEA’s most likely scenario, oil and gas will still account for 47 per cent of the global energy mix in 2050, a reduction of 5 per cent from 2021. While the share of renewables will more than double, it is still expected only to account for 29 per cent of the world’s energy mix in 2050.
Fact: A rapid phase out of oil and gas would hurt Canada and its allies
Canada’s oil and gas sector is a critical part of our economy, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs from coast-to-coast, including thousands of jobsin manufacturing, environmental, and financial services tied to the industry, especially in Ontario and Quebec.
A recent analysis by commodity data firm S&P Global focused specifically on the oil sands suggests that efforts to meet federal emissions targets for 2030 would likely force the industry to slash production by up to 1.3 million barrels per day.
According to the analysis, that could result in the elimination of between 5,400 and 9,500 jobs. With just over 54,000 oil and gas extraction jobs in Canada, that would mean the elimination of as much as 17% of the workforce.
In addition to jobs, the industry is also an economic bulwark, generating $168 billion in GDP in 2021, about 7.2 per cent of Canada’s economic activity. Oil and gas also accounted for nearly a third of Canada’s exports in 2021, injecting $140 billon into the economy.
Amid the ongoing global energy crisis, some of Canada’s international allies have turned to Canada to be a potential key supplier as they look for stable and responsible suppliers to replace Russian oil and gas.
The leaders of Germany and Japan made direct appeals to Canada to supply more LNG to help meet their energy needs.
Yamanouchi Kanji, Japan’s ambassador to Canada, made it clear that some of our Asian allies see Canada as a key player in the world’s future energy, particularly when it comes to LNG.
“The world is waiting for Canada,” he said earlier this year. “Canada can and should play a very important role to support the energy situation not only in Japan and South Korea, but the world.”
Fact: Reducing global emissions starts with Canadian natural gas
If Canada is truly serious about tackling global greenhouse gas emissions, we could make a much bigger impact by supplying energy-hungry Asian countries with some of the cleanest LNG on the planet to replace coal.
Climate change is a global issue, not a local one.
Despite being one of the world’s largest energy producers, Canada is still only responsible for about 1.6 per cent of total global emissions.
Developing Asian counties, particularly China, have turned to coal to help power their growing economies. A switch to natural gas to generate power reduces emissions by 50 per cent on average, according to the IEA. Canadian natural gas shipped as LNG could perform even better, reducing emissions from coal by about 65 per cent, according to Energy for a Secure Future.
With analysts expecting world LNG demand to double over the next two decades, Canada could make a real measurable impact on lowering global emissions by unlocking its LNG potential.
A recent study by Wood Mackenzie found that Canadian LNG exports could reduce net emissions in Asia by 188 million tonnes per year through 2050. Put another way, that would be the annual equivalent of removing the emissions of all vehicles on Canadian roads, or wiping out nearly three time’s B.C.’s total emissions.
Meanwhile, a coalition of six companies representing 95 per cent of Canada’s oil sand production have jointly committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The Pathways Alliance is looking to harness emerging technology like carbon capture and storage as well as small modular nuclear reactors to reach that target.
The reality is that if Canada significantly curtails its oil and gas industry, other national producers, some of which lack Canada’s commitment to democratic ideals and the environment, will fill that void. This could see bad actors like Russia continue to maintain a strategic and economic advantage over Europe by maintaining European reliance on its energy.
Fact: Phasing out oil and gas would hurt Indigenous communities
Over the last decade, Indigenous communities have emerged as key players in Canada’s energy sector, allowing First Nations in many cases to create intergenerational opportunity for their people.
From pipelines to LNG terminals, dozens of Indigenous communities have entered into ownership agreements on major oil and gas projects.
In B.C., 16 First Nations will acquire a 10 per cent stake in the Coastal GasLink pipeline once it’s completed later this year. In Alberta, another 23 First Nation and and Métis communities are now approximately 12 per cent owners of seven operating Enbridge oil sands pipelines, the largest Indigenous energy transaction ever in North America.
And in northwest B.C., the Haisla Nation is 50 per cent owner of the proposed Cedar LNG project, which would be the first Indigenous-owned LNG terminal in the world.
“When Europeans, Asians and Americans think of Canada’s Indigenous peoples, they often think we oppose all energy development. We aren’t victims of development. Increasingly we are partners and even owners in major projects,” Haisla Nation Chief Councillor Crystal Smith said during an April press conference after leading a delegation of Indigenous leaders to meet key international diplomats.
Indigenous employment in Canada’s oil and gas sector has continued to grow, rising by more than 20 per cent since 2014 to reach an estimated 10,400 jobs in 2020.
Indigenous-owned businesses also benefit from the industry, with three major projects – the Trans Mountain Expansion, Coastal GasLink, and LNG Canada – spending some $9 billion with Indigenous- and locally-owned businesses.
2025 Federal Election
Next federal government should recognize Alberta’s important role in the federation

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
With the tariff war continuing and the federal election underway, Canadians should understand what the last federal government seemingly did not—a strong Alberta makes for a stronger Canada.
And yet, current federal policies disproportionately and negatively impact the province. The list includes Bill C-69 (which imposes complex, uncertain and onerous review requirements on major energy projects), Bill C-48 (which bans large oil tankers off British Columbia’s northern coast and limits access to Asian markets), an arbitrary cap on oil and gas emissions, numerous other “net-zero” targets, and so on.
Meanwhile, Albertans contribute significantly more to federal revenues and national programs than they receive back in spending on transfers and programs including the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) because Alberta has relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes and a younger population.
For instance, since 1976 Alberta’s employment rate (the number of employed people as a share of the population 15 years of age and over) has averaged 67.4 per cent compared to 59.7 per cent in the rest of Canada, and annual market income (including employment and investment income) has exceeded that in the other provinces by $10,918 (on average).
As a result, Alberta’s total net contribution to federal finances (total federal taxes and payments paid by Albertans minus federal money spent or transferred to Albertans) was $244.6 billion from 2007 to 2022—more than five times as much as the net contribution from British Columbians or Ontarians. That’s a massive outsized contribution given Alberta’s population, which is smaller than B.C. and much smaller than Ontario.
Albertans’ net contribution to the CPP is particularly significant. From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 per cent (on average) of total CPP payments paid to retirees in Canada while retirees in the province received only 10.0 per cent of the payments. Albertans made a cumulative net contribution to the CPP (the difference between total CPP contributions made by Albertans and CPP benefits paid to retirees in Alberta) of $53.6 billion over the period—approximately six times greater than the net contribution of B.C., the only other net contributing province to the CPP. Indeed, only two of the nine provinces that participate in the CPP contribute more in payroll taxes to the program than their residents receive back in benefits.
So what would happen if Alberta withdrew from the CPP?
For starters, the basic CPP contribution rate of 9.9 per cent (typically deducted from our paycheques) for Canadians outside Alberta (excluding Quebec) would have to increase for the program to remain sustainable. For a new standalone plan in Alberta, the rate would likely be lower, with estimates ranging from 5.85 per cent to 8.2 per cent. In other words, based on these estimates, if Alberta withdrew from the CPP, Alberta workers could receive the same retirement benefits but at a lower cost (i.e. lower payroll tax) than other Canadians while the payroll tax would have to increase for the rest of the country while the benefits remained the same.
Finally, despite any claims to the contrary, according to Statistics Canada, Alberta’s demographic advantage, which fuels its outsized contribution to the CPP, will only widen in the years ahead. Alberta will likely maintain relatively high employment rates and continue to welcome workers from across Canada and around the world. And considering Alberta recorded the highest average inflation-adjusted economic growth in Canada since 1981, with Albertans’ inflation-adjusted market income exceeding the average of the other provinces every year since 1971, Albertans will likely continue to pay an outsized portion for the CPP. Of course, the idea for Alberta to withdraw from the CPP and create its own provincial plan isn’t new. In 2001, several notable public figures, including Stephen Harper, wrote the famous Alberta “firewall” letter suggesting the province should take control of its future after being marginalized by the federal government.
The next federal government—whoever that may be—should understand Alberta’s crucial role in the federation. For a stronger Canada, especially during uncertain times, Ottawa should support a strong Alberta including its energy industry.
Alberta
Province announces plans for nine new ‘urgent care centres’ – redirecting 200,000 hospital visits

Expanding urgent care across Alberta
If passed, Budget 2025 includes $17 million in planning funds to support the development of urgent care facilities across the province.
As Alberta’s population grows, so does the demand for health care. In response, the government is making significant investments to ensure every Albertan has access to high-quality care close to home. Currently, more than 35 per cent of emergency department visits are for non-life-threatening conditions that could be treated at urgent care centres. By expanding these centres, Alberta’s government is enhancing the health care system and improving access to timely care.
If passed, Budget 2025 includes $15 million to support plans for eight new urgent care centres and an additional $2 million in planning funds for an integrated primary and urgent care facility in Airdrie. These investments will help redirect up to 200,000 lower-acuity emergency department visits annually, freeing up capacity for life-threatening cases, reducing wait times and improving access to care for Albertans.
“More people are choosing to call Alberta home, which is why we are taking action to build capacity across the health care system. Urgent care centres help bridge the gap between primary care and emergency departments, providing timely care for non-life-threatening conditions.”
“Our team at Infrastructure is fully committed to leading the important task of planning these eight new urgent care facilities across the province. Investments into facilities like these help strengthen our communities by alleviating strains on emergency departments and enhance access to care. I am looking forward to the important work ahead.”
The locations for the eight new urgent care centres were selected based on current and projected increases in demand for lower-acuity care at emergency departments. The new facilities will be in west Edmonton, south Edmonton, Westview (Stony Plain/Spruce Grove), east Calgary, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Cold Lake and Fort McMurray.
“Too many Albertans, especially those living in rural communities, are travelling significant distances to receive care. Advancing plans for new urgent care centres will build capacity across the health care system.”
“Additional urgent care centres across Alberta will give Albertans more options for accessing the right level of care when it’s needed. This is a necessary and substantial investment that will eventually ease some of the pressures on our emergency departments.”
The remaining $2 million will support planning for One Health Airdrie’s integrated primary and urgent care facility. The operating model, approved last fall, will see One Health Airdrie as the primary care operator, while urgent care services will be publicly funded and operated by a provider selected through a competitive process.
“Our new Airdrie facility, offering integrated primary and urgent care, will provide same-day access to approximately 30,000 primary care patients and increase urgent care capacity by around 200 per cent, benefiting the entire community and surrounding areas. We are very excited.”
Alberta’s government will continue to make smart, strategic investments in health facilities to support the delivery of publicly funded health programs and services to ensure Albertans have access to the care they need, when and where they need it.
Budget 2025 is meeting the challenge faced by Alberta with continued investments in education and health, lower taxes for families and a focus on the economy.
Quick facts
- The $2 million in planning funds for One Health Airdrie are part of a total $24-million investment to advance planning on several health capital initiatives across the province through Budget 2025.
- Alberta’s population is growing, and visits to emergency departments are projected to increase by 27 per cent by 2038.
- Last year, Alberta’s government provided $8.4 million for renovations to the existing Airdrie Community Health Centre.
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