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Energy

A balanced approach shows climate change has been good for us: Alex Epstein

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27 minute read

Alex Epstein

The most heretical idea in the world

My talk at Hereticon about the moral case for fossil fuels.

Last week I gave a talk at the second annual Hereticon conference, hosted by Mike Solana and the Founder’s Fund team. (Founder’s Fund is led by Peter Thiel, the famous entrepreneur and investor. See two of my past discussions with Peter here and here.)

Here’s the full transcript and Q&A. (Audience member questions are paraphrased to protect anonymity.) I’m hoping the video will be available soon.

Alex Epstein:

All right, so I’m going to start out by taking a poll of where the audience is. Here’s the question: What is the current state of our relationship with climate?

I’m going to give you four options. Are we experiencing: a climate catastrophe, climate problem, climate non-problem, or climate renaissance? Raise your hand when you hear the one that you think best reflects the current state of our relationship with climate.

  • Climate catastrophe — in most audiences, this would be much less of a minority view.
  • Climate problem — probably about half the room.
  • Climate non-problem — a bunch of people.
  • Climate renaissance — okay, that’s the record.

So here’s what’s interesting about this issue, what I would call the “designated expert” view. The view of the people we’re told to give us guidance on these issues is that we’re obviously in a climate catastrophe that’s becoming an apocalypse; maybe some will say a climate problem on the verge of catastrophe.

And yet empirically, if you look at how livable our climate is from a human-flourishing perspective, it’s undeniable that it’s never been better.

This is a chart of what’s happened in the atmosphere. We’ve put in more CO2, and that indeed has caused some warming and has other climate effects. But at the same time, the death rate from climate disasters—so storms and floods, extreme temperatures, et cetera—has gone way down. It’s gone down actually 98% in the last century.

This means that a typical person has 1/50 the chance of dying from a climate disaster compared to what somebody used to have. And if you look at things like damages, we’re not actually more threatened by climate. If you adjust for GDP, we’re safer from climate still.

The reason I raise this is: we have this situation where the supposed experts on something say that we have a catastrophe, and yet in reality, it’s never been better from a human-flourishing perspective. And this is independent of the future. So you could say, “Well, I think it’s going to get worse in the future.” But their view is about the present; they describe us as in a climate crisis or climate emergency now.

So what’s going on here? What’s going on here is very important because it shows that the mainstream “expert” view of fossil fuels and climate is not just based on facts and science, it’s based on a certain moral perspective on facts and science—because from a human flourishing perspective, we’re in a climate renaissance. What’s going on is what I call their moral standard or standard of evaluation.

The way they evaluate the world in a particular climate is not in terms of advancing human flourishing on Earth, but of eliminating human impact on Earth. And this is the dominant idea, this is the way we’re taught to think about climate: that a better climate, a better world, is one that we impact less and a worse one is one that we impact more.

I think this is the most evil idea. I think human beings survive and flourish by impacting nature. This idea that we should aspire to eliminate our impact is an anti-human idea. And I think that if we look at this issue from a pro-human perspective—from the perspective that a better world is one with more flourishing, not less human impact—that totally changes how you think about fossil fuels.

I’m going to give you a bunch of facts—but these are not right-wing facts or something. These are all either primary source facts or they are just mainstream climate science. What I’m doing differently is I’m looking at the facts and science from a consistently human flourishing perspective, and that’s something that unfortunately almost nobody else does.

But what’s good is I think if most people realize that they’re not thinking about it in a pro-human way, they’ll want to think about it in a pro-human way, and then we can really change energy thinking for the better.

If we’re going to apply this idea of advancing human flourishing as our standard, if we’re going to do it consistently, there’s basically one rule we need to follow, which is we need to be even-handed. By even-handed, I mean we need to carefully weigh the benefits and side effects of our alternatives, just as you would do if you were deciding to take an antibiotic: what are the benefits and side effects of this? How does that compare to the alternatives?

When it comes to fossil fuels and climate—and I want to focus on climate because there are other side effects of fossil fuels like air pollution and water pollution, but those aren’t really the reason people hate fossil fuels. Those have gone way down in the past few decades, and hatred for fossil fuels has gone way up. So it’s really about the climate issue.

When we’re thinking about fossil fuels and climate, there are four things we need to look at to be even-handed. And feel free to challenge this in the question period, but literally nobody has ever been able to challenge this, and I’ve debated every single person that was willing to debate.

So one is you need to look at what I call the general benefits of fossil fuels. Then you need to look at what I call the climate mastery benefits of fossil fuels. You need to look at the positive climate side effects of fossil fuels. And then of course, you need to look at the negative climate side effects of fossil fuels.

My contention is when you do this from a human flourishing perspective, it’s just completely obvious that we need to use more fossil fuels, and that this idea of getting rid of fossil fuels by 2050 is the most destructive idea, even though it’s literally the most popular political idea in the world today. Getting rid of fossil fuels is advocated by leading financial institutions, leading corporations, almost every government in the world has agreed to it. So it’s literally the most heretical thing you could say to say that we should use more fossil fuels, and yet I’m going to argue that it’s obvious and the mainstream view is just insane.

Let’s look at the general benefits of fossil fuels. What are the benefits we’re going to get if we’re free to use fossil fuels going forward that we’ll lose to the extent that we are not? And the mainstream view, epitomized by this guy Michael Mann, who’s one of our leading designated experts, is there really no benefits. He has a whole book on fossil fuels and climate, pictured here, and he says essentially nothing about the benefits of fossil fuels—and this is pretty conventional.

Now, I’m going to argue that the benefit of fossil fuels is literally that 8 billion people have enough energy to survive and flourish. And they are basically three points I think we need to get to get this. One is that fossil fuels are uniquely cost-effective. What somebody like Michael Mann and others have been saying for years, though it’s going out of favor, is that fossil fuels don’t really have any benefits because we can rapidly replace them with intermittent solar and wind.

And again, fortunately this is going out of favor now, but it never really made any sense. What we see if we look at the facts is fossil fuels have had 100 plus years of aggressive competition. They have had enormous political hostility for the last 20 years, and yet they’re still growing despite this. So there’s something special about them.

And then to further confirm this, the places that care most about cost-effective energy are committed to using more fossil fuels. So China has 300 plus new coal plants in the pipeline. And then of course, the AI data center world is doubling and tripling down on natural gas because that’s the most cost-effective thing.

By cost-effective, I mean four things. Affordability—how much can a typical person afford? Reliability—is it available when needed in the exact quantity needed? Versatility—can it power every type of machine, including things like airplanes and cargo ships that are hard to do with anything besides oil until we get a really good nuclear solution? And then scalability—is this available to billions of people in thousands of places?

I think the evidence is really clear, there’s nothing that can compare to fossil fuels in terms of making energy available to billions of people that’s affordable, reliable, and scalable.

And so what that means is to the extent we restrict fossil fuels, people have less energy, which brings me the second point about the benefits of fossil fuels, which is that it is the worst thing imaginable to deprive people of energy because energy determines how much we can flourish on Earth. By flourish, I mean live to our highest potential, so with lives that are long, healthy, and filled with opportunity. You can see, for example, in the cases of China and India, there’s a very strong correlation between energy use, which has dramatically gone up largely thanks to fossil fuels, and GDP and life expectancy.

And the basic reason is simple but profound. The more cost-effective energy is, the more we can use machines to be productive and prosperous. With machines, this naturally impoverished and dangerous world becomes an abundant and safe world. Without machines, life is terrible. Only fossil fuels can provide this for the vast majority of people.

So this is really an existential issue—and it becomes even stronger when you realize one final fact about the general benefits of fossil fuels, which is that the vast majority of the world is energy poor.

We have 6 billion people who use an amount of energy that we would all here consider totally unacceptable, and we have 3 billion people who use less electricity than a typical American refrigerator does.

So think about what this means—and maybe the most powerful area for me is to think about having a child.

My wife and I had our first child a little over four months ago. And if you’ve had a child, I’m sure you’ve had this exact experience where this tiny little fragile thing is born and you just think, “This is the greatest thing ever.” And then maybe soon after you have the thought, “The worst thing ever would be if something happened to him.”

And then you think about energy. Around the world, there are so many babies—particularly premature babies or any babies with any kind of challenges—where because they lack reliable electricity, they don’t have things like incubators, and millions of babies die. Millions of parents suffer the worst possible tragedy because they don’t have enough energy.

And yet we have a global movement saying, “You should not use the most cost-effective form of energy, which is fossil fuels.”

So this is really just the most important issue, and I think it’s supremely immoral that we’re trying to restrict the thing that billions of people need to survive and flourish.

Those are the general benefits of fossil fuels, which are just enormous, but that’s not even the only thing that our establishment ignores. There’s also very strong climate-related benefits, so what I call climate mastery benefits. How significantly does fossil fuel use, which is, again, a source of uniquely cost-effective energy, how much does that increase our ability to neutralize climate danger?

And this is really important because the more mastery you have over climate, the less any climate change, even a negative one, can be a problem. So for example, even for something like a drought—a drought can wipe out millions of people, but if you can do irrigation and crop transport, you can neutralize the drought.

And in fact, the more climate mastery you have, the more negatives don’t even become negatives. A thunderstorm that could wipe out a bunch of houses a few hundred years ago, that can become a romantic setting for a date now.

Mastery is that important. And yet our designated experts tell us there’s nothing to see here. The IPCC, which is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading authority on how to think about this issue has thousands of pages of reports, and yet not once do they mention climate mastery benefits of fossil fuels.

And yet, as I pointed out, we’ve had a 98% decline in climate-related disaster deaths as we’ve used more fossil fuels. And this is not just a coincidental correlation. There’s a very strong causal relationship because fossil fuels have powered heating and air conditioning, storm warning systems, building sturdy buildings. And then as I mentioned, drought: we’ve reduced the drought-related death through irrigation and crop transport by over 99%.

So fossil fuels haven’t taken a safe climate and made it dangerous; they’ve taken a dangerous climate and made it safe. And if we have such enormous climate mastery abilities, that should make us a lot less afraid of any kind of future. Now, we need to look at another category to be even-handed.

People wonder about the negative climate side effects—we’ll talk about those—but also what about the positive climate side effects?

People have this idea—I think because they have this idea that our impact is just this bad thing—that there’s no such thing as a good climate side-effect. And we have this idea of, “Oh, us impacting the climate just means a world on fire.”

But actually one of the major effects of putting a lot more CO2 in the atmosphere is you have a much greener world. There are very strong arguments that we have trillions of dollars in benefits in terms of increased crop growth that we need to take account of in our calculation.

And then warming. People think of warming as, “Oh, warming is terrible, it means the Earth is on fire.” But the fact is that far more people die of cold than of heat. And warming for the foreseeable future is expected to save more lives than it takes, particularly because—most people don’t know this, but it’s a mainstream climate science—warming occurs more in colder regions and less in hot regions. It’s not like the whole world’s going to become scorching if the world becomes more tropical at a fairly slow pace.

So then what about these negative side-effects? Well, if you factor in the climate mastery benefits, there’s really nothing that should scare us.

There are certainly negative side-effects, for example, increase of heat waves. That for sure will happen and continue to happen, and faster sea level rise than we would otherwise have. But there’s nothing that should remotely scare us.

If you look at mainstream climate science, which has a lot of biases, if you factor in our climate mastery abilities, there are no overwhelming impacts that they project.

For example, sea level rise is the most plausible problem, and yet extreme projections by the UN, the most remotely plausible extreme projections are 3 feet in 100 years. That’s something we can deal with pretty readily. We already have 100 million people living below high tide sea level.

So I return to my basic point. If we’re pro-human, including even-handed—and we really look at this issue of fossil fuels from a pro-human perspective—the world is going to be a much better place if we use more fossil fuels, and it’s going to be a horrifically bad place if we rapidly eliminate fossil fuels. And I say a corollary of this is that policy-wise, the obvious policy is energy freedom.

We need the freedom to produce and use all forms of energy, including nuclear and including solar and wind, if and when they can really provide reliable electricity. We need as much cost-effective energy as we can get, and that’s going to make the world a much better place.

So hopefully I’ve persuaded some of you of this in this direction. But I think the next logical question, particularly this room, is, “Well, what do we actually do about this?” Because it’s one thing to talk about this, but I’m really not interested in just talking about this and selling books and whatever. I’m interested in: how do we actually change energy policy for the better, which is going to require changing energy thinking for the better?

And I want to share with you my approach because it is an approach that’s working really well. And my motivation for coming here is mainly I want to get a bunch of talented people excited about this approach.

Some of you can maybe be hired by us, some of you can join us in different ways. So let me give you my basic approach—and it’s simple: make it really easy to be an ally of the truth.

Often when people have a view that’s controversial but true, they kind of like being controversial. I mean, look, we’re at Hereticon, we’re sort of celebrating being heretical. But I personally don’t really like being heretical. If I think I’m right and the world depends on it, I want the world to become conventional with the truth. And so what I’ve done for the last 17 years on this issue is I’ve thought as much as I can about, “How do I create resources that make it as easy as possible for people to understand the truth and communicate the truth to others?”

And there are basically four things that we’ve been working on for the past few years that I want make you aware of.

So what is this book, Fossil Future? This is designed to be a completely systematic guide to how to think about energy and climate from a pro-human perspective that gives you totally how to think about it and addresses every single factual issue you could ever want to address. So if you want to, you can just become totally bulletproof and clear by reading this book

Get Fossil Future on Amazon


The second thing is called Energy Talking Points. This has really been my biggest breakthrough in persuasion, because the idea here is let’s make it super easy. We break down every single issue imaginable into tweet-length talking points. So if you want to know anything about energy, environment, or climate from a pro-human, pro-freedom perspective, you can just go to energytalkingpoints.com.

Browse hundreds of Energy Talking Points


And now we have Alex AI. So if you go to alexepstein.ai, you can ask that thing anything, and it is really, really good at answering questions as me.

Try AlexAI for free

Energy

Trump’s Administration Can Supercharge America’s Energy Comeback Even Further

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Curtis Schube

One of the first executive orders President Trump issued was “Unleashing American Energy.”

It begins an effort to undo the harm caused by the Biden administration’s unprecedented assault on the American energy sector. It overturns President Biden’s own destructive executive orders, including those canceling oil leases and prioritizing environmental regulations over the good of the economy and producing reliable energy.

It also orders that unduly burdensome energy regulations be rescinded. Trump’s EO forthrightly states that its goal is to encourage energy production “to meet the needs of our citizens and solidify the United States as a global energy leader.”

This executive order takes the nation in a whole new direction. It orders the agencies to audit their policies to weed out burdensome regulations that impact energy development. It terminates the infamous Green New Deal. It prioritizes employment and economic impacts in energy policy. It also revokes a Jimmy Carter Executive Order to reduce the burden on environmental studies that notoriously hold up energy projects.

One reform that met less pomp and circumstance, but is not lacking in impact, is permitting reform. President Trump’s Order instructs agencies to “eliminate all delays within their respective permitting processes including … the use of general permitting and permit by rule.”

This type of permitting reform should impact all American lives for the better. We all know how difficult permits can be to obtain, even if on a smaller scale than energy. When making an addition to a house, for example, one must submit it to government and pray that everything is correct.

Then, the waiting game begins as the government reviews the application, requires possible alterations at the its whim, then, eventually at some point, the project can move forward. It can be expensive and time consuming, and sometimes may deter people from even trying.

The same applies on a larger scale. Permits for major projects, like an oil well, can take years, even a decade or longer, to jump through all of the hoops. And, as the federal government is the gatekeeper to many different varieties of activities that require a permit, whoever is in charge of the executive branch can cripple a project.

Permits by rule and  general permits simplify the process drastically and ease the burden on both the applicant and the government. They are simple and predictable. For both types of permits, the government will first pre-determine the required criteria for someone to meet before the permitted conduct can commence. The government will promulgate the standards for all to see and know.

The applicant, knowing exactly what is required to perform the permitted conduct, can get a project moving quickly. For a general permit, no contact with the government is even needed. A permittee can begin a project so long as it satisfies the pre-set standards.

For a permit by rule, the applicant simply has to certify to the government, in writing, that all the criteria have been met. In response, the government can only check to see if the correct certifications are made and then either approve it or return the certifications with an explanation of which ones are not met. This is done in a short period of time, such as 30 days.

In both cases, the government has no discretion on a case-by-case basis. Instead of focusing its efforts as a gatekeeper for permits, the government will only focus on permittees who have not met the criteria, but after the permittee has begun its project. The government’s role is focused on enforcement actions.

Both sides benefit from this system. For those who behave correctly, the permitting process does not hold up projects. For the government, the resource drain for overseeing permitting is drastically reduced. The government only has to focus its attention on the minority of parties.

This system also has a built-in deterrent. If a permittee were to begin a project, only to have the government shut the project down at a later time through an enforcement action, the permittee would lose a significant investment.

The true benefit is to the American people. If energy companies can have a quick and expedited form of permitting, then the supply of energy can expand quicker. This makes the cost of energy, and all products, cheaper. In the wake of natural disasters, rebuilding can happen quicker. Infrastructure can be put in place faster. The benefits go on and on.

Permitting reform, such as that referenced in President Trump’s Executive Order, is a fantastic first step toward a more efficient government. His agencies should take full advantage and convert as many permits as possible to a permit by rule or general permit as soon as possible.

Curtis Schube is the Executive Director for Council to Modernize Governance, a think tank committed to making the administration of government more efficient, representative, and restrained. He is formerly a constitutional and administrative law attorney.

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Economy

Newly discovered business case for Canadian energy could unleash economic boom

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From Resource Works

Canada has a hefty slate in recent years of big natural-resource projects that were abandoned, or put on a back burner, often because of government action or inaction.

One estimate is that Canada has seen $670 billion in cancelled resource projects since 2015, when Justin Trudeau became prime minister.

True, the Trudeau government in 2018 backed and took over the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion project, known as TMX. That’s been a success since May 2024, moving oil to U.S. and Asian buyers. It’s looking now to move more oil to Asia. And Ottawa is talking of First Nations getting some equity interest in it.

Many other major projects have been shelved or scrapped, though, some due to corporate economic decisions, but many due to governments.

One prime example was the Énergie Saguenay LNG project in Quebec. That $20-billion plan was fatally throttled in 2022 — on green grounds — by Quebec’s government and Trudeau’s minister of environment and climate change, Steven Guilbeault.

Now, with Trudeau leaving and a potential change federal government possible, there’s some early talk of reviving some projects. For example, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston has urged Ottawa to “immediately” revive the Energy East oil pipeline project.

And U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs on imports from Canada have underlined calls for new energy exports to new overseas customers.

We list below 31 projects that have been abandoned or shelved, or have not been heard from for years. They are listed in order of the year of cancellation, or the year they were last heard from.

Keltic LNG

This project was actually an LNG import facility that would then manufacture plastic pellets.  It  won its first government approval (from Nova Scotia) in 2007. But it never went ahead, and all approvals long ago expired.

Corridor Resources shale gas

Proposed in 2011, the idea was to produce from the huge shale-gas reserves in New Brunswick. But Corridor Resources (now called Headwater Exploration Inc)  was unable to find a partner. And in 2014 the N.B. government put a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) for gas; it is still in effect.

Dunkirk oil sands 

Proposed by the billionaire Koch brothers of the U.S. in 2014, but ditched later that year, this Alberta project was supposed to produce up to 60,000 barrels a day, using the in-situ steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process.

Kitsault LNG

Kitsault Energy proposed in 2013 an LNG-for-export project at the northern mining ghost town of Kitsault BC. It hoped to line up a pipeline partner, create an ‘energy corridor’, and to begin production in 2018. It said it was still working on cost estimates in 2014, and nothing was heard thereafter.

Carmon Creek oil sands

Shell proposed this in 2013, to produce 80,000 barrels a day. The company in 2014 said it would slow down the project while attempting to lower costs and improve its design. But in 2015, Shell gave up on it, giving a lack of pipelines to coastal waters as one reason.

Stewart LNG

The Canada Stewart Energy Group proposed in 2014 an LNG terminal near Stewart in northern BC. It aimed to produce 30 million tonnes a year, starting in 2017. It has not been heard from since 2014.

Watson Island LNG

This LNG terminal was proposed in 2014 by Watson Island LNG Corporation, to be located at Prince Rupert, with capacity to produce one million tonnes of LNG a year. There have been no updates since 2014, and the project’s website is no longer online.

Discovery LNG

Rockyview Resources was the developer of this LNG project at Campbell River on Vancouver Island, first proposed in 2014. It was a big plan, for 20 million tonnes of LNG a year, and would need a 300-km pipeline from the mainland. As of January 2018, Rockyview was reported still seeking partners, but there have been no updates since 2015.

Orca LNG

A Texas-based company got from Canada’s National Energy Board in 2015 a license to export 24 million tonnes of LNG a year, from a proposed plant at or near Prince Rupert. There has been no news from the developer since then.

New Times Energy LNG

New Times Energy proposed in 2015 to locate at Prince Rupert an LNG terminal capable of producing 12 million tonnes of LNG a year. Ottawa approved its export licence in 2016, but there has been no news of the project, or of any pipeline to feed it, since then.

Northern Gateway 

Journalist Tom Fletcher recently looked in Northern Beat at the idea of reviving the $7.9-billion Northern Gateway pipeline, first proposed in 2008 and shelved in 2016.

“One new project that could be reactivated is the Northern Gateway oil pipeline, snuffed out by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s environmental posturing.

“Already burdened by court challenges, Enbridge’s Northern Gateway was killed by Trudeau’s 2016 declaration that oil tankers shouldn’t be allowed near the ‘Great Bear Rainforest.’

“He is among many urban people who are unaware this faux-Indigenous name was dreamed up by professional environmentalists at a fancy restaurant in San Francisco, explicitly to create a barrier for Canadian oil exports to Asia. . . ..

“Those Asia exports have finally begun to flow in significant volumes through the recent Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which has been mostly at capacity since it opened.”

Fletcher notes that in 2021 then-Conservative leader Erin O’Toole campaigned on a promise to revive the Northern Gateway pipeline.

“Whether a new federal government can or wants to revive Northern Gateway is unknown. But combined with Coastal Gaslink, it would build on a northern resource corridor that could also include the already-permitted Prince Rupert Gas Transmission line now proposed by TC Energy and the Nisga’a government.

“The Prince Rupert line would supply a floating LNG plant (the Nisga’a Nation’s Ksi Lisims LNG project) and new power lines along the energy corridor could help serve the needs of the broad expanse of northern B.C. that remains off the grid.”

Muskwa oil sands

Another project of the Koch brothers in Alberta’s oil sands, proposed in 2012, this project was to produce 10,000 barrels per day. It was scrapped in 2016, with the developer citing “regulatory uncertainty.”

Douglas Channel LNG

This modest (0.55 million tonnes a year) floating LNG project was led by Alta Gas. The plan was for a $400-million floating terminal in Douglas Channel near Kitimat. It was shelved in 2016, with Alta Gas citing a global surplus in LNG, and low prices.

Triton LNG

At the same time as scrapping Douglas Channel LNG (above), Alta Gas and partner Idemitsu Kosan of Japan put a freeze on the Triton LNG project in the same area. It was proposed in 2013, and was to have produced up to 2.3 million tonnes of LNG per year.

Energy East 

Another classic and costly example of shelving was the $15.7-billion Energy East pipeline. This was proposed in 2013, the aim being to switch 3,000 km of the TransCanada gas pipeline to carry oil, and add another 1,500 km of oil pipeline and facilities. All this so it could move oil from Alberta and Saskatchewan to Quebec and New Brunswick refineries, for domestic use and for exports.

The project was strenuously attacked by environmental groups (and a number of First Nations) and a poll showed nearly 60% of Quebecers opposed it. Quebec politicians called for more stringent environmental rules to apply to it, and the Quebec government decided on a court challenge, to ensure the Quebec portion of the project met that province’s environmental laws and regulations.

Trans Canada (now TC Energy) then shelved the project in October 2017, citing “existing and likely future delays resulting from the regulatory process, the associated cost implications and the increasingly challenging issues and obstacles.” The project had already cost Trans Canada $1 billion.

(The same day, Trans Canada also scrapped its Eastern Mainline project, to add new gas pipeline and compression facilities to the existing system in Southern Ontario.)

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs soon sought to revive Energy East, and discussed it with Trudeau. He quoted Trudeau as saying he’d be willing to discuss the issue again if Higgs was able to get Quebec onside. But Trans Canada repeated its announced decision.

Now, with Trump threatening tariffs, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston is calling on Ottawa to approve the Energy East oil pipeline. He said Trump’s tariffs mean here is “urgency” to strengthen the country through projects such as Energy East.

Earlier, commentator Brian Zinchuk of Pipeline Online urged: “If (Conservative leader Pierre) Poilievre wins a massive majority, can we PLEASE build the Energy East Pipeline?

Zinchuk added: “So what could a newly empowered government with a massive majority do? Here’s a novel idea: Call up TC Energy and ask them to dust off their 2014 application to build the Energy East Pipeline. We’re going to need it.”

Mackenzie Valley Pipeline

This project was first proposed in the early 1970s to move natural gas from the Beaufort Sea to northern Alberta, and then to tie in to existing gas pipelines there.

Ottawa launched in 1974 a federal inquiry into the project. After three years (and at a cost of $5.3-million) inquiry commissioner Thomas Berger said in 1977 that the 1,220-km pipeline should be postponed for 10 years, estimating that it would take that long for land claims to be settled and for Indigenous Peoples to be ready for the impact of such a project.

Eventually, after another six years of review, the Mackenzie Valley pipeline was granted federal approval in 2011, subject to 264 conditions.

But by 2017 the initially estimated costs of $8 billion had risen to $16.2 billion, and the joint-venture partnership of Imperial Oil, ConocoPhillips Canada, ExxonMobil Canada and the Aboriginal Pipeline Group announced abandonment of the project, citing natural gas prices – but also the long regulatory process.

Said an Imperial Oil official: “Our initial estimate for the timing for the regulatory process was somewhere between 22 and 24 months. We filed for regulatory approval in October 2004 and we received final regulatory approval in 2011. I’ll leave it up to you to decide if that is a reasonable amount of time for a significant capital investment project.”

Prince Rupert LNG

Shell Canada took over in 2016 the BG Group’s back-burnered 2012 proposal for an $11-billion LNG terminal on Ridley Island, Prince Rupert. It was to produce 21 million tonnes of LNG per year. But in 2017, Shell shelved the project.

That also killed the $9.6-billion Westcoast Connector pipeline proposed by Enbridge in 2012. This was to build an 850-km natural gas pipeline corridor from northeast B.C. to Ridley Island to feed gas to Prince Rupert LNG.

There followed recently some thought that this Westcoast Connector pipeline could be revived, to feed the Nisga’a Nation’s proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project, but Ksi Lisims chose to take over the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline (PRGT).

Pacific Northwest LNG

Pacific NorthWest LNG proposed in 2013 a $36-billion LNG-for-export plant on Lelu Island south of Prince Rupert BC.

It was to produce up to 20.5 million tonnes of LNG a year, and would include a marine terminal for loading LNG on to vessels for export to markets in Asia.

As ever, the proposal ran into opposition from environmental and some (but not all) Indigenous groups. And in 2017, Malaysia’s Petronas and its minority partners (China’s Sinopec, Japan’s JAPEX, Indian Oil Corporation and PetroleumBrunei) decided not to proceed.

They cited “changes in market conditions.” But CEO Mike Rose of Tourmaline Oil, Canada’s largest natural-gas producer, pointed a finger at governments, saying “government dithering” played a role in the cancellation.

“They [Petronas] kept getting held up. . . .  All levels of government were trying to squeeze more money out of them.”

Rose said a “more effective, streamlined approval process,” would have seen Petronas make a final investment decision on the project three years earlier, when LNG prices were much higher.

(Petronas continues to be a 25% partner in the LNG Canada project, which goes online later this year.)

The Pacific NorthWest LNG plant would have been fed by TC Energy’s 900-km Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline (PRGT). The permits for that line now are owned by the Nisg̱a’a First Nation and partner Western LNG. They propose a route change so the line can feed the Nation’s planned Ksi Lisims LNG plant. The B.C. Environmental Assessment Office now is considering whether the pipeline’s permits are still valid.

Aurora LNG 

Nexen Energy, with Chinese and Japanese partners, proposed in 2014 the $28-billion Aurora LNG terminal on Digby Island, Prince Rupert. It would have produced up to 24 million tonnes of LNG a year. The partners ditched the plan in 2017, citing the economics.

WCC LNG

Exxon Mobil and Calgary-based Imperial Oil proposed in 2015 this $25-billion LNG export facility on Tuck Inlet, Prince Rupert. It was to produce some 30 million tonnes per year. The partners scrapped the project in 2018, without explanation.

Grassy Point LNG 

Australia’s Woodside Energy proposed in 2014 a $10-billion facility 30 km north of Prince Rupert, to produce up to 20 million tonnes of LNG per year. Woodside shelved the plan in 2018. It said it would focus instead on the Kitimat LNG project with Chevron Canada (but that also died on the drawing board.  (See ‘Kitimat LNG’ farther below)

Aspen oil sands 

An Imperial Oil project, proposed in 2013, was to produce up to 150,000 barrels of bitumen a day. The $7-billion project was put on hold in 2019.

Kwispaa LNG

Proposed in 2014, this was an $18-billion project for an LNG plant near Bamfield on Vancouver Island, with an associated natural-gas pipeline. It was to be developed by Steelhead LNG Corporation through a co-management partnership with the Huu-ay-aht First Nations. The plan was to produce 12 million tonnes a year, and later up to 24 million. Steelhead stopped work on it in 2019, and in 2022 Ottawa formally terminated the environmental-assessment window for the project.

Frontier Oil Sands 

Teck proposed this $20.6-billion mining project in Alberta’s oil sands in 2012, but gave up the idea in 2020. It would have had production capacity of about 260,000 barrels a day.

Kitimat LNG

Kitimat LNG was a $30-billion LNG-for-export plant at Kitimat BC, proposed in 2018 by Chevron Canada and Australia’s Woodside Energy. It was designed to produce up to 10 million tonnes of LNG a year.

Chevron sought to sell its share of the project but failed to find a buyer, and in the end Chevron and Woodside shelved the project in 2021.

Kitimat LNG would have been fed gas bv the proposed Pacific Trails Pipeline, a project by Chevron and Apache Corporation. Woodside Australia had bought Apache’s stake in the project for $2.75 billion in 2014. The pipeline plan has also been put away.

Goldboro LNG

Alberta energy company Pieridae proposed in 2011 an LNG plant on Nova Scotia’s east shore. The plan was to ship 10 million tonnes per year to Europe. But the project failed to win $925 million in federal funding, and Pieridae bailed out in 2021

Keystone XL 

The $8-billion Keystone XL pipeline was proposed in 2008 by TC Energy, to deliver Alberta oil to Nebraska, and then, through existing pipelines, to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The project got its key U.S. presidential permit from then-president Donald Trump in 2017. Work eventually began in 2020, with the Alberta government kicking in $1.5 billion, and a promise of a $6-billion loan guarantee, in hopes of completion in 2023.

But under pressure from environmental groups, U.S. president Joe Biden revoked the permit on his first day in office on January 20, 2021, citing the “climate crisis.”

So this was, then, a rare Canadian project cancellation engineered by the U.S., not by Canada.

Énergie Saguenay

In 2015 came GNL Québec’s $20-billion proposal to build an LNG plant at the port of Saguenay in Quebec.

The Énergie Saguenay project, backed by Ruby Capital of the U.S., would connect to TC Energy’s Canadian Mainline, the big natural gas pipeline that carries gas from Western Canada to markets in Canada and the United States. The connection would be via a 780-km pipeline from northeastern Ontario to Saguenay, proposed by Gazoduq Inc.

Énergie Saguenay said its plant would produce 10.5 million tonnes of LNG a year. (The LNG Canada plant in B.C. will produce up to 14 million tonnes a year.) Énergie Saguenay said it would export its LNG via the St. Lawrence and Saguenay Rivers. It spoke of 140-165 shipments per year

The project raised considerable interest, as Germany, Latvia and Ukraine were expressing interest in importing Canadian LNG. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz came to Canada in the summer of 2022 and asked Trudeau about LNG exports.

Trudeau, though, said he saw no business case for LNG exports to Europe, and said Canada could always send natural gas to the U.S., where Americans could turn it into American LNG and send that to Europe. (This was already happening, and continues.)

In the end, the Quebec government, which initially supported Énergie Saguenay, changed its mind and pulled the plug on environmental grounds.

Then Steven Guilbeault, federal minister of environment and climate change, hammered home the final coffin nail in 2022, saying: “The Énergie Saguenay Project underwent a rigorous review that clearly demonstrates that the negative effects the project would have on the environment are in no way justifiable.”

That regulatory rejection has led to a $20.12-billion international damage claim against the federal government by Ruby Capital.

Bear Head LNG

Bear Head Energy planned in 2014 to build an LNG-for-export plant on the Strait of Canso, Nova Scotia.  It was to send 12 million tonnes a year to Europe. But in 2023 Bear Head, under new ownership, announced plans instead to produce hydrogen for export.

Port Edward LNG

Planning started in 2019 for this $450-million small-scale LNG project, for a site east of Port Edward BC. It was to ship LNG overseas in containers, but the project was scrapped in 2024.

Enbridge Line 5

Under appeal is a U.S. court order to shut down, by 2026, this pipeline that carries Canadian oil to Ontario, by way of Wisconsin and Michigan. In the court case, the  Wisconsin-based Bad River Band, through whose territory the pipeline runs, seeks to have it shut down.

A U.S. district court ordered Enbridge in 2023 to shut down parts of the pipeline within three years and pay the band $5.2 million for trespassing on its land. Enbridge is appealing (and so is the Bad River Band, which wants an immediate shutdown.)

What’s next?

While there has been a little chatter about reviving some of the scratched projects, there have been no formal proposals for resurrections, and Canada’s current attention is on Donald Trump and his promised tariffs in imports from Canada

On the political front in Canada, national Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said in a recent speech in Vancouver: “By blocking pipelines and LNG plants in Canada, the Liberals have forced Canadians to sell almost all of our energy to the United States, giving President Trump massive leverage in making these tariff threats.”.

He said that that if he was prime minister, he would have approved pipelines such as Northern Gateway and Energy East, as well as giving fast-track approvals for LNG plants, thus giving Canada more export options.

And Poilievre promised to allow pipeline companies on First Nations lands to pay some of their federal tax to affected nations.

“Then these communities will have a very powerful incentive to say yes, and they can use some of that money to defeat poverty, build schools and hospitals and clean water and other essentials for their people.”

But now Canada has first to cope with Trump’s Fortress America economic-warfare plans.

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